Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing

TSMC makes chips for other companies. It does not design its own chips. Customers like Nvidia, Apple, and AMD send TSMC their chip designs, and TSMC manufactures them. TSMC makes almost all of the world's most advanced chips, the kind used in AI processors and smartphones.

The market still prices TSMC like a plain contract manufacturer, not like the company that makes almost every advanced AI chip. This differs from how it prices Nvidia or Broadcom, even as TSMC's own pricing power keeps growing. Press reports say TSMC raised 2026 wafer prices and plans a further rise in 2027 for advanced nodes. TSMC does not publish its prices.

For the gap to close, TSMC must keep turning its bigger capital budget into revenue at this year's pace. Its costly new fabs in Arizona and Japan must also ramp up without further delay, and their cost to gross margin must stay inside management's guidance. Investors want proof that demand outside AI, in phones and PCs, holds steady while this buildout continues. In October 2026, management said that higher component prices put pressure on these consumer markets.

A separate, harder problem is the discount tied to Taiwan-China tension. This piece is unlikely to close soon, since it depends on politics outside TSMC's control. The next data point is TSMC's Q4 2026 report and its first 2027 guidance, expected in mid-January 2027. If AI demand and pricing keep beating expectations over the next two to four quarters, the execution part of the gap can close, even if the geopolitical discount lasts for years.

1. Oct 15, 2026Failed

   Q3 2026 results: AI demand, margins and 2026 growthRevenue that meets the more than 40% 2026 growth target with stable gross margin passes; a lower growth target or margin pressure from overseas fabs fails.Outcome: Revenue growth beat the target, which management raised to about 44%, but gross margin fell to 66.4% from 67.7% in Q2 and the Q4 guide is lower again, partly because of overseas fab costs, so the margin was not stable.
2. Jan 15, 2027 · est.Pending

   Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidance2027 guidance with strong revenue growth, gross margin near the Q4 2026 guide of 65% to 67% and confirmed higher wafer prices passes; weak guidance, a larger margin cost from N2 and overseas fabs, or customer pushback on prices fails.
3. Q3 2027 · est.Pending

   Second Arizona fab starts 3 nm volume productionVolume production at the second Arizona fab in the third quarter of 2027, as management said in October 2026, with margin dilution inside guidance, passes; a delay or a larger margin hit than guided fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

• November 10, 2026TSMC's board approved its Q3 2026 financial statements. It approved a cash dividend of NT$9.0 per share for Q3 2026, up from NT$7.0 for Q2, with an ex-dividend date of March 11, 2027 and payment on April 8, 2027. It approved capital appropriations of about US$40.9 billion for advanced and mature capacity, fab construction and 2027 research and sustaining spending. It also approved an investment of up to US$500 million in a company for strategic semiconductor investments, and investments of up to US$500 million each in Anthropic and OpenAI.
• November 10, 2026TSMC reported October 2026 revenue of NT$586.9 billion, up 14.7% from September and up 59.7% from a year earlier. Revenue from January to October was NT$4,485.6 billion, up 43.3%.
• October 15, 2026TSMC reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue was NT$1,494.2 billion, up 50.9% from a year earlier and up 17.6% from Q2. In US dollars, revenue was US$46.72 billion, up 41.2% from a year earlier and above the guidance of US$44.6-45.8 billion. Gross margin was 66.4%, down from 67.7% in Q2, mainly because of the first ramp-up of N2 production. Diluted EPS was NT$29.43, up 68.7%. The 2 nm node gave 8% of wafer revenue, and 7 nm and smaller nodes together gave 79%. High-performance computing gave 68% of revenue and smartphones gave 21%.

Next earnings

Expected about January 15, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.

• 20-FAnnual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025Filed April 16, 2026 · tsm-20251231
• 20-FAnnual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2024Filed April 17, 2025 · Read it on sec.gov

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1046179)

• TSMC's near-term growth depends on AI chip demand staying strong. A slowdown from any major customer would hit TSMC's revenue growth quickly, since a small number of large customers drive much of its business. In 2025, the largest customer gave 19% of revenue, the second largest gave 17%, and the top ten gave 78%. Press reports name Nvidia and Apple as the two largest.
• Nearly all of TSMC's advanced chip production happens in Taiwan. Any disruption from geopolitical tension between Taiwan and China would be a major risk to the business.
• TSMC is spending a record amount on new factories, including plants in Arizona and Japan. If AI demand slows before this spending pays off, profit margins could fall.
• TSMC's pricing power depends on chip designers accepting higher wafer prices. If AI chip demand cools, customers could push back harder on future price increases, or shift some orders to lower-cost capacity at rivals like Samsung or Intel Foundry.

TSMC has a large net cash position, and debt does not limit its choices: cash flow can pay for its record build-out and higher dividends. The main financial risk is the location of its plants in Taiwan, not its balance sheet. Read more

Yield at the current rate

1.1% (current annual rate, at today’s price)

Dividend yield

0.9% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $413.35)

Paid per share

$3.853 in the last 12 months (4 payments)

Current annual rate

$4.428 ($1.107 × 4 a year)

Latest ex-dividend date

September 16, 2026, $1.107 per share

Dividends per share by year

From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 12.8% a year. From 2015 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 15.7% a year.

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.