By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- $328.60
- Analysts view
- Leaning bullish
- Discount category
- Close to intrinsic value
- Pick status
- Research only
- Next earnings
- Earnings Feb 22 · · estimated
- Market cap
- $11B
- Shares of Oct 6, 2026
- Yield at current rate
- 2.4%
- Current annual rate, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
- Dividend yield
- 2.3%
- Last 12 months, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
- P/E (trailing)
- 18.1
- Price of Nov 12, 2026
- EPS (trailing)
- $18.15
- 12 months to Sep 6, 2026
- 52-week range
- $282.00 – $442.35
- To Nov 12, 2026
- Beta
- 0.95
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 807K
- 3 months, to Nov 12, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- US sales have almost stopped growing and franchisees open fewer stores, and a return to low-single-digit US sales growth in 2027 can close the gap.
- Gap
- Can close. The Q4 2026 report with the 2027 outlook and the refinancing before July 2027 show whether US sales and store growth recover.
Price history
About
Domino's is the largest pizza company in the world, with 22,706 stores in more than 90 markets at September 6, 2026. Independent franchisees own 99% of the stores. Domino's earns royalties and fees, which are a percentage of each store's sales, and it sells dough, food and equipment to its US and Canadian franchisees from its own supply chain centers. In the first three quarters of 2026, the supply chain gave about 62% of revenue, but at a low margin, while royalties and fees gave most of the profit.
Outside the US, master franchisees run the stores in each country and pay royalties to Domino's. Customers order mostly online, for delivery or carryout. Global retail sales of all stores were more than $20.7 billion in the four quarters to September 6, 2026. Joe Jordan became CEO on October 1, 2026.
Thesis
Domino's trades at a discount because its US sales have almost stopped growing while consumers spend less, and because lower franchisee profit slows the opening of new stores, which is how Domino's grows. US same-store sales grew only 0.9%, 0.1% and 0.3% in the first three quarters of 2026, with lower average tickets and fewer items per order. On October 13, 2026, Domino's lowered its 2026 target to 125 to 150 net new US stores, and the CFO said that franchisee profit fell in dollars from last year.
International same-store sales were about flat, because the largest master franchisee, Domino's Pizza Enterprises, had problems. For the gap to close, US same-store sales must return to the low-single-digit growth that management targets, franchisee profit must grow again so that US openings speed up toward the long-term goal of 8,500 or more US stores, and international sales must recover in 2027. Domino's must also refinance about $1.32 billion of notes due in July 2027, which it expects to do at a higher interest rate.
The first test is the Q4 2026 report with the 2027 outlook, which management said will come in February 2027, and the refinancing before July 2027. If US sales and franchisee profit recover, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main risk is that weak low-income consumers and pizza price competition keep US sales flat for longer.
Checkpoints
- Feb 22, 2027 · est.PendingQ4 2026 results and 2027 outlookUS same-store sales growth above 1% and a 2027 outlook with more net new US stores than in 2026 pass; flat US sales or another cut to store growth fails.
- Q2 2027 · est.PendingQ1 2027 results: US sales and international recoveryUS same-store sales growth in the low single digits and positive international same-store sales pass; another quarter below 1% in the US fails.
- Jul 2027 · est.PendingRefinancing of the notes due July 2027A refinancing of the $1.32 billion of notes before July 2027 at an interest rate that keeps leverage near 4 times passes; a delay or a much higher cost that cuts buybacks fails.
Recent events
- October 13, 2026Domino's reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue was $1.19 billion, up 3.4%, and diluted EPS was $4.60, up 12.7%. US same-store sales grew 0.3% and international same-store sales grew 0.2%. Domino's lowered its 2026 target to 125 to 150 net new US stores and said that international same-store sales will be about flat for the year. The shares fell in trading before the market opened.
- October 6, 2026The board declared a quarterly dividend of $1.99 per share, payable on December 30, 2026.
- October 1, 2026Joe Jordan, the former Chief Operating Officer and President of Domino's US, became CEO. Russell Weiner became Executive Chairman Designate. Domino's announced this plan on June 22, 2026.
Show 3 older eventsHide older events
- July 20, 2026Domino's reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue was $1.19 billion and diluted EPS was $4.07, up from $3.81. US same-store sales grew 0.1% and international same-store sales fell 0.1%. The CEO said that the US fast-food industry had weak consumer demand.
- July 14, 2026The board added two directors and made Corie Barry its Lead Independent Director.
- April 27, 2026Domino's reported Q1 2026 results. US same-store sales grew 0.9% and international same-store sales fell 0.4%. The board approved a new $1.0 billion share buyback program.
Latest news and filings
- Last earnings
- October 13, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
- Next earnings
- Expected about February 22, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 6, 2026Filed · dpz-20260906
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled · dpz-20261002
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 14, 2026Filed · dpz-20260614
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KChange of directors or officers and Other company newsFiled · dpz-20260708
- 8-KChange of directors or officers and Investor disclosureFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled · dpz-20260421
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Mar 22, 2026Filed · dpz-20260322
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
Risks
- US consumers spend less on fast food. US same-store sales grew less than 1% in each of the first three quarters of 2026, and customers bought fewer items per order. Competitors also use deep price promotions. If sales stay flat, royalties grow only from new stores.
- Franchisee profit fell in dollars in 2026, and Domino's lowered its 2026 target for net new US stores to 125 to 150 on October 13, 2026. New stores are the main source of growth. If franchisees open fewer stores in 2027, both royalties and supply chain sales grow more slowly.
- Domino's has high debt. Its $4.77 billion of securitized notes were 4.2 times EBITDA at September 6, 2026, and its stockholders' deficit was $3.96 billion. About $1.32 billion of notes have an anticipated repayment date in July 2027, and Domino's expects to refinance them at a higher interest rate. If it does not refinance in time, the notes add interest of at least 5% a year, and almost all securitized cash flow goes to repay the debt.
- International sales depend on large master franchisees. Domino's Pizza Enterprises had problems in 2026, and the CFO did not expect it to improve meaningfully until 2027. A strong US dollar also lowers the value of foreign royalties.
- The CEO changed on October 1, 2026, and the Executive Chairman will retire in 2027. A new CEO can change pricing, marketing or the store growth plan. Higher cheese and other food costs can also lower franchisee profit.
Balance sheet
- Cash
- $229M
- Debt
- $4.8B
- Net debt
- $4.5B
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 4.0×
- EBITDA $1.1B, last 12 months
- Interest cover
- 5.1×
- times profit pays interest
- Credit line
- $249M
- undrawn
Cash against debt
debt covered by cashnet debt $4.5B
Leverage: net debt / EBITDA
low, under 2×medium, 2× to 4×high, over 4×
When the debt is due
The last debt is due in 2032.
Almost all of Domino's debt is securitized notes, which the royalties, fees and supply chain income of its US and international business secure. The fixed-rate notes were $4.77 billion at September 6, 2026, and the leverage ratio defined in the notes was 4.2 times trailing EBITDA, down from 4.5 times a year earlier. The CFO said on October 13, 2026 that Domino's is comfortable below the low end of its leverage target of 4 times while interest rates stay at current levels. The 2017 Ten-Year Notes ($940 million) and the 2018 9.25-Year Notes ($379 million) have an anticipated repayment date in July 2027, so they are current debt. Domino's expects to refinance them before that date, at a higher interest rate. Scheduled principal payments are $836 million in 2028, $648 million in 2029, $495 million in 2030, $928 million in 2031 and $470 million in 2032. The variable funding notes allow up to $320 million, with nothing drawn and $248.9 million available after letters of credit. Cash excludes $168 million of restricted cash. Interest cover is for the first three quarters of 2026. In those quarters, free cash flow was $460 million and buybacks were $305 million, and $1.15 billion of buyback authority was left. The stockholders' deficit of $3.96 billion comes from past recapitalizations and buybacks.
Dividends
- Yield at the current rate
- 2.4% (current annual rate, at today’s price)
- Dividend yield
- 2.3% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $328.60)
- Paid per share
- $7.71 in the last 12 months (4 payments)
- Current annual rate
- $7.96 ($1.99 × 4 a year)
- Payout ratio
- 40% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended December 28, 2025)
- Latest ex-dividend date
- September 15, 2026, $1.99 per share
Dividends per share by year
| 2016 | $1.52 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $1.84 | |
| 2018 | $2.20 | |
| 2019 | $2.60 | |
| 2020 | $3.12 | |
| 2021 | $3.76 | |
| 2022 | $4.40 | |
| 2023 | $4.84 | |
| 2024 | $6.04 | |
| 2025 | $6.96 |
From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 17.4% a year. From 2015 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 18.8% a year.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.
Questions about Domino's
What does Domino's do?
Domino's is the largest pizza company in the world, with 22,706 stores in more than 90 markets at September 6, 2026. Independent franchisees own 99% of the stores. Its market cap is $11B at the current price of $328.60.
When does Domino's report earnings next?
This is an estimate: Domino's may report on February 22, 2027. It last reported results on October 13, 2026.
Is Domino's stock below its intrinsic value?
Domino's stock is close to intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at Domino's?
The latest update is from October 13, 2026. Domino's reported Q3 2026 results.
What are the main risks for Domino's?
US consumers spend less on fast food. Franchisee profit fell in dollars in 2026, and Domino's lowered its 2026 target for net new US stores to 125 to 150 on October 13, 2026. Domino's has high debt.
How much debt and cash does Domino's have?
At September 6, 2026, Domino's had $4.8B of debt and $229M of cash.
Does Domino's pay a dividend?
Yes. The current annual dividend of Domino's is $7.96 per share. That is a dividend yield of 2.4% at the current price of $328.60. In the last 12 months, it paid $7.71 per share (2.3%). The latest ex-dividend date was September 15, 2026.
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