NVDASemiconductors (AI chips)
Nvidia
Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks
By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- $173.73
- Analysts view
- Very bullish
- Discount category
- Well below intrinsic value
- Pick status
- Top pick
- Next earnings
- Earnings Nov 17 ·
- Market cap
- $4.2T
- Shares of Aug 21, 2026
- Yield at current rate
- 0.6%
- Current annual rate, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
- Dividend yield
- 0.3%
- Last 12 months. Fewer payments or a raise
- P/E (trailing)
- 22.0
- Price of Nov 12, 2026
- EPS (trailing)
- $7.91
- 12 months to Jul 26, 2026
- 52-week range
- $148.80 – $243.37
- To Nov 12, 2026
- Beta
- 2.21
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 143M
- 3 months, to Nov 12, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- The market doubts that all of Nvidia's demand is organic and now also weighs a board investigation of its CEO, and broad growth, a stable gross margin and a clean investigation can close the gap.
- Gap
- Can close. The November 2026 report and the next two quarters show whether demand comes from many customers and whether gross margin stops falling, and the board investigation shows whether the CEO risk goes away.
Company guidance: Revenue of $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%, for Q3 fiscal 2027 (, Q2 fiscal 2027 earnings release (8-K))
Price history
About
Nvidia designs graphics processing units, called GPUs, and related hardware. Data centers use these chips to train and run AI models. Nvidia also sells networking equipment that links many chips together inside a data center.
Cloud companies and AI labs buy this hardware. This is most of Nvidia's revenue.
Thesis
The market prices Nvidia at a discount because some of its huge revenue growth may not be fully organic. Large buyers use debt, or financing Nvidia itself provides, to pay for chips. This makes some demand look circular, meaning Nvidia's own money may be funding purchases of its own chips. The Department of Justice is also checking whether Nvidia structured a license deal with AI startup Groq to avoid normal antitrust review.
In November 2026, Nvidia's board started an independent investigation, after press reports said that a foreign intelligence effort targeted CEO Jensen Huang. The reports link this to Megaspeed, a Singapore cloud customer that US prosecutors reportedly investigate for sending Nvidia chips to China. This adds key-person and export-control risk. Nvidia also expects a lower gross margin.
It guided the next quarter to about 74%, down from 75%, and its finance chief said that the margin will be lowest, at 71% to 72%, in the quarter after that. For the gap to close, revenue growth must keep coming from many customers, not just financed ones. The new Vera Rubin chip platform must also keep shipping widely. The board investigation must find no loss of Nvidia secrets and no export violation, and Huang must keep leading the company.
The Groq inquiry must end without a forced change to the deal, and gross margin must stop falling. The next tests are Nvidia's fiscal Q3 earnings call on November 17, 2026, and a closed-door House briefing that three committee chairmen asked Huang to give on November 18, 2026. The board gave no date for its findings, and a Justice Department decision on Groq could take longer, likely into 2027. If demand and margins hold up over the next two to three quarters, and the investigation finds no wrongdoing, the gap can close.
Checkpoints
- Nov 17, 2026PendingFiscal Q3 2027 results: gross margin and customer breadthGross margin near the 74% guidance and data center growth from many customers pass; a margin below guidance or growth that depends on financed buyers fails.
- Nov 18, 2026 · est.PendingHouse committees' closed-door briefing with Jensen HuangA briefing that leads to no new export limits or formal inquiry passes; a subpoena, a public hearing or new limits on Nvidia's sales fails.
- Feb 2027 · est.PendingFiscal Q4 2027 results: margin floor and Vera Rubin rampGross margin that holds at or above the 71% to 72% guidance while Vera Rubin ships widely passes; a further margin cut or a slow Rubin ramp fails.
- Q1 2027 · est.PendingBoard investigation findings on the foreign intelligence effortFindings that no Nvidia secrets or export rules were compromised, with Huang still CEO, pass; a security failure, a charge or a change of CEO fails.
- Q2 2027 · est.PendingHugging Face purchase closes after regulatory reviewA close in the first half of 2027 on the agreed terms passes; a block or a long delay by regulators fails.
- 2027 · est.PendingJustice Department decision on the Groq license dealAn inquiry that ends with no forced change to the Groq deal passes; a lawsuit or an order to undo the deal fails.
Recent events
- November 10, 2026The independent members of Nvidia's board hired Joon H. Kim, a former acting U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, and his law firm Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz to do the investigation that the board announced on November 8, 2026.
- November 8, 2026Nvidia's board started an independent investigation, after press reports said that CEO Jensen Huang was the target of a foreign intelligence effort. A committee of independent directors, with outside counsel, oversees it. The board said that it has no reason to believe that national security or Nvidia secrets were compromised, and that it has confidence in Huang. Huang stays CEO and said that he will cooperate fully.
- November 8, 2026In a message to employees, Jensen Huang apologized and said that he was unfaithful to his wife. Press reports say that the affair was with Alice Huang, a Megaspeed executive whom US officials reportedly see as a Chinese intelligence asset. She is not related to him.
Show 18 older eventsHide older events
- November 4, 2026The chairmen of three House committees (Foreign Affairs, the Select Committee on the CCP, and Intelligence) asked Jensen Huang to give a closed-door briefing on November 18, 2026. The topics are Nvidia's protection against foreign spying and his contacts with Alice Huang. This is a request, not a subpoena.
- October 29, 2026The New York Times reported that US intelligence believes China's Ministry of State Security recruited Alice Huang, an executive of Singapore cloud company Megaspeed, to target Jensen Huang. Press reports say that Megaspeed bought more than $4.8 billion of Nvidia equipment in about two years, and that US prosecutors investigate it for sending chips to China. Nvidia said that Megaspeed is a regional cloud customer and that it found the diversion claims false. Megaspeed denies any illegal export.
- October 28, 2026Nvidia said that it will hold its call on fiscal Q3 2027 results, for the quarter that ended October 25, 2026, on November 17, 2026.
- October 27, 2026Nvidia and Oracle said that Oracle Cloud Infrastructure will grow its clusters of Vera Rubin NVL72 systems to a scale of several gigawatts. Vera Rubin NVL72 systems and Vera CPUs are now generally available on Oracle's cloud.
- October 26, 2026Anthropic filed for its initial public offering. Its S-1 lists NVIDIA GPU compute deals through SpaceXAI (up to $120.5 billion), Nscale (about $44.6 billion) and Lambda (about $41.3 billion).
- October 19, 2026At an investment summit in Berlin, Nvidia announced commitments of nearly $10 billion to companies, universities and research institutions in Europe. Germany's government and Nvidia signed a joint plan to develop AI for factories, robots, machines and cars. Nvidia named four German start-ups that it plans to back, and Siemens agreed to work with Nvidia on AI-run factories. The press reports did not give the amount for Germany alone.
- October 2, 2026The Financial Times reported that Amazon is in talks to move about $8 billion of Nvidia Grace Blackwell chips into a separate company that borrows money, and to lease the chips back. These are talks only, and neither company made a comment.
- September 28, 2026Nvidia raised its share repurchase authorization by $150 billion. The total remaining authorization is now $235 billion, to be used through fiscal 2028.
- September 9, 2026The New York Times reported that the US Department of Justice is looking into whether Nvidia structured its license deal with AI chip startup Groq to avoid antitrust review. Reports put the deal at about $17 billion to $20 billion. The deal gave Nvidia a non-exclusive license to Groq's chip technology, and Nvidia hired Groq staff, including founder Jonathan Ross. The Department of Justice did not confirm the inquiry.
- September 3, 2026Nvidia agreed to buy AI model platform Hugging Face for about $11.9 billion, plus up to $1.0 billion of retention awards for staff. Nvidia expects the deal to close in the first half of 2027, after regulatory approvals.
- August 31, 2026Nvidia agreed to invest $3.5 billion in MediaTek, through most of a $3.9 billion convertible bond offering by MediaTek. MediaTek will let its customers use Nvidia's NVLink Fusion technology to design custom AI chips that connect to Nvidia systems. CEO Jensen Huang said that the deal is "not circular," but some analysts question this claim.
- August 26, 2026Nvidia reported Q2 fiscal 2027 results. Revenue was $96.2 billion, up 106% from last year. Data center revenue was $89.0 billion, up 117% from last year. Gross margin was 75.0%.
- August 26, 2026Nvidia guided Q3 fiscal 2027 revenue to $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%, and gross margin to about 74%. On the earnings call, the finance chief said that higher memory costs will make the gross margin lowest in Q4, at 71% to 72%, and that it will then be 72% to 73% in fiscal 2028. The outlook includes no data center revenue from China.
- August 26, 2026Nvidia said that it started production shipments of the Vera Rubin platform in August 2026. It expects Vera Rubin to be about 20% of data center revenue in Q3 fiscal 2027.
- August 17, 2026Nvidia agreed to guarantee part of the lease and power payments for an OpenAI data center campus in Pike County, Ohio, of about 4.25 gigawatts. The guarantees go to the landlord, SB Energy, are capped at $105 billion, and start with the first lease phase in fiscal 2029. OpenAI must pay Nvidia back for any amount Nvidia pays.
- July 1, 2026Nvidia named Nicholas Parker, a 26-year Microsoft executive, as Executive Vice President of Worldwide Field Operations, from about August 24, 2026. He replaces Ajay Puri, who leads Nvidia's sales and retires from the role after 21 years, and who stays as a senior advisor.
- May 20, 2026Nvidia reported Q1 fiscal 2027 results. Revenue was a record $81.6 billion, up 85% from last year, and data center revenue was $75.2 billion, up 92%. GAAP gross margin was 74.9%. The board added $80.0 billion to the share buyback authorization and raised the quarterly dividend to $0.25 per share, from $0.01.
- September 22, 2025Nvidia and OpenAI signed a letter of intent. Nvidia will invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI, step by step, as OpenAI deploys at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems.
Latest news and filings
- Last earnings
- August 26, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
- Next earnings
- November 17, 2026, as the company confirmed.
- 8-KOther company newsFiled · nvda-20260902
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jul 26, 2026Filed · nvda-20260726
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KNew material agreement and New debt or financial obligationFiled · nvda-20260817
- 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled · nvda-20260628
- 8-KShareholder vote resultsFiled · nvda-20260624
- 8-KOther company newsFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Apr 26, 2026Filed · nvda-20260426
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled · nvda-20260507
Risks
- Nvidia's board investigates reports that a foreign intelligence effort targeted CEO Jensen Huang, through a customer that US prosecutors reportedly investigate for chip diversion to China. Huang founded Nvidia and leads its strategy and its relations with large customers and governments. If the investigation finds a security failure, or if Huang must step back, Nvidia could face export limits, fines or a change in leadership.
- Nvidia first planned to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI, to help fund OpenAI's purchase of Nvidia chips for a 10-gigawatt data center buildout. In February 2026, Nvidia invested $30 billion in OpenAI's funding round. Nvidia also guarantees up to $105 billion of lease and power payments for an OpenAI data center campus in Ohio. This kind of vendor financing ties Nvidia's future revenue to the financial health of one customer. It makes some reported demand harder to separate from organic demand.
- Google, Amazon, and Microsoft each build their own AI chips. The research company TrendForce expects shipments of these custom chips to grow 44.6% in 2026, faster than the 16.1% it expects for GPUs. If this continues, custom chips will do a growing share of AI work that now runs on Nvidia GPUs.
- Nvidia expects a lower gross margin: about 74% in Q3 fiscal 2027 and 71% to 72% in Q4, down from 75% in Q2. The finance chief said that higher memory prices cause this. Costs that increase faster than prices can decrease profit, although revenue continues to grow fast.
- Nvidia's near-term outlook excludes China data center revenue, after a year of shifting US export rules for its chips. In September 2026, press reports said that the Department of Justice is checking whether Nvidia structured its license deal with AI startup Groq, which reports put at about $17 billion to $20 billion, to avoid normal antitrust review. Both issues add regulatory uncertainty to Nvidia's growth path.
Balance sheet
- Cash
- $56.6B
- Debt
- $33.5B
- Net cash
- $23.1B
- Interest cover
- 356×
- times profit pays interest
Cash against debt
debt covered by cash
When the debt is due
Credit ratings
- Moody's Aa1 · positive
- S&P AA · stable
Nvidia holds much more cash than debt, but the balance sheet does not show its largest calls on cash. These are $279 billion of supply and capacity commitments and $47.9 billion of stakes in private companies. Cash includes marketable debt securities, but not $42.8 billion of listed equity securities. Debt is senior unsecured notes at the parent, and it does not include $5.5 billion of operating lease liabilities. The notes increased in June 2026, when Nvidia issued $25.0 billion in seven tranches. $14.0 billion of these new notes falls due after five years. Interest cover is operating income divided by interest expense for the first half of fiscal 2027. The $25.0 billion commercial paper program was unused. S&P raised its rating to AA in June 2026. In August 2026, after the Ohio guarantee, Moody's and S&P affirmed their ratings. Nvidia also guarantees part of the lease and power payments for an OpenAI data center campus in Ohio, capped at $105 billion and starting from fiscal 2029. OpenAI must pay back any amount Nvidia pays. The cash and cash flow give room to keep buying back shares ($39.8 billion in the first half of fiscal 2027) and to invest. But the guarantees tie part of its future risk to the credit of one customer.
As of
Show 5 sourcesHide sources
- sec.gov /Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000075/nvda-20260726.htm
- investing.com /news/stock-market-news/moodys-affirms-nvidia-stock-aa1-rating-on-ohio-data-center-deal-93CH-4866178
- finance.yahoo.com /markets/stocks/articles/nvidia-locks-25b-high-grade-140843893.html
- sec.gov /Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000069/nvda-20260817.htm
- sec.gov /Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000119312526273139/d118718d424b5.htm
Dividends
- Yield at the current rate
- 0.6% (current annual rate, at today’s price)
- Dividend yield
- 0.3% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $173.73)
- Paid per share
- $0.52 in the last 12 months (4 payments)
- Current annual rate
- $1.00 ($0.25 × 4 a year)
- Payout ratio
- 1% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended January 25, 2026)
- Latest ex-dividend date
- September 10, 2026, $0.25 per share
Fewer payments or a raise. The last 12 months paid at least 25% less than the current annual rate. A payment may fall just outside the 12 months, or the company may have raised its dividend.
Dividends per share by year
| 2016 | $0.0121 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $0.0143 | |
| 2018 | $0.0153 | |
| 2019 | $0.016 | |
| 2020 | $0.016 | |
| 2021 | $0.016 | |
| 2022 | $0.016 | |
| 2023 | $0.016 | |
| 2024 | $0.034 | |
| 2025 | $0.04 |
From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 20.1% a year. From 2015 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 15.0% a year.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.
Questions about Nvidia
What does Nvidia do?
Nvidia designs graphics processing units, called GPUs, and related hardware. Data centers use these chips to train and run AI models. Its market cap is $4.2T at the current price of $173.73.
When does Nvidia report earnings next?
The company confirmed that it will report on November 17, 2026. It last reported results on August 26, 2026.
Is Nvidia stock below its intrinsic value?
Nvidia stock is well below intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at Nvidia?
The latest update is from November 10, 2026. The independent members of Nvidia's board hired Joon H.
What are the main risks for Nvidia?
Nvidia's board investigates reports that a foreign intelligence effort targeted CEO Jensen Huang, through a customer that US prosecutors reportedly investigate for chip diversion to China. Nvidia first planned to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI, to help fund OpenAI's purchase of Nvidia chips for a 10-gigawatt data center buildout. Google, Amazon, and Microsoft each build their own AI chips.
How much debt and cash does Nvidia have?
At July 26, 2026, Nvidia had $33.5B of debt and $56.6B of cash.
Does Nvidia pay a dividend?
Yes. The current annual dividend of Nvidia is $1.00 per share. That is a dividend yield of 0.6% at the current price of $173.73. In the last 12 months, it paid $0.52 per share (0.3%). The last 12 months paid at least 25% less than the current annual rate. A payment may fall just outside the 12 months, or the company may have raised its dividend. The latest ex-dividend date was September 10, 2026.
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