AFRMConsumer credit and payments
Affirm Holdings
Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks
By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- $65.84
- Analysts view
- Bullish
- Discount category
- Close to intrinsic value
- Pick status
- Research only
- Next earnings
- Earnings Feb 4 · · estimated
- Market cap
- $22B
- Shares of Oct 30, 2026
- P/E (trailing)
- 11.4
- Price of Nov 13, 2026
- EPS (trailing)
- $5.77
- 12 months to Sep 30, 2026
- 52-week range
- $42.10 – $90.44
- To Nov 12, 2026
- Beta
- 3.74
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 4.6M
- 3 months, to Nov 12, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- The market weighs the fast loan growth and rising profit of Affirm against loan losses and its need for steady funding, and steady credit results through 2027 can lift its value.
- Gap
- Can close. The Q2 fiscal 2027 report, expected in early February 2027, covers the holiday quarter and shows whether growth, loan losses and the margin stay on the guided path.
Company guidance: Fiscal 2027 GMV more than $65.25 billion; operating margin more than 14.75%; Q2 GMV $17.9 to $18.2 billion (, Q1 fiscal 2027 shareholder letter (8-K))
Price history
About
Affirm Holdings, Inc. (Affirm) is based in San Francisco, California. It offers loans that a person repays over time at online and in-store checkout, and the Affirm Card, which lets a person choose to pay over time. It earns network fees from merchants, interest on loans and gains on loan sales.
It sells loans to capital partners and funds the rest with warehouse lines and securitizations. The fiscal year ends on June 30. GMV was $14.4 billion in Q1 fiscal 2027, the quarter ended September 30, 2026, and revenue was $1,262 million.
Affirm had 28.7 million active consumers and 6.0 million active cardholders. The Class A common stock trades on Nasdaq in US dollars. Affirm files 10-K and 10-Q reports.
Thesis
The price of Affirm depends on whether it can keep loan volume growing above 30% a year while credit losses and funding costs stay low. In Q1 fiscal 2027 GMV grew 34%, revenue grew 35% and operating income rose to $187.1 million from $63.7 million. The provision for credit losses grew 59% to $259.4 million, faster than revenue, and Affirm depends on loan buyers, warehouse lines and securitizations, which depend on credit markets. Amazon made 20% of GMV.
For the price to hold or rise, four things must be true. GMV growth must stay above 30%, with more volume from the Affirm Card. Loan losses must stay close to what the allowance expects. Funding must stay available with the equity capital that Affirm needs at 5% or less of its portfolio, as it guides.
The operating margin must stay above the 14.75% that Affirm guides for fiscal 2027. The Q2 fiscal 2027 report, expected in early February 2027, covers the holiday quarter and is the next test.
Checkpoints
- Feb 4, 2027 · est.PendingQ2 fiscal 2027 results (holiday quarter)GMV is in the guided range of $17.9 billion to $18.2 billion and the operating margin is in the range of 11.5% to 13.5%, and this passes; GMV below the range or a loss provision that grows much faster than revenue fails.
- Q2 2027 · est.PendingFirst Affirm Edge pilotsThe first pilots go live in the first calendar half of 2027, as Affirm expects, and this passes; no pilot by June 2027 fails.
Recent events
- November 5, 2026Affirm reported Q1 fiscal 2027 results. GMV rose 34% to $14.4 billion, revenue rose 35% to $1,262 million, revenue less transaction costs was $617 million, operating income was $187.1 million and net income was $164.2 million. It guided Q2 GMV to $17.9 billion to $18.2 billion and fiscal 2027 GMV to more than $65.25 billion.
- August 27, 2026Affirm reported fiscal Q4 2026 results. The board named Michael Linford, the chief operating officer, as President from August 27, 2026. Libor Michalek stays as President for engineering, risk, operations, product and design.
- June 24, 2026The board added Ryan Schneider, the former chief executive of Anywhere Real Estate and former head of the card business of Capital One, as a director from July 1, 2026.
Show 1 older eventHide older events
- June 18, 2026Affirm raised its unsecured revolving credit commitment from $330 million to $675 million and moved its maturity two years to June 18, 2029, with a condition tied to its 0% convertible notes due 2026.
Latest news and filings
- Last earnings
- November 5, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
- Next earnings
- Expected about February 4, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed · afrm-20260930
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 10-KAnnual report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed · afrm-20260630
- 8-KEarnings release and Change of directors or officersFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KNew material agreement and Change of directors or officersFiled · afrm-20260618
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026Filed · afrm-20260331
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025Filed · afrm-20251231
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled · afrm-20260113
Risks
- Credit losses can rise. The provision for credit losses was $259.4 million in Q1 fiscal 2027, up 59%, against revenue up 35%. Loans held for investment were $10.1 billion, and a weaker consumer would raise delinquencies.
- Funding depends on credit markets. Funding debt was $2.9 billion and notes issued by securitization trusts were $6.2 billion at September 30, 2026. If investors stop buying loans or spreads widen, funding costs rise and growth can slow.
- One partner is a large part of volume. Amazon made 20% of GMV in Q1 fiscal 2027, and the top five partners made 40%.
- Interest rates can raise costs. The outlook assumes that short-term benchmark rates rise during fiscal 2027, which raises the cost of funding.
- Warrants for partners add cost and dilution. Enterprise warrant expense is higher in Q2 fiscal 2027, and the exercise price of Amazon warrants was cut to $63.06 per share in November 2025.
Balance sheet
- Cash
- $3.0B
- Debt
- $10.3B
- Net debt
- $7.3B
Cash against debt
debt covered by cashnet debt $7.3B
At September 30, 2026, Affirm had cash and cash equivalents of $2,072.4 million and securities available for sale of $932.8 million. Loans held for investment were $10,114.6 million. Funding debt was $2,904.5 million and notes issued by securitization trusts were $6,221.2 million, and these fund and are secured by loans. Convertible senior notes had a carrying amount of $1,130.6 million: $221.3 million of 0% notes due November 15, 2026 and $920.0 million of 0.75% notes due December 15, 2029. The debt in the tiles is the sum of these carrying amounts, $10,256.3 million. Stockholders' equity was $5,751.2 million. Equity capital required for funding is expected to stay at or below 5% of the total platform portfolio.
Dividends
Affirm Holdings does not pay a dividend.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026.
Questions about Affirm Holdings
What does Affirm Holdings do?
Affirm Holdings, Inc. (Affirm) is based in San Francisco, California. It offers loans that a person repays over time at online and in-store checkout, and the Affirm Card, which lets a person choose to pay over time. Its market cap is $22B at the current price of $65.84.
When does Affirm Holdings report earnings next?
This is an estimate: Affirm Holdings may report on February 4, 2027. It last reported results on November 5, 2026.
Is Affirm Holdings stock below its intrinsic value?
Affirm Holdings stock is close to intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at Affirm Holdings?
The latest update is from November 5, 2026. Affirm reported Q1 fiscal 2027 results.
What are the main risks for Affirm Holdings?
Credit losses can rise. Funding depends on credit markets. One partner is a large part of volume.
How much debt and cash does Affirm Holdings have?
At September 30, 2026, Affirm Holdings had $10.3B of debt and $3.0B of cash.
Does Affirm Holdings pay a dividend?
No. Affirm Holdings does not pay a dividend.
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