FSLRThin-film solar semiconductor modules
First Solar
Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks
By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- $172.30
- Analysts view
- Leaning bullish
- Discount category
- Close to intrinsic value
- Pick status
- Research only
- Next earnings
- Earnings Feb 23 · · estimated
- Market cap
- $19B
- Shares of Oct 23, 2026
- P/E (trailing)
- 10.0
- Price of Nov 13, 2026
- EPS (trailing)
- $17.29
- 12 months to Sep 30, 2026
- 52-week range
- $165.86 – $320.95
- To Nov 12, 2026
- Beta
- 1.73
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 2.5M
- 3 months, to Nov 12, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- The market doubts how long US tax credits and trade rules will protect First Solar, and stronger bookings after the new minimum import prices through 2027 can lift its value.
- Gap
- Can close. The start of the Section 232 minimum import prices on December 4, 2026 and the Q4 2026 report with 2027 guidance, expected in late February 2027, show whether bookings and volume recover.
Company guidance: 2026 net sales $4.6 to $4.9 billion; adjusted EBITDA $2.55 to $2.75 billion; volume sold 16.0 to 17.0 GW (, Q3 2026 results release (8-K))
Price history
About
First Solar, Inc. (First Solar) is based in Phoenix, Arizona. It makes photovoltaic (PV) solar modules with a thin-film cadmium telluride (CdTe) technology that does not depend on the Chinese crystalline silicon supply chain. It is the largest PV module maker in the Western Hemisphere.
It runs five factories in the United States and has factories abroad, including in India. A sixth US factory, in South Carolina, started production in September 2026. Net sales were $1,231 million in Q3 2026 and $3,331 million for nine months.
The contracted backlog was 44.0 GW at September 30, 2026. The common stock trades on Nasdaq in US dollars. First Solar files 10-K and 10-Q reports.
Thesis
The price of First Solar depends on how long US policy supports modules made in the United States. Section 45X tax credits are most of its profit: management expects credits of $2.07 billion to $2.19 billion in 2026, against adjusted EBITDA of $2.55 billion to $2.75 billion. Under current law the credit phases down from 2030 and ends after 2032. In Q3 2026 the volume sold to third parties fell 22.0%, and First Solar lowered its 2026 guidance for volume and net sales, partly because customers terminated contracts.
For the price to hold or rise, four things must be true. The Section 232 minimum import prices for cells and modules must start on December 4, 2026 and lift US prices and new bookings. Customers must take the modules in the backlog of 44.0 GW. The second phase of the South Carolina plant must start in mid-2027 as planned.
The 45X credit must stay in law. The Q4 2026 report, expected in late February 2027, with the 2027 guidance, is the next test. If policy changes or more contracts end, the price can fall.
Checkpoints
- Dec 4, 2026PendingSection 232 minimum import prices startThe minimum import prices for solar cells and modules take effect on December 4, 2026 as proclaimed, and this passes; a delay or a removal fails.
- Feb 23, 2027 · est.PendingQ4 2026 results and 2027 guidance2026 adjusted EBITDA is in the guided range of $2.55 billion to $2.75 billion and the 2027 guidance shows higher volume, and this passes; a miss or lower 2027 volume fails.
Recent events
- October 29, 2026First Solar reported Q3 2026 results. Net sales fell 23% to $1.23 billion, net income was $571 million, or $5.30 per diluted share, and adjusted EBITDA was $744 million. It lowered 2026 guidance for net sales to $4.6 billion to $4.9 billion and adjusted EBITDA to $2.55 billion to $2.75 billion. The board authorized share repurchases of up to $500 million.
- September 30, 2026In September 2026, the first phase of the South Carolina factory started commercial production. First Solar expects the second phase to start in mid-2027.
- August 6, 2026A presidential proclamation under Section 232 set minimum import prices of $0.22 per watt for solar cells and $0.38 per watt for solar modules, effective December 4, 2026, and an additional 15% duty on imports of polysilicon products. First Solar expects a favorable effect on its volume and prices.
Show 2 older eventsHide older events
- February 24, 2026First Solar asked the US International Trade Commission to act against TOPCon solar products of ten groups of companies, which it says infringe a First Solar patent.
- February 13, 2026First Solar entered into a new five-year senior unsecured revolving credit facility of $1.5 billion and ended its prior facility of $1.0 billion.
Latest news and filings
- Last earnings
- October 29, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
- Next earnings
- Expected about February 23, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed · fslr-20260930
- 8-KEarnings release and Other company newsFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed · fslr-20260630
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KShareholder vote resultsFiled · fslr-20260513
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026Filed · fslr-20260331
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 10-KAnnual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025Filed · fslr-20251231
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KNew material agreement and End of a material agreementFiled · fslr-20260213
Risks
- Profit depends on the Section 45X credit. First Solar expects credits of $2.07 billion to $2.19 billion in 2026, and the credit phases down from 2030 and ends after 2032. A change in law would cut earnings.
- Customers can end contracts. Contract terminations lowered revenue in 2026, and First Solar is in court with BP Solar affiliates, which refused to pay for modules under supply agreements.
- Trade policy can change. The Section 232 minimum import prices and the duties on imports from Southeast Asia support US prices, but they can change or end.
- Volume fell. Modules sold to third parties fell 22.0% in Q3 2026, and 2026 volume guidance fell to 16.0 GW to 17.0 GW from 17.0 GW to 18.2 GW.
- Solar makers in China have much spare capacity, which can push module prices down.
Balance sheet
- Cash
- $1.6B
- Debt
- $108M
- Net cash
- $1.5B
Cash against debt
debt covered by cash
At September 30, 2026, First Solar had cash and cash equivalents of $1,576.0 million and marketable securities of $48.1 million. Total debt was $107.7 million, all working capital loans in India, and the India credit facility had no balance, against $373.7 million at December 31, 2025. Restricted marketable securities of $202.5 million fund the module collection and recycling program. The release gives a net cash balance of $1.5 billion, down from $2.4 billion at December 31, 2025, because of working capital and capital spending. The revolving credit facility of February 2026 has a capacity of $1.5 billion. First Solar expects capital spending of $0.6 billion to $0.8 billion and a net cash balance of $1.7 billion to $2.3 billion for 2026.
Dividends
First Solar does not pay a dividend.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 12, 2026.
Questions about First Solar
What does First Solar do?
First Solar, Inc. (First Solar) is based in Phoenix, Arizona. It makes photovoltaic (PV) solar modules with a thin-film cadmium telluride (CdTe) technology that does not depend on the Chinese crystalline silicon supply chain. Its market cap is $19B at the current price of $172.30.
When does First Solar report earnings next?
This is an estimate: First Solar may report on February 23, 2027. It last reported results on October 29, 2026.
Is First Solar stock below its intrinsic value?
First Solar stock is close to intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at First Solar?
The latest update is from October 29, 2026. First Solar reported Q3 2026 results.
What are the main risks for First Solar?
Profit depends on the Section 45X credit. Customers can end contracts. Trade policy can change.
How much debt and cash does First Solar have?
At September 30, 2026, First Solar had $108M of debt and $1.6B of cash.
Does First Solar pay a dividend?
No. First Solar does not pay a dividend.
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