WMGRecorded music & publishing
Warner Music Group
Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks
By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- $31.85
- Analysts view
- Bullish
- Discount category
- Well below intrinsic value
- Pick status
- Top pick
- Next earnings
- Earnings Nov 19 ·
- Market cap
- $17B
- Shares of Jul 31, 2026
- Yield at current rate
- 2.5%
- Current annual rate, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
- Dividend yield
- 2.4%
- Last 12 months, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
- 52-week range
- $23.34 – $35.42
- To Nov 12, 2026
- Beta
- 1.34
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 2.0M
- 3 months, to Nov 12, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- The market fears that AI music and slower streaming will hurt Warner Music, and continued subscription growth with higher margins and lower debt can close the gap.
- Gap
- Can close. The fiscal 2026 report in November 2026 and the next quarterly reports show whether streaming growth and margin gains continue.
Company guidance: Margin expansion at the high end of 150 to 200 basis points for fiscal 2026 (, Fiscal Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K Ex. 99.1))
Price history
About
Warner Music Group has two businesses. Recorded Music finds, records and markets artists, and earns money from streaming, physical sales, licensing and artist services. Its labels include Atlantic, Elektra, Parlophone and Warner Records. Music Publishing, through Warner Chappell Music, owns and administers the rights to songs and earns money from streaming, performance, mechanical and synchronization use.
Its fiscal year ends on September 30. Revenue was $1,864 million in the quarter to June 30, 2026. Robert Kyncl is CEO.
Thesis
The market prices Warner Music for the risk that streaming growth will slow and that AI-generated music will take listening time and lower the value of its catalog. The company also has net debt of $4.09 billion, and its CFO and COO left on July 31, 2026, with an acting CFO in his place. Results are strong now: in the quarter to June 30, 2026, revenue rose 10%, adjusted OIBDA rose 16% to $433 million and recorded music subscription streaming revenue rose 12%, helped by contractual increases in per-subscriber minimums with streaming services. For the gap to close, three things must be true.
Subscription streaming revenue must keep double-digit growth as streaming services raise prices. The adjusted OIBDA margin must reach the high end of the target of 150 to 200 basis points of expansion for fiscal 2026 and keep growing in fiscal 2027. Free cash flow must keep growing, so that the company can pay its dividend and reduce net debt. The fiscal 2026 report, on November 19, 2026, gives the first test, and the appointment of a permanent CFO is another check.
If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is a slowdown in streaming subscriptions or a shift of listening to AI music.
Checkpoints
- Nov 19, 2026PendingFiscal 2026 results and fiscal 2027 outlookAdjusted OIBDA margin expansion at the high end of the 150 to 200 basis points target and continued double-digit subscription streaming growth pass; slower subscription growth or a smaller margin gain fails.
- Feb 2027 · est.PendingQ1 fiscal 2027 resultsRevenue and adjusted OIBDA growth with a permanent CFO in place pass; a fall in streaming growth or no permanent CFO fails.
Recent events
- November 9, 2026Warner Music declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.20 per share on its Class A and Class B common stock. It is payable on December 1, 2026 to holders of record on November 20, 2026.
- September 24, 2026Warner Music hired Valentin Blavatnik, a member of its board, as Managing Director, Warner Recorded Music, North America and UK, and Corporate Development, from September 25, 2026.
- September 21, 2026Warner Music said that Carianne Marshall will step down as Co-Chair and Chief Operating Officer of Warner Chappell Music on September 30, 2026.
Show 3 older eventsHide older events
- August 31, 2026Reuters reported that the music publishing businesses of Warner Music and Sony Music sued Anthropic in a California federal court. They say that Anthropic used their song lyrics and sheet music without permission to train its Claude AI models. Anthropic said that it will defend itself and that such training is fair use.
- August 5, 2026Warner Music reported results for the quarter to June 30, 2026. Revenue rose 10% to $1,864 million, operating income rose 80% to $305 million and adjusted OIBDA rose 16% to $433 million. Net income was $200 million. The board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.20 per share.
- July 31, 2026Armin Zerza stepped down for personal reasons as CFO and COO. Louis Dickler, Senior Vice President, Global Controller and Chief Accounting Officer, became Acting CFO, and the company started a search for a new CFO.
Latest news and filings
- Last earnings
- August 5, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
- Next earnings
- November 19, 2026, as the company confirmed.
- 8-KOther company newsFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 8-KNew material agreementFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed · wmg-20260630
- 8-KEarnings release and Other company newsFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KEarnings release and Investor disclosureFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026Filed · wmg-20260331
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
Risks
- Most revenue comes from streaming. Slower subscriber growth, lower prices at streaming services or more listening to AI-generated music can reduce revenue growth and the value of the catalog.
- Total debt was $4.71 billion at June 30, 2026, and part of it is in euros. Interest costs and currency moves can reduce net income.
- Senior management changed in 2026: the CFO and COO left in July, and the Co-Chair and COO of Warner Chappell Music stepped down in September. A long search for a new CFO can slow decisions.
- Recorded Music revenue lost distribution revenue after the end of the distribution agreement with BMG, which reduced digital revenue by $10 million in the quarter to June 30, 2026.
Balance sheet
- Cash
- $618M
- Debt
- $4.7B
- Net debt
- $4.1B
- Interest cover
- 6.3×
- times profit pays interest
Cash against debt
debt covered by cashnet debt $4.1B
Warner Music funds its business with senior notes and term loans. At June 30, 2026, total debt was $4.71 billion and cash was $618 million, so net debt was $4.09 billion. Interest cover is operating income divided by interest expense for the nine months to June 30, 2026. Part of the debt is in euros, so currency moves change net income: the euro debt gave a $3 million gain in the quarter to June 30, 2026, after a $70 million loss a year earlier. Free cash flow was $633 million for the nine months, up 88%.
Dividends
- Yield at the current rate
- 2.5% (current annual rate, at today’s price)
- Dividend yield
- 2.4% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $31.85)
- Paid per share
- $0.77 in the last 12 months (4 payments)
- Current annual rate
- $0.80 ($0.20 × 4 a year)
- Latest ex-dividend date
- August 20, 2026, $0.20 per share
Dividends per share by year
| 2016 | $0.00 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $0.00 | |
| 2018 | $0.00 | |
| 2019 | $0.00 | |
| 2020 | $0.24 | |
| 2021 | $0.54 | |
| 2022 | $0.62 | |
| 2023 | $0.66 | |
| 2024 | $0.70 | |
| 2025 | $0.74 |
From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 25.3% a year.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.
Questions about Warner Music Group
What does Warner Music Group do?
Warner Music Group has two businesses. Recorded Music finds, records and markets artists, and earns money from streaming, physical sales, licensing and artist services. Its market cap is $17B at the current price of $31.85.
When does Warner Music Group report earnings next?
The company confirmed that it will report on November 19, 2026. It last reported results on August 5, 2026.
Is Warner Music Group stock below its intrinsic value?
Warner Music Group stock is well below intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at Warner Music Group?
The latest update is from November 9, 2026. Warner Music declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.20 per share on its Class A and Class B common stock.
What are the main risks for Warner Music Group?
Most revenue comes from streaming. Total debt was $4.71 billion at June 30, 2026, and part of it is in euros. Senior management changed in 2026: the CFO and COO left in July, and the Co-Chair and COO of Warner Chappell Music stepped down in September.
How much debt and cash does Warner Music Group have?
At June 30, 2026, Warner Music Group had $4.7B of debt and $618M of cash.
Does Warner Music Group pay a dividend?
Yes. The current annual dividend of Warner Music Group is $0.80 per share. That is a dividend yield of 2.5% at the current price of $31.85. In the last 12 months, it paid $0.77 per share (2.4%). The latest ex-dividend date was August 20, 2026.
Similar companies
- OMCOmnicomShares: AI disruption risk, New management, High debt
- Intrinsic value
- Below intrinsic value
- Gap
- Slow
- CSUConstellation SoftwareShares: AI disruption risk, New management
- Intrinsic value
- Close to intrinsic value
- Gap
- Slow
- ADSKAutodeskShares: AI disruption risk, High debt
- Intrinsic value
- Close to intrinsic value
- Gap
- Can close
- LPLALPL FinancialShares: AI disruption risk, High debt
- Intrinsic value
- Well below intrinsic value
- Gap
- Can close
- ROLRollinsShares: AI disruption risk, New management
- Intrinsic value
- Below intrinsic value
- Gap
- Can close
Loading your notes…
Read it all? Star WMG or pass, then go on to the next one.