ADBECreative & marketing software
Adobe
Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks
By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- $237.60
- Analysts view
- Mixed
- Discount category
- Well below intrinsic value
- Pick status
- Research only
- Next earnings
- Earnings Dec 9 ·
- Market cap
- $92B
- Shares of Sep 18, 2026
- P/E (trailing)
- 13.3
- Price of Nov 12, 2026
- EPS (trailing)
- $17.91
- 12 months to Aug 28, 2026
- 52-week range
- $190.12 – $362.71
- To Nov 12, 2026
- Beta
- 1.37
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 4.6M
- 3 months, to Nov 12, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- The market fears that AI tools will replace Adobe's paid creative seats, and the gap closes slowly only if ARR keeps growing at about ten percent under the new CEO.
- Gap
- Slow. Only several years of steady ARR growth can show that AI tools add to Adobe's business and do not replace its paid seats.
Company guidance: Non-GAAP EPS of $24.45 to $24.50 and total revenue of $26.576 billion to $26.626 billion for FY2026 (, Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K Ex. 99.1) FY2026)
Price history
About
Adobe makes software for creative work, documents and digital marketing. Its Creative Cloud apps include Photoshop, Lightroom, Illustrator and Premiere, and its Acrobat products create, edit and sign PDF documents. Its customer experience products, such as Adobe Experience Manager, help companies make and deliver content and run marketing campaigns. Adobe adds generative AI features, such as its Firefly models, to these products and also sells AI-first products.
Almost all revenue comes from subscriptions, which were $6.58 billion of $6.76 billion in revenue in Q3 FY2026. Adobe reports two customer groups: Business Professionals & Consumers, and Creative & Marketing Professionals. In April 2026, it bought Semrush, a platform for search and brand visibility.
Thesis
The market fears that generative AI tools from other companies will make Adobe's creative software less necessary. If people can make images, video and designs with simple AI prompts, demand for paid Creative Cloud seats and their prices can fall. Changes in leadership add doubt. The CFO left on June 15, 2026, the head of the creativity and productivity business left on September 27, 2026, and Anil Chakravarthy becomes CEO on December 1, 2026.
The results so far do not show a decline. In Q3 FY2026, revenue grew 13%, total ARR grew 11.2% to $27.50 billion, AI-first ARR grew more than 150%, and Adobe reached 1 billion monthly active users. For the gap to close, four things must be true. Total ARR must keep growing at about 10% or more, as in the FY2026 target of 10.2%, also without the help of acquisitions such as Semrush.
AI-first ARR must keep growing fast enough to replace any lost seat revenue. The new free and low-price users must turn into paid subscribers. The non-GAAP operating margin must stay near the 45% target for FY2026. The first evidence comes with the Q4 FY2026 report on December 9, 2026, which should also give the FY2027 targets under the new CEO.
The question about AI is a long one, so the gap can close only slowly, over the next two to three years of results.
Checkpoints
- Dec 9, 2026PendingQ4 FY2026 earnings and FY2027 targetsTotal ARR growth of about 10.2% for FY2026 and FY2027 targets with continued double-digit ARR growth pass; ARR growth below target or FY2027 targets with slower growth fail.
- Mar 15, 2027 · est.PendingQ1 FY2027 earnings: first quarter under the new CEOAI-first ARR that keeps growing fast and a non-GAAP operating margin near 45% pass; slower total ARR growth or a falling margin fail.
Recent events
- September 10, 2026Adobe reported record Q3 FY2026 results. Revenue grew 13% to $6.76 billion. GAAP EPS was $4.62 and non-GAAP EPS was $6.13. Total ARR was $27.50 billion, AI-first ARR grew more than 150%, and users passed 1 billion a month. Adobe raised its FY2026 targets to revenue of $26.576 billion to $26.626 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $24.45 to $24.50.
- September 3, 2026Adobe announced that Anil Chakravarthy, the head of its Customer Experience Orchestration business, becomes President and CEO on December 1, 2026. Shantanu Narayen will then retire as CEO and become Executive Chair. David Wadhwani, President of the Creativity & Productivity business, stepped down on September 27, 2026.
- June 24, 2026Adobe agreed to buy Topaz Labs, a private company with AI models that improve video and images, for about $340 million, mostly in cash. Adobe expects the deal to close in Q4 FY2026.
Show 3 older eventsHide older events
- June 11, 2026Adobe reported Q2 FY2026 results. Revenue grew 13% to $6.62 billion, and total ARR was $27.10 billion, including about $480 million from Semrush. GAAP results included a $70 million goodwill impairment for the Publishing & Advertising unit. CFO Dan Durn resigned, effective June 15, 2026, and Steve Day became interim CFO.
- April 28, 2026Adobe completed its purchase of Semrush Holdings, a brand visibility platform, for $1.87 billion, mostly in cash.
- April 21, 2026Adobe's board approved a new share repurchase program of up to $25 billion, which runs through April 30, 2030.
Latest news and filings
- Last earnings
- September 10, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
- Next earnings
- December 9, 2026, as the company confirmed.
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Aug 28, 2026Filed · adbe-20260828
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KChange of directors or officers and Investor disclosureFiled · adbe-20260902
- 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled · adbe-20260714
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended May 29, 2026Filed · adbe-20260529
- 8-KEarnings release and Change of directors or officersFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KChange of directors or officers and Shareholder vote resultsFiled · adbe-20260415
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Feb 27, 2026Filed · adbe-20260227
- 8-KEarnings release and Change of directors or officersFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled · adbe-20260126
Risks
- Generative AI tools from other companies can make images, video and designs with simple prompts. They can reduce demand for paid Creative Cloud seats or force lower prices. Adobe names AI and cloud-native companies among its competitors.
- Leadership changes at the same time. A new CEO starts on December 1, 2026, the CFO role has had an interim holder since June 15, 2026, and the head of the creativity and productivity business left on September 27, 2026. A change in strategy or execution can follow.
- Part of the reported growth comes from acquisitions. Semrush added about $480 million of ARR in Q2 FY2026, so ARR growth without acquisitions is lower than the reported 11.2%. A slowdown in the core business can be hidden for some quarters.
- Adobe has $1.35 billion of senior notes due in February and April 2027 and plans to refinance them. Higher interest rates would raise the cost, but the amount is small against its cash flow.
Balance sheet
- Cash
- $5.6B
- Debt
- $6.4B
- Net debt
- $761M
- Interest cover
- 36×
- times profit pays interest
- Credit line
- $1.5B
- undrawn, to June 2027
Cash against debt
debt covered by cashnet debt $761M
When the debt is due
Adobe funds itself mainly with its cash flow and has a small amount of debt. At August 28, 2026, it had $6.15 billion of senior notes at par and $250 million of commercial paper at a rate of 3.77%. The notes due on February 1 and April 4, 2027, $1.35 billion in total, are current debt, and Adobe plans to refinance them on or before their due dates. Interest rate swaps convert the fixed rate of some notes to a floating rate. Cash is cash and short-term investments. The $1.5 billion revolving credit facility was not used and runs to June 30, 2027. Interest cover is operating income divided by interest expense for the first nine months of FY2026. Operating cash flow was a record $2.52 billion in Q3 FY2026. Adobe spends most of its cash on buybacks: it paid $6.82 billion for its own shares in the first nine months of FY2026 and has a new $25 billion authorization through April 2030.
Dividends
Adobe does not pay a dividend.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026.
Questions about Adobe
What does Adobe do?
Adobe makes software for creative work, documents and digital marketing. Its Creative Cloud apps include Photoshop, Lightroom, Illustrator and Premiere, and its Acrobat products create, edit and sign PDF documents. Its market cap is $92B at the current price of $237.60.
When does Adobe report earnings next?
The company confirmed that it will report on December 9, 2026. It last reported results on September 10, 2026.
Is Adobe stock below its intrinsic value?
Adobe stock is well below intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at Adobe?
The latest update is from September 10, 2026. Adobe reported record Q3 FY2026 results.
What are the main risks for Adobe?
Generative AI tools from other companies can make images, video and designs with simple prompts. Leadership changes at the same time. Part of the reported growth comes from acquisitions.
How much debt and cash does Adobe have?
At August 28, 2026, Adobe had $6.4B of debt and $5.6B of cash.
Does Adobe pay a dividend?
No. Adobe does not pay a dividend.
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