Skip to content

ADBECreative & marketing software

Adobe

Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks

By

Updated

Price
$237.60
Analysts view
Mixed
Discount category
Well below intrinsic value
Pick status
Research only
Next earnings
Earnings Dec 9 ·
History
Market cap
$92B
Shares of Sep 18, 2026
P/E (trailing)
13.3
Price of Nov 12, 2026
EPS (trailing)
$17.91
12 months to Aug 28, 2026
52-week range
$190.12 – $362.71
To Nov 12, 2026
Beta
1.37
Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
Average volume
4.6M
3 months, to Nov 12, 2026

Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings

In short

Thesis
The market fears that AI tools will replace Adobe's paid creative seats, and the gap closes slowly only if ARR keeps growing at about ten percent under the new CEO.
Gap
Slow. Only several years of steady ARR growth can show that AI tools add to Adobe's business and do not replace its paid seats.

Company guidance: Non-GAAP EPS of $24.45 to $24.50 and total revenue of $26.576 billion to $26.626 billion for FY2026 (, Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K Ex. 99.1) FY2026)

Price history

About

Adobe makes software for creative work, documents and digital marketing. Its Creative Cloud apps include Photoshop, Lightroom, Illustrator and Premiere, and its Acrobat products create, edit and sign PDF documents. Its customer experience products, such as Adobe Experience Manager, help companies make and deliver content and run marketing campaigns. Adobe adds generative AI features, such as its Firefly models, to these products and also sells AI-first products.

Almost all revenue comes from subscriptions, which were $6.58 billion of $6.76 billion in revenue in Q3 FY2026. Adobe reports two customer groups: Business Professionals & Consumers, and Creative & Marketing Professionals. In April 2026, it bought Semrush, a platform for search and brand visibility.

Thesis

The market fears that generative AI tools from other companies will make Adobe's creative software less necessary. If people can make images, video and designs with simple AI prompts, demand for paid Creative Cloud seats and their prices can fall. Changes in leadership add doubt. The CFO left on June 15, 2026, the head of the creativity and productivity business left on September 27, 2026, and Anil Chakravarthy becomes CEO on December 1, 2026.

The results so far do not show a decline. In Q3 FY2026, revenue grew 13%, total ARR grew 11.2% to $27.50 billion, AI-first ARR grew more than 150%, and Adobe reached 1 billion monthly active users. For the gap to close, four things must be true. Total ARR must keep growing at about 10% or more, as in the FY2026 target of 10.2%, also without the help of acquisitions such as Semrush.

AI-first ARR must keep growing fast enough to replace any lost seat revenue. The new free and low-price users must turn into paid subscribers. The non-GAAP operating margin must stay near the 45% target for FY2026. The first evidence comes with the Q4 FY2026 report on December 9, 2026, which should also give the FY2027 targets under the new CEO.

The question about AI is a long one, so the gap can close only slowly, over the next two to three years of results.

Checkpoints

  1. Dec 9, 2026Pending
    Q4 FY2026 earnings and FY2027 targetsTotal ARR growth of about 10.2% for FY2026 and FY2027 targets with continued double-digit ARR growth pass; ARR growth below target or FY2027 targets with slower growth fail.
  2. Mar 15, 2027 · est.Pending
    Q1 FY2027 earnings: first quarter under the new CEOAI-first ARR that keeps growing fast and a non-GAAP operating margin near 45% pass; slower total ARR growth or a falling margin fail.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Recent events

  • September 10, 2026Adobe reported record Q3 FY2026 results. Revenue grew 13% to $6.76 billion. GAAP EPS was $4.62 and non-GAAP EPS was $6.13. Total ARR was $27.50 billion, AI-first ARR grew more than 150%, and users passed 1 billion a month. Adobe raised its FY2026 targets to revenue of $26.576 billion to $26.626 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $24.45 to $24.50.
  • September 3, 2026Adobe announced that Anil Chakravarthy, the head of its Customer Experience Orchestration business, becomes President and CEO on December 1, 2026. Shantanu Narayen will then retire as CEO and become Executive Chair. David Wadhwani, President of the Creativity & Productivity business, stepped down on September 27, 2026.
  • June 24, 2026Adobe agreed to buy Topaz Labs, a private company with AI models that improve video and images, for about $340 million, mostly in cash. Adobe expects the deal to close in Q4 FY2026.
Show 3 older events
  • June 11, 2026Adobe reported Q2 FY2026 results. Revenue grew 13% to $6.62 billion, and total ARR was $27.10 billion, including about $480 million from Semrush. GAAP results included a $70 million goodwill impairment for the Publishing & Advertising unit. CFO Dan Durn resigned, effective June 15, 2026, and Steve Day became interim CFO.
  • April 28, 2026Adobe completed its purchase of Semrush Holdings, a brand visibility platform, for $1.87 billion, mostly in cash.
  • April 21, 2026Adobe's board approved a new share repurchase program of up to $25 billion, which runs through April 30, 2030.

Latest news and filings

Last earnings
September 10, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
Next earnings
December 9, 2026, as the company confirmed.
  • 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Aug 28, 2026Filed · adbe-20260828
  • 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
  • 8-KChange of directors or officers and Investor disclosureFiled · adbe-20260902
  • 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled · adbe-20260714
  • 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended May 29, 2026Filed · adbe-20260529
  • 8-KEarnings release and Change of directors or officersFiled · Press release and exhibits
  • 8-KChange of directors or officers and Shareholder vote resultsFiled · adbe-20260415
  • 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Feb 27, 2026Filed · adbe-20260227
  • 8-KEarnings release and Change of directors or officersFiled · Press release and exhibits
  • 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled · adbe-20260126

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 796343)

Risks

  • Generative AI tools from other companies can make images, video and designs with simple prompts. They can reduce demand for paid Creative Cloud seats or force lower prices. Adobe names AI and cloud-native companies among its competitors.
  • Leadership changes at the same time. A new CEO starts on December 1, 2026, the CFO role has had an interim holder since June 15, 2026, and the head of the creativity and productivity business left on September 27, 2026. A change in strategy or execution can follow.
  • Part of the reported growth comes from acquisitions. Semrush added about $480 million of ARR in Q2 FY2026, so ARR growth without acquisitions is lower than the reported 11.2%. A slowdown in the core business can be hidden for some quarters.
  • Adobe has $1.35 billion of senior notes due in February and April 2027 and plans to refinance them. Higher interest rates would raise the cost, but the amount is small against its cash flow.

Balance sheet

Cash
$5.6B
Debt
$6.4B
Net debt
$761M
Interest cover
36×
times profit pays interest
Credit line
$1.5B
undrawn, to June 2027

Cash against debt

Cash$5.6B
Debt$6.4B

debt covered by cashnet debt $761M

When the debt is due

12 months$1.6B
Later$4.8B

Adobe funds itself mainly with its cash flow and has a small amount of debt. At August 28, 2026, it had $6.15 billion of senior notes at par and $250 million of commercial paper at a rate of 3.77%.

Dividends

Adobe does not pay a dividend.

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026.

Questions about Adobe

What does Adobe do?

Adobe makes software for creative work, documents and digital marketing. Its Creative Cloud apps include Photoshop, Lightroom, Illustrator and Premiere, and its Acrobat products create, edit and sign PDF documents. Its market cap is $92B at the current price of $237.60.

When does Adobe report earnings next?

The company confirmed that it will report on December 9, 2026. It last reported results on September 10, 2026.

Is Adobe stock below its intrinsic value?

Adobe stock is well below intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.

What changed recently at Adobe?

The latest update is from September 10, 2026. Adobe reported record Q3 FY2026 results.

What are the main risks for Adobe?

Generative AI tools from other companies can make images, video and designs with simple prompts. Leadership changes at the same time. Part of the reported growth comes from acquisitions.

How much debt and cash does Adobe have?

At August 28, 2026, Adobe had $6.4B of debt and $5.6B of cash.

Does Adobe pay a dividend?

No. Adobe does not pay a dividend.

Similar companies

  • CSUConstellation SoftwareShares: AI disruption risk, New management
    Intrinsic value
    Close to intrinsic value
    Gap
    Slow
  • CHKPCheck PointShares: New management, AI disruption risk
    Intrinsic value
    Well below intrinsic value
    Gap
    Can close
  • OMCOmnicomShares: AI disruption risk, New management
    Intrinsic value
    Below intrinsic value
    Gap
    Slow
  • EPAMEPAM SystemsShares: AI disruption risk, New management
    Intrinsic value
    Far above intrinsic value
    Gap
    Can close
  • VEEVVeeva SystemsShares: AI disruption risk, New management
    Intrinsic value
    Pricey
    Gap
    Slow

Loading your notes…

Read it all? Star ADBE or pass, then go on to the next one.