TSOil and gas steel pipes and tubes
Tenaris
Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks
By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- $61.21
- Intrinsic value
- Intrinsic value from an AI estimate
- Analysts view
- Bullish
- Discount category
- Close to intrinsic value (AI estimate)
- Pick status
- Research only
- Next earnings
- Earnings Feb 17 · · estimated
- Market cap
- $33B
- Shares of Dec 31, 2025
- Yield at current rate
- 3.8%
- Current annual rate, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
- Dividend yield
- 2.0%
- Last 12 months. Fewer payments or a raise
- 52-week range
- $37.69 – $64.60
- To Nov 12, 2026
- Beta
- 0.85
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 1.2M
- 3 months, to Nov 12, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- The market weighs the drilling cycle and higher steel costs against growing demand for pipes in North America and offshore, and a higher Q4 base for 2027 can lift its value.
- Gap
- Can close. The Q4 2026 report in February 2027 shows whether sales and EBITDA set a higher base for 2027.
Company guidance: Q4 2026 sales and EBITDA to rise on higher OCTG demand and prices in North America and more offshore shipments (, Q3 2026 results release (6-K))
Price history
About
Tenaris S.A. (Tenaris) is a Luxembourg company that makes seamless and welded steel pipes for the energy industry and other industrial uses. Its Tubes segment earned $2,927 million of the $3,102 million of net sales in Q3 2026. Tenaris shipped 976 thousand metric tons of pipes in the quarter. North America was the largest region, with $1,652 million of Tubes sales.
Gabriel Podskubka is Chief Executive Officer. Tenaris reports in US dollars and files 20-F and 6-K reports. The pick is an American depositary share (ADS), and the 6-K of November 4, 2026 says that each ADS equals two ordinary shares. Tenaris had 1,009,639,756 ordinary shares outstanding at September 30, 2026, and no treasury shares.
Thesis
The price of Tenaris depends on whether demand and prices for oil and gas pipes keep rising while Tenaris keeps its margin. In Q3 2026, net sales rose 5% from Q2 to $3,102 million, and operating income rose 21% to $598 million. EBITDA was $756 million, a margin of 24.4%. For nine months, EBITDA was $2,141 million, or 23.3% of sales, against 24.3% a year earlier, because raw material, energy and logistic costs rose.
Tenaris expects higher sales and EBITDA in Q4 2026, and says that Q4 should set a new quarterly baseline for 2027 if the geopolitical context does not change significantly. Tenaris had net cash of $3.8 billion at September 30, 2026, and it pays out a large part of its cash. The interim dividend of $0.59 per share ($1.18 per ADS) is payable on November 25, 2026. For the price to hold or rise, three things must be true.
Drilling in North America and offshore must keep growing. OCTG prices must stay above the rise in steel and energy costs. The Middle East conflict must not shut shipping routes again. The Q4 2026 report in February 2027 is the next test.
If these hold, the gap can close over the next year. If oil and gas drilling falls or tariffs change, the gap can last longer.
Valuation
AI estimate, checked by Kevin. How it is made
Show the method
The intrinsic value for Tenaris is an AI estimate from November 12, 2026. It is not an analyst's value. An AI research agent calculated it from the filings of Tenaris with the SEC. The pick is the American depositary share (ADS).
The 2025 annual report on Form 20-F (filed March 31, 2026) says that each ADS represents two shares, and the 6-K of November 4, 2026 says that each ADS equals two shares, so the estimate multiplies the value of one share by 2. Tenaris reports in US dollars. The method is a multiple of operating income after tax for 2027, plus net cash and its investments in non-consolidated companies, less non-controlling interests. The Q3 2026 release (6-K, November 4, 2026) gives operating income of $598 million for Q3 and $1,675 million for nine months, net cash of $3,779.7 million at September 30, 2026 (cash, other current investments and non-current investments, less borrowings), and an expectation of higher sales and EBITDA in Q4 2026 that sets a new baseline for 2027.
The interim statements (6-K, November 4, 2026) give investments in non-consolidated companies of $1,652.7 million, non-controlling interests of $268.0 million, and 1,009,639,756 shares outstanding at September 30, 2026, with no treasury shares. The estimate takes 2026 operating income as about $2,325 million, which is nine months plus $650 million for Q4, an assumption. Net income already has interest on the net cash, so the estimate uses operating income and adds the net cash. It adds the investments in non-consolidated companies at carrying value, which is an assumption.
The 2027 operating income, the tax rate of 22% and the multiples are assumptions. The low case assumes operating income of $2,200 million, because drilling slows and prices fall, at 10 times after-tax operating income. It gives $22.11 per share and $44.22 per ADS. The base case assumes $2,700 million, up about 16%, at 12 times.
It gives $30.15 per share and $60.29 per ADS. The high case assumes $3,100 million, up about 33%, at 14 times. It gives $38.65 per share and $77.29 per ADS. The estimate assumes weights of 25%, 50% and 25%.
The weighted intrinsic value is $60.52 per ADS.
Checkpoints
- Nov 25, 2026PendingInterim dividend of $1.18 per ADSTenaris pays the interim dividend on November 25, 2026, and this passes.
- Feb 17, 2027 · est.PendingQ4 2026 results and the 2027 baselineQ4 sales and EBITDA are higher than Q3, and Tenaris describes Q4 as a base for 2027, and this passes; a fall in EBITDA fails.
Recent events
- November 4, 2026Tenaris reported Q3 2026 results. Net sales were $3,102 million, up 4% from a year earlier. Operating income was $598 million and net income was $521 million. Earnings were $1.01 per ADS. Free cash flow was $268 million, after an increase of $270 million in working capital.
- November 4, 2026Tenaris said that it expects higher sales and EBITDA in Q4 2026, because of higher OCTG demand and prices in North America and more shipments to offshore projects.
- August 5, 2026The board of Tenaris approved an interim dividend of $0.59 per outstanding share ($1.18 per ADS), about $600 million. It is payable on November 25, 2026, with a record date of November 24, 2026.
Show 2 older eventsHide older events
- May 12, 2026Shareholders of Tenaris approved the cancellation of 62,355,174 treasury shares and an annual dividend of $0.89 per share ($1.78 per ADS). The balance of $0.60 per share was paid on May 20, 2026. Tenaris ended the second tranche of its third buyback program on March 3, 2026.
- May 8, 2026Tenaris agreed to buy Artrom Steel Tubes, a Romanian maker of steel and seamless pipes, for EUR 86 million. EU competition authorities cleared the deal on October 12, 2026. Tenaris expects to close it in Q4 2026.
Latest news and filings
- Next earnings
- Expected about February 17, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
- 20-FAnnual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2025Filed · ts-20251231
- 20-FAnnual report for the period ended Dec 31, 2024Filed · ts-20241231
Risks
- Demand depends on oil and gas drilling, which changes with energy prices. The conflict in the Middle East closed the Strait of Hormuz in March 2026, and the 6-K says that the full effect is not known.
- Costs can rise faster than prices. Raw material, energy and logistic costs rose in 2026, and the EBITDA margin for nine months fell by one percentage point.
- Tariffs on steel imports into the US and foreign exchange controls in Argentina can change margin. Both are listed in the notes to the interim statements.
- Tenaris holds investments in non-consolidated companies, mainly Ternium. The carrying value of its Ternium stake was $1,445 million, and the market value was $1,247 million at September 30, 2026. A fall in these values reduces equity income and equity.
Balance sheet
- Cash
- $4.1B
- Debt
- $337M
- Net cash
- $3.8B
Cash against debt
debt covered by cash
When the debt is due
At September 30, 2026, Tenaris had net cash of $3,780 million, as it defines it: cash of $806 million, other current investments of $2,145 million and non-current investments of $1,164 million, less borrowings of $337 million. Lease liabilities were $148 million. Tenaris paid dividends of $606 million and bought back shares for $90 million in nine months, and free cash flow was $1.2 billion. Shareholders' equity was $16,853 million. Investments in non-consolidated companies had a carrying value of $1,653 million.
Dividends
- Yield at the current rate
- 3.8% (current annual rate, at today’s price)
- Dividend yield
- 2.0% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $61.21)
- Paid per share
- $1.20 in the last 12 months (1 payment)
- Current annual rate
- $2.32 (the last two payments)
- Latest ex-dividend date
- May 19, 2026, $1.20 per share
Fewer payments or a raise. The last 12 months paid at least 25% less than the current annual rate. A payment may fall just outside the 12 months, or the company may have raised its dividend.
Dividends per share by year
| 2016 | $0.86 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $0.82 | |
| 2018 | $0.82 | |
| 2019 | $0.82 | |
| 2020 | $0.14 | |
| 2021 | $0.54 | |
| 2022 | $0.90 | |
| 2023 | $1.08 | |
| 2024 | $1.34 | |
| 2025 | $1.12 |
From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 51.6% a year. From 2015 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 2.2% a year.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.
Questions about Tenaris
What does Tenaris do?
Tenaris S.A. (Tenaris) is a Luxembourg company that makes seamless and welded steel pipes for the energy industry and other industrial uses. Its market cap is $33B at the current price of $61.21.
When does Tenaris report earnings next?
This is an estimate: Tenaris may report on February 17, 2027. It last reported results on November 4, 2026.
Is Tenaris stock below its intrinsic value?
Tenaris stock is close to intrinsic value. The source of the intrinsic value is: AI estimate. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at Tenaris?
The latest update is from November 4, 2026. Tenaris reported Q3 2026 results.
What are the main risks for Tenaris?
Demand depends on oil and gas drilling, which changes with energy prices. Costs can rise faster than prices. Tariffs on steel imports into the US and foreign exchange controls in Argentina can change margin.
How much debt and cash does Tenaris have?
At September 30, 2026, Tenaris had $337M of debt and $4.1B of cash.
Does Tenaris pay a dividend?
Yes. The current annual dividend of Tenaris is $2.32 per share. That is a dividend yield of 3.8% at the current price of $61.21. In the last 12 months, it paid $1.20 per share (2.0%). The last 12 months paid at least 25% less than the current annual rate. A payment may fall just outside the 12 months, or the company may have raised its dividend. The latest ex-dividend date was May 19, 2026.
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