AXONPublic safety software and devices
Axon Enterprise
Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks
By Kevin Amado
Updated
- Price
- $315.42
- Analysts view
- Bullish
- Discount category
- Below intrinsic value
- Pick status
- Top pick
- Next earnings
- Earnings Feb 23 · · estimated
- Market cap
- $26B
- Shares of Oct 30, 2026
- P/E (trailing)
- 101.4
- Price of Nov 12, 2026
- EPS (trailing)
- $3.11
- 12 months to Sep 30, 2026
- 52-week range
- $291.45 – $665.07
- To Nov 12, 2026
- Beta
- 1.48
- Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
- Average volume
- 1.2M
- 3 months, to Nov 12, 2026
Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings
In short
- Thesis
- The market doubts that Axon can keep fast growth while counter-drone equipment, memory costs and delayed federal deals pull margin down, and steady software growth through 2027 can lift its value.
- Gap
- Can close. The Q4 2026 report, expected in late February 2027, and the first 2027 quarters show whether software growth holds and the Connected Devices margin recovers.
Company guidance: 2026 revenue $3.61 billion to $3.63 billion; adjusted EBITDA $924 million to $929 million (, Q3 2026 results release (8-K))
Price history
About
Axon Enterprise, Inc. (Axon) is based in Scottsdale, Arizona. It makes TASER devices, body cameras, in-car video, drones and counter-drone systems, and cloud software for police and other public safety agencies. Its software includes evidence storage, records, real-time operations, 911 call handling and AI tools.
It has two segments: Connected Devices and Software & Services. Revenue was $909 million in Q3 2026 and $2,620 million for nine months. Software & Services made $437 million of the Q3 revenue.
Annual recurring revenue was $1,750 million at September 30, 2026. The common stock trades on Nasdaq in US dollars. Axon files 10-K and 10-Q reports.
Thesis
The price of Axon depends on whether its software growth can stay fast while hardware-heavy work pulls margin down. Software & Services revenue grew 43% in Q3 2026, and annual recurring revenue grew 40%. Total gross margin fell to 56.7% from 60.1%, because of counter-drone equipment, higher memory costs and new products. Management cut its 2026 revenue growth outlook to about 30%, because three Federal Dedrone deployments of about $130 million moved out of 2026.
It also announced up to $1.2 billion of new investments in Skydio. For the price to hold or rise, four things must be true. Software & Services growth must stay above 35%. The Connected Devices margin must stop falling as memory costs and product mix settle.
The delayed federal deployments must start to add revenue in 2027. The Skydio investments must stay within the cash and shares that the 10-Q describes. The Q4 2026 report, expected in late February 2027, and the first 2027 quarters are the next tests. If software growth slows or margin keeps falling, the price can fall.
Checkpoints
- Feb 23, 2027 · est.PendingQ4 2026 results and 2027 outlookQ4 revenue is in the guided range of $990 million to $1.01 billion and Software & Services growth stays above 35%, and this passes; revenue below the range or slower software growth fails.
- Q1 2027 · est.PendingSkydio tender offer and secondary purchases closeThe investments close within the up to $1.2 billion in the 10-Q and the cash part stays near $720 million, and this passes; a larger cash use fails.
Recent events
- November 5, 2026Axon reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue rose 28% to $909 million. Software & Services revenue rose 43% to $437 million. Net income was $57 million, or $0.68 per diluted share, and adjusted EBITDA was $236 million. Axon guided Q4 2026 revenue to $990 million to $1.01 billion and 2026 free cash flow to $350 million to $400 million. It said that it introduced Axon Body 5 and TASER Ion in October.
- November 5, 2026Axon announced investments of up to $1.2 billion in Skydio, a maker of autonomous drones. They raise its fully diluted stake from 15% to about 37%. Axon also became the exclusive public safety distributor of Skydio in the United States and Canada. A first investment of about $254.9 million closed on this date, half in cash and half in Axon shares. The rest closes in Q4 2026 and Q1 2027.
- October 7, 2026The Patent Trial and Appeal Board cancelled two of the three patents that Airspace Systems asserts against Axon and Dedrone, and it invalidated all but two claims of the third patent. The court case stays on hold during appeals.
Show 2 older eventsHide older events
- September 18, 2026Axon raised its revolving credit facility to $500.0 million, as part of the issue of $1.15 billion of 0% convertible senior notes due 2031. The initial conversion price is $652.06 per share. Axon paid $114.9 million for capped calls that cover the 1,763,640 shares under the notes.
- February 18, 2026Axon bought the rest of Carbyne, a maker of cloud emergency communications software, for about $551.7 million in cash, net of cash acquired.
Latest news and filings
- Last earnings
- November 5, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
- Next earnings
- Expected about February 23, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Sep 30, 2026Filed · axon-20260930
- 8-KNew material agreement and Investor disclosureFiled · axon-20261105
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KNew material agreement and New debt or financial obligationFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 8-KNew material agreement and New debt or financial obligationFiled · Read it on sec.gov
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Jun 30, 2026Filed · axon-20260630
- 8-KEarnings releaseFiled · Press release and exhibits
- 8-KChange of directors or officersFiled · axon-20260708
- 8-KShareholder vote resultsFiled · axon-20260528
- 10-QQuarterly report for the period ended Mar 31, 2026Filed · axon-20260331
Risks
- Margin is falling. Connected Devices gross margin fell to 43.0% in Q3 2026 from 49.9% a year before. Axon names counter-drone equipment and higher memory costs as the causes. More hardware-heavy deployments and further memory cost rises can lower margin more.
- Large deployments make revenue uneven. Axon moved about $130 million of Federal Dedrone revenue out of 2026. Counter-drone orders are large and their timing can change from quarter to quarter.
- Axon takes on more investment and debt. It has notes of $2,900 million in principal, and the Skydio investments use up to about $720 million of cash. Inventory rose to $579.2 million from $341.8 million at December 31, 2025.
- Lawsuits are open. An antitrust class action about the 2018 purchase of Vievu is pending. Two class actions about license plate reader laws in California and a patent suit against Carbyne are also pending. Axon denies all of them.
- Customers are public agencies. Budgets and procurement rules can delay orders. Axon reports net revenue retention of 126%, which shows that customers expand, but the sales cycle can still be long.
Balance sheet
- Cash
- $1.7B
- Debt
- $2.9B
- Net debt
- $1.2B
- Credit line
- $491M
- undrawn, to September 2031
Cash against debt
debt covered by cashnet debt $1.2B
At September 30, 2026, Axon had cash and cash equivalents of $1,458.8 million, short-term investments of $181.6 million and marketable securities of $14.8 million. Notes payable had a principal of $2,900 million: $1,000 million of 6.125% notes due 2030, $750 million of 6.250% notes due 2033 and $1,150 million of 0% convertible notes due 2031. The release gives net debt of $1.2 billion. Nothing was drawn under the $500.0 million revolving credit facility, and $490.9 million was available. Strategic investments were $924.9 million. Deferred revenue was $1,177.6 million in all. After the quarter, Axon agreed to pay up to about $720 million in cash for Skydio shares.
Dividends
Axon Enterprise does not pay a dividend.
Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026.
Questions about Axon Enterprise
What does Axon Enterprise do?
Axon Enterprise, Inc. (Axon) is based in Scottsdale, Arizona. It makes TASER devices, body cameras, in-car video, drones and counter-drone systems, and cloud software for police and other public safety agencies. Its market cap is $26B at the current price of $315.42.
When does Axon Enterprise report earnings next?
This is an estimate: Axon Enterprise may report on February 23, 2027. It last reported results on November 5, 2026.
Is Axon Enterprise stock below its intrinsic value?
Axon Enterprise stock is below intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.
What changed recently at Axon Enterprise?
The latest update is from November 5, 2026. Axon reported Q3 2026 results.
What are the main risks for Axon Enterprise?
Margin is falling. Large deployments make revenue uneven. Axon takes on more investment and debt.
How much debt and cash does Axon Enterprise have?
At September 30, 2026, Axon Enterprise had $2.9B of debt and $1.7B of cash.
Does Axon Enterprise pay a dividend?
No. Axon Enterprise does not pay a dividend.
Similar companies
- AVGOBroadcomShares: AI supplier
- Intrinsic value
- Far below intrinsic value
- Gap
- Can close
- PLTRPalantir TechnologiesShares: AI supplier
- Intrinsic value
- Pricey
- Gap
- Can close
- ORCLOracleShares: AI supplier
- Intrinsic value
- Below intrinsic value
- Gap
- Can close
- IBMIBMShares: AI supplier
- Intrinsic value
- Pricey
- Gap
- Can close
- SIEGYSiemensShares: AI supplier
- Intrinsic value
- Far above intrinsic value
- Gap
- Can close
Loading your notes…
Read it all? Star AXON or pass, then go on to the next one.