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RKLBSpace launch and spacecraft systems

Rocket Lab

Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks

By

Updated

Price
$66.15
Intrinsic value
Intrinsic value from an AI estimate
Analysts view
Bullish
Discount category
Far above intrinsic value (AI estimate)
Pick status
Research only
Next earnings
Earnings Feb 25 · · estimated
History
Market cap
$42B
Shares of Nov 4, 2026
EPS (trailing)
-$0.37
12 months to Sep 30, 2026
52-week range
$37.57 – $151.00
To Nov 12, 2026
Beta
3.16
Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
Average volume
20M
3 months, to Nov 12, 2026

Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings

In short

Thesis
Investors pay more than the AI estimate for the record backlog of Rocket Lab, and only a Neutron flight in 2027 with rising margins and a closed Iridium deal can earn this price.
Gap
Slow. The first Neutron flight in 2027, the Iridium closing and several years of gross margin gains show whether the record backlog turns into profit.

Company guidance: Q4 2026 revenue $270 million to $290 million; non-GAAP gross margin 39% to 41%; adjusted EBITDA loss $14 million to $20 million (, Q3 2026 results release (8-K))

Price history

About

Rocket Lab Corporation (Rocket Lab) is a space company based in Long Beach, California. It has two segments. Launch Services builds and flies the small Electron rocket and the HASTE rocket, and is building the medium Neutron rocket.

Space Systems builds spacecraft, components, optical systems and space robotics for commercial and government customers. Space Systems earned $214.8 million of the $267.8 million of revenue in Q3 2026. Electron has flown 93 times through September 30, 2026.

Sir Peter Beck is the founder, President, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman. The shares trade on Nasdaq in US dollars. In June 2026, Rocket Lab agreed to buy Iridium Communications.

Thesis

The market prices Rocket Lab above the AI estimate, because investors pay for a record backlog before it turns into profit, while a large purchase and a late rocket add doubt. Revenue rose 73% in Q3 2026 to $267.8 million, and backlog rose 52% since the end of Q2 to $3,573 million. Rocket Lab still lost $79.2 million from operations in the quarter, and its gross margin was about 34%. It has $4.70 billion of cash and securities, mostly from share sales, and almost no debt.

The Neutron rocket now flies no earlier than 2027. Rocket Lab also plans to buy Iridium for $54 per share in cash and stock, an enterprise value of about $8.0 billion, with closing expected in 2027. For the price to be earned, four things must be true. Backlog must convert to revenue at the pace of the 33% due within 12 months.

Gross margin must rise, as the Q4 guidance of 34% to 36% on a GAAP basis suggests. Neutron must fly in 2027. The Iridium purchase must close without hurting returns per share. The next tests are the Q4 2026 report in early 2027, the first flight of Neutron and the approval of the Iridium deal by the FCC.

If Neutron slips again or margins stay low, the price can fall toward the AI estimate.

Valuation

AI estimate, checked by Kevin. How it is made

Show the method

The intrinsic value for Rocket Lab is an AI estimate from November 12, 2026. It is not an analyst's value. An AI research agent calculated it from the filings of Rocket Lab with the SEC. Rocket Lab has losses, so earnings per share cannot give a value.

The method is a path from backlog and revenue to operating profit in 2030, valued at a multiple of after-tax operating profit and discounted to today, plus net cash. The Q3 2026 release (8-K, November 9, 2026) gives revenue of $702.2 million for nine months, and Q4 2026 revenue guidance of $270 million to $290 million, so the estimate takes 2026 revenue as about $982 million. The Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 gives backlog of $3,573 million, of which about 33% is expected to be recognized within 12 months, so backlog alone gives more than $1.1 billion of revenue in the next 12 months. The operating margin is the GAAP margin after stock-based compensation.

For nine months of 2026, the operating loss was $192.7 million, which is a margin of minus 27%. All figures for 2030 are assumptions. The low case assumes revenue of $2,400 million, up about 25% a year, an operating margin of 8%, tax of 21% and 20 times after-tax operating profit. The base case assumes revenue of $3,400 million, up about 36% a year, an operating margin of 18% and 25 times.

The high case assumes revenue of $4,600 million, up about 47% a year, an operating margin of 25% and 30 times. The value at the end of 2030 is discounted for 4.14 years at 10% a year, which is an assumption. Net cash is cash and cash equivalents of $4,447.7 million and marketable securities of $256.2 million, less debt of $3.0 million, at September 30, 2026 (10-Q). The estimate subtracts cumulative cash use from 2027 to 2030 of $1,400 million, $1,000 million and $600 million in the low, base and high cases, which is an assumption for operating losses, Neutron and capital spending.

The pending purchase of Iridium Communications is not in the estimate. The estimate assumes that the price Rocket Lab pays in cash and shares equals the value it gets, so the purchase does not add or remove value per share, and it counts the whole cash balance. The share count is 680,423,365: 632,020,915 common shares outstanding at November 4, 2026 (10-Q cover), 7,451,200 shares held as collateral under the collared forward contracts and assumed to be delivered later (10-Q), and 40,951,250 shares of Series A Convertible Participating Preferred Stock (10-Q), counted one for one because the company counts them as basic shares in its Q4 2026 guidance. The case values are $7.86, $17.41 and $33.02 per share.

The estimate assumes weights of 25%, 50% and 25%. The weighted intrinsic value is $18.93 per share.

As of

Show 2 sources

Checkpoints

  1. Feb 25, 2027 · est.Pending
    Q4 2026 results: revenue and gross marginRevenue lands in the range of $270 million to $290 million with GAAP gross margin of 34% to 36%, and this passes; revenue below the range fails.
  2. 2027 · est.Pending
    Neutron first launch and Iridium closingNeutron reaches orbit in 2027 and the Iridium deal closes with FCC consent, and this passes; a second delay of Neutron or a refused consent fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Recent events

  • November 9, 2026Rocket Lab reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue was a record $267.8 million, up 73%. Gross profit was $90.1 million. The operating loss was $79.2 million, and the net loss was $79.7 million, or $0.12 per share. Operating cash flow was positive at $7.2 million. Backlog was $3,573 million. Rocket Lab guided Q4 2026 revenue to $270 million to $290 million.
  • November 9, 2026Rocket Lab said it signed about $1 billion of new launch contracts in Q3 2026, including over $515 million for Neutron, which brings its launch backlog to 117 launches. It also signed $470 million of Space Systems contracts. The base Neutron price for several missions is now $70 million.
  • November 9, 2026In its Q3 10-Q, Rocket Lab said that it raised $3,911.9 million from at-the-market share sales in nine months of 2026, and that it received $437.9 million in September when it prepaid its collared forward contracts. It had 632,020,915 common shares outstanding at November 4, 2026.
Show 2 older events
  • October 14, 2026Rocket Lab said that the first launch of Neutron is now expected in 2027. It found voids in a composite dome of the propellant tank in October, and it must make a replacement forward dome and finish tank tests.
  • September 24, 2026Iridium stockholders approved the merger with Rocket Lab. On September 15, Rocket Lab ended its $3.6 billion bridge loan commitment before it drew any money, and Iridium's lenders agreed that its $1.775 billion of term loans can stay in place after the deal.

Latest news and filings

Last earnings
November 9, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
Next earnings
Expected about February 25, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 1819994)

Risks

  • Neutron is late, and 16 launches of backlog depend on it. A manufacturing issue in October 2026 moved the first flight to 2027, and the rocket may need more fixes before it flies.
  • Rocket Lab loses money. The operating loss was $192.7 million for nine months of 2026, and cash used in operations was $127.3 million. Gross margin must rise for the company to earn a profit.
  • The Iridium purchase is large and not yet approved. It needs FCC consent and foreign approvals. It needs over $3.0 billion of cash, and Rocket Lab will also guarantee about $1.8 billion of Iridium term loans.
  • A launch failure can stop Electron. Customers can end contracts with a termination fee, and a failure can raise insurance and repair costs.
  • Share sales dilute owners. Weighted average shares rose from 528.7 million in Q3 2025 to 652.3 million in Q3 2026, and Rocket Lab sold shares to fund the Iridium deal.

Balance sheet

Cash
$4.7B
Debt
$3.0M
Net cash
$4.7B

Cash against debt

Cash$4.7B
Debt$3.0M

debt covered by cash

At September 30, 2026, Rocket Lab had cash and cash equivalents of $4,447.7 million and marketable securities of $256.2 million, which is $4,703.9 million in all. Debt was only $3.0 million: $1.3 million of convertible notes and $1.7 million of long-term borrowings.

As of

Show 2 sources

Dividends

Rocket Lab does not pay a dividend.

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026.

Questions about Rocket Lab

What does Rocket Lab do?

Rocket Lab Corporation (Rocket Lab) is a space company based in Long Beach, California. It has two segments. Its market cap is $42B at the current price of $66.15.

When does Rocket Lab report earnings next?

This is an estimate: Rocket Lab may report on February 25, 2027. It last reported results on November 9, 2026.

Is Rocket Lab stock below its intrinsic value?

Rocket Lab stock is far above intrinsic value. The source of the intrinsic value is: AI estimate. This is general information, not advice.

What changed recently at Rocket Lab?

The latest update is from November 9, 2026. Rocket Lab reported Q3 2026 results.

What are the main risks for Rocket Lab?

Neutron is late, and 16 launches of backlog depend on it. Rocket Lab loses money. The Iridium purchase is large and not yet approved.

How much debt and cash does Rocket Lab have?

At September 30, 2026, Rocket Lab had $3.0M of debt and $4.7B of cash.

Does Rocket Lab pay a dividend?

No. Rocket Lab does not pay a dividend.

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