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LLYPharmaceuticals

Eli Lilly

Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks

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Updated

Price
$1,437.29
Analysts view
Bullish
Discount category
Far above intrinsic value
Pick status
Research only
Next earnings
Earnings Jan 29 · · estimated
History
Market cap
$1.4T
Shares of Oct 26, 2026
Yield at current rate
0.5%
Current annual rate, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
Dividend yield
0.5%
Last 12 months, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
P/E (trailing)
46.7
Price of Nov 12, 2026
EPS (trailing)
$30.81
12 months to Sep 30, 2026
52-week range
$850.51 – $1,460.00
To Nov 12, 2026
Beta
0.40
Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
Average volume
2.6M
3 months, to Nov 12, 2026

Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings

In short

Thesis
Investors pay a premium for Lilly's fast growth in obesity medicines, and the premium holds only if 2027 volume growth outpaces price cuts and the retatrutide filing stays on time.
Gap
Can close. The Q4 2026 report with 2027 guidance, expected in late January 2027, and the retatrutide submission in Q1 2027 show whether volume growth outpaces price cuts enough to earn the premium.

Company guidance: Revenue of $91 billion to $92 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $35.00 to $36.00 for 2026 (, Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K Ex. 99.1))

Price history

About

Eli Lilly discovers, makes and sells medicines. Its largest product is tirzepatide, sold as Mounjaro for type 2 diabetes and as Zepbound for obesity. Foundayo (orforglipron), a GLP-1 pill for obesity, received FDA approval on April 1, 2026. Lilly also sells medicines for cancer (Verzenio, Jaypirca, Inluriyo), immune diseases (Taltz, Ebglyss, Omvoh) and Alzheimer's disease (Kisunla).

In the first nine months of 2026, revenue was $67.2 billion, and Mounjaro, Zepbound and Foundayo gave 66% of it. In Q3 2026, U.S. revenue was $15.1 billion and revenue outside the U.S. was $9.3 billion. Lilly sells some obesity medicines directly to patients through LillyDirect.

Thesis

Lilly trades at a premium because investors pay for very fast growth from Mounjaro, Zepbound and the new obesity pill Foundayo, and for a pipeline led by retatrutide. Lilly leads the market for incretin medicines, its tirzepatide compound patent runs to an estimated 2036 in the U.S., and it has built large manufacturing capacity. But the premium needs volume to grow faster than prices fall. Realized prices fell 15% in Q3 2026, because of lower Zepbound prices in the U.S., the addition of Mounjaro to China's national reimbursement list and Lilly's voluntary price agreements with the U.S. government.

Medicare access through the GLP-1 Bridge program runs only from July 1, 2026 to December 31, 2027, and long-term Medicare coverage is not decided. Other GLP-1 medicines, including pills, and compounded and illegal copies add pressure. Lilly also spends large sums on acquisitions: acquired IPR&D charges were $7.5 billion in the first nine months of 2026. For the premium to be earned, three things must be true.

Volume growth must keep outpacing price cuts, so that revenue grows by more than 20% in 2027. Foundayo must win a large share of new obesity patients and an FDA approval for type 2 diabetes. Retatrutide must stay on plan for a U.S. submission in Q1 2027. The Q4 2026 report with 2027 guidance, expected in late January 2027, is the next test.

If price cuts outpace volume or retatrutide slips, the premium can get smaller over the next four to six quarters.

Checkpoints

  1. Jan 29, 2027 · est.Pending
    Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidance2027 revenue guidance with growth above 20% and a stable performance margin passes; guidance where price cuts outweigh volume growth fails.
  2. Q1 2027 · est.Pending
    Retatrutide submission to the FDAA U.S. submission of retatrutide for obesity in Q1 2027 as planned passes; a delay or a new safety concern fails.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Recent events

  • November 9, 2026Lilly said that Foundayo met its main goal in the ATTAIN-OSA Phase 3 program in adults with moderate-to-severe obstructive sleep apnea and obesity or overweight. At 52 weeks, it reduced breathing interruptions during sleep by up to 44% on average. Lilly plans to submit Foundayo to the FDA for sleep apnea by the end of 2026.
  • November 6, 2026Lilly and Hims & Hers agreed that patients who get a prescription on the Hims & Hers platform can buy Zepbound and Foundayo at Lilly's self-pay prices, from $149 a month for Foundayo and $299 a month for Zepbound.
  • October 29, 2026Lilly reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue rose 39% to $24.4 billion, with volume up 53% and realized prices down 15%. Revenue included about $900 million of one-time benefits. EPS was $7.22 reported and $7.48 non-GAAP, after acquired IPR&D charges of $4.57 per share. Lilly raised its 2026 guidance to revenue of $91 billion to $92 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $35.00 to $36.00. The FDA approved Mounjaro to lower cardiovascular risk in type 2 diabetes and Onswik, a once-weekly insulin. Retatrutide beat Ozempic in a head-to-head trial in type 2 diabetes. After the quarter, Lilly completed its purchase of Merida Biosciences.
Show 9 older events
  • October 27, 2026Lilly said that Patrik Jonsson, the president of Lilly International, will retire at the end of 2026. From January 1, 2027, Ilya Yuffa will lead sales worldwide as president of Lilly Global Markets, and Laura Steele will become president of Lilly USA.
  • September 11, 2026Lilly completed its purchase of AtaiBeckley, which develops BPL-003, a nasal spray for treatment-resistant depression. Lilly paid $6.75 per share in cash, plus up to $2.50 per share more if development and approval goals are met.
  • August 5, 2026Lilly reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue rose 48% to $23.0 billion, and EPS was $7.94 reported and $8.38 non-GAAP, after acquired IPR&D charges of $3.03 per share. Lilly raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $85 billion to $87 billion. It said that the retatrutide data are complete for obesity, sleep apnea and knee osteoarthritis pain, and that it plans to submit retatrutide to the FDA in Q1 2027. It completed the purchases of Orna, Ajax, Centessa and Kelonia, and it committed $4.5 billion more to its Indiana sites.
  • July 23, 2026Retatrutide met its main goals in two more Phase 3 trials. Adults with obesity and type 2 diabetes lost up to 20.8% of their weight at 80 weeks, and adults with severe obesity and heart disease lost up to 22.6%. Lilly said that it has the data to submit retatrutide to the FDA in Q1 2027.
  • July 1, 2026Medicare beneficiaries got access to discounted Lilly obesity medicines under the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program, which runs to December 31, 2027.
  • May 20, 2026Lilly completed a $9.0 billion notes offering, with floating rate notes due 2028 and 2029 and fixed rate notes. It used the money to repay commercial paper and to pay part of the Centessa and Kelonia purchases.
  • April 1, 2026The FDA approved Foundayo (orforglipron), a daily GLP-1 pill for obesity that patients can take at any time without food or water limits. Lilly started to ship it on April 6, 2026.
  • February 4, 2026Lilly reported Q4 2025 results. Revenue rose 43% to $19.3 billion, and EPS was $7.39 reported and $7.54 non-GAAP. It gave 2026 guidance of revenue of $80 billion to $83 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $33.50 to $35.00.
  • November 6, 2025Lilly agreed with the U.S. government to expand access to obesity medicines at lower prices, including for Medicare and Medicaid patients.

Latest news and filings

Last earnings
October 29, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
Next earnings
Expected about January 29, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 59478)

Risks

  • Prices fall as access grows. Realized prices fell 15% in Q3 2026. U.S. price agreements, policy that links U.S. prices to other rich countries, and long-term Medicare coverage that is not decided can cut revenue per patient further.
  • Mounjaro, Zepbound and Foundayo gave 66% of revenue in the first nine months of 2026. A safety problem, a supply problem or a strong rival medicine can hurt most of the business.
  • Other GLP-1 medicines, including pills, compete for patients. Compounded and illegal copies, such as black market retatrutide, also take demand and can harm patients.
  • Lilly buys many companies and records large acquired IPR&D charges: $7.5 billion in the first nine months of 2026. Debt rose to $49.5 billion. Failed programs can waste this money.
  • Lilly builds many new plants. Delays or quality problems can limit supply, and new tariffs on medicines can raise costs.

Balance sheet

Cash
$9.0B
Debt
$49.5B
Net debt
$40.5B
Credit line
$10.1B
undrawn

Cash against debt

Cash$9.0B
Debt$49.5B

debt covered by cashnet debt $40.5B

When the debt is due

12 months$2.5B
Later$47.0B

Lilly funds its growth with operating cash flow and debt. At September 30, 2026, long-term debt including the current part had a carrying value of $49.5 billion, up from $42.5 billion at December 31, 2025.

Dividends

Yield at the current rate
0.5% (current annual rate, at today’s price)
Dividend yield
0.5% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $1,437.29)
Paid per share
$6.69 in the last 12 months (4 payments)
Current annual rate
$6.92 ($1.73 × 4 a year)
Payout ratio
26% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended December 31, 2025)
Latest ex-dividend date
August 14, 2026, $1.73 per share

Dividends per share by year

Eli Lilly dividends per share by year
2016
$2.04
2017
$2.08
2018
$2.252
2019
$2.58
2020
$2.96
2021
$3.40
2022
$3.92
2023
$4.52
2024
$5.20
2025
$6.00

From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 15.2% a year. From 2015 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 11.6% a year.

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.

Questions about Eli Lilly

What does Eli Lilly do?

Eli Lilly discovers, makes and sells medicines. Its largest product is tirzepatide, sold as Mounjaro for type 2 diabetes and as Zepbound for obesity. Its market cap is $1.4T at the current price of $1,437.29.

When does Eli Lilly report earnings next?

This is an estimate: Eli Lilly may report on January 29, 2027. It last reported results on October 29, 2026.

Is Eli Lilly stock below its intrinsic value?

Eli Lilly stock is far above intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.

What changed recently at Eli Lilly?

The latest update is from November 9, 2026. Lilly said that Foundayo met its main goal in the ATTAIN-OSA Phase 3 program in adults with moderate-to-severe obstructive sleep apnea and obesity or overweight.

What are the main risks for Eli Lilly?

Prices fall as access grows. Mounjaro, Zepbound and Foundayo gave 66% of revenue in the first nine months of 2026. Other GLP-1 medicines, including pills, compete for patients.

How much debt and cash does Eli Lilly have?

At September 30, 2026, Eli Lilly had $49.5B of debt and $9.0B of cash.

Does Eli Lilly pay a dividend?

Yes. The current annual dividend of Eli Lilly is $6.92 per share. That is a dividend yield of 0.5% at the current price of $1,437.29. In the last 12 months, it paid $6.69 per share (0.5%). The latest ex-dividend date was August 14, 2026.

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