Skip to content

GGGFluid handling equipment

Graco

Not investment advice. Kevin may own this stock. How we value stocks

By

Updated

Price
$72.98
Analysts view
Mixed
Discount category
Close to intrinsic value
Pick status
Research only
Next earnings
Earnings Jan 25 · · estimated
History
Market cap
$12B
Shares of Oct 7, 2026
Yield at current rate
1.6%
Current annual rate, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
Dividend yield
1.6%
Last 12 months, at the price of Nov 12, 2026
P/E (trailing)
23.5
Price of Nov 12, 2026
EPS (trailing)
$3.10
12 months to Sep 25, 2026
52-week range
$65.96 – $95.69
To Nov 12, 2026
Beta
0.89
Vs S&P 500, 5 years monthly, to Oct 30, 2026
Average volume
2.1M
3 months, to Nov 12, 2026

Check the numbers:ExchangeGoogle FinanceYahoo FinanceSEC filings

In short

Thesis
The market prices Graco for slow organic growth and lower margins from costs and acquisitions, and orders that turn into sales with a recovering margin over the next four to six quarters can close the gap.
Gap
Can close. The Q4 2026 report, expected in late January 2027, shows whether higher orders turn into organic sales growth and whether the gross margin stops falling.

Company guidance: Total company sales of $610 million to $640 million for Q4 2026, including Valco Melton (, Q3 2026 earnings release (10-Q Ex. 99.1))

About

Graco designs, makes and sells systems and equipment that move, measure, control, dispense and spray fluids and coatings. Its products include paint sprayers for contractors and home centers, finishing systems for factories, sealant and adhesive dispensers, and equipment for semiconductor and environmental uses. It has three reportable segments: Contractor, Industrial and Expansion Markets.

Graco bought Valco Melton, a maker of adhesive application and quality assurance systems, on August 31, 2026. Net sales were $2.24 billion in 2025. Its fiscal year ends in late December, and its headquarters is in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

Thesis

The market prices Graco for slow organic growth and lower margins. Organic sales fell 6% in Q1 2026 and grew 4% in Q3 2026, so most of the 4% sales growth in the first nine months came from acquisitions. In Q3 2026, the gross margin fell about 3 percentage points because of higher product costs, the lower margins of acquired businesses and an unfavorable mix. The operating margin of the Industrial segment fell to 28% from 34%.

Residential construction stayed soft, and Valco Melton had an operating loss in its first month. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Organic orders, which rose 7% in Q3 2026, must turn into organic sales growth in 2027. The gross margin must recover as price increases catch up with product costs.

Valco Melton and other recent acquisitions must earn margins closer to the rest of Graco. The Q4 2026 report, expected in late January 2027, is the next test, with fourth quarter sales guidance of $610 million to $640 million. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is a longer slowdown in construction and factory spending.

Checkpoints

  1. Jan 25, 2027 · est.Pending
    Q4 2026 results: organic growth and marginsQ4 sales within $610 million to $640 million, organic growth near the 7% rise in Q3 orders and a gross margin that stops falling pass; lower sales or another margin decline fail.
  2. 2027 · est.Pending
    Valco Melton marginsValco Melton earns an operating profit in 2027 and Industrial margins recover toward the 34% of Q3 2025 pass; continued losses or a goodwill impairment fail.

Every passed and failed checkpoint across all picks

Recent events

  • November 10, 2026Graco signed a $600 million accelerated share repurchase agreement with Bank of America. It pays with cash on hand and borrowings under its revolving credit facility. It expected an initial delivery of about 80% of the shares on November 11, 2026, and final settlement is planned for March 2027.
  • October 21, 2026Graco reported Q3 2026 results. Net sales rose 8% to $586.4 million, with 4% organic growth and 4% from acquisitions. Operating earnings fell 10% because a gain of $14 million in Q3 2025 did not repeat, and adjusted diluted EPS rose 5% to $0.81. The gross margin fell about 3 percentage points. Organic incoming orders rose 7%. Graco expects Q4 2026 sales of $610 million to $640 million, including Valco Melton. It also licensed its motor technology to ABB for data center cooling equipment.
  • August 31, 2026Graco completed the acquisition of Valco Melton for total cash of about $462 million, subject to adjustments. Graco borrowed $219 million under its $750 million revolving credit facility in Q3 2026 to fund acquisitions.
Show 5 older events
  • July 22, 2026Graco reported Q2 2026 results. Net sales rose 3% to $590.6 million, mostly from acquisitions, and operating earnings rose 11%, helped by tariff refunds. Graco kept its 2026 guidance for low single-digit organic sales growth at constant currency and mid single-digit growth with acquisitions. It bought back $315 million of shares in the quarter.
  • May 21, 2026Graco agreed to buy Valco Cincinnati, doing business as Valco Melton, a global provider of adhesive application and quality assurance systems.
  • April 22, 2026Graco reported Q1 2026 results. Net sales rose 2% to $540.1 million, as acquisitions and currency offset an organic decline of 6%. Operating earnings fell 4% because of a lower gross margin and higher expenses.
  • March 2, 2026Graco named Sanjiv Gupta, a finance executive of General Motors, as Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer from April 15, 2026. He succeeded David Lowe, who retired.
  • February 20, 2026The U.S. Supreme Court decided that some tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were not valid. Graco began to receive refunds in Q2 2026 and received $9 million, net of related surcharges, in the first nine months of 2026.

Latest news and filings

Last earnings
January 26, 2026 (8-K on sec.gov)
Next earnings
Expected about January 25, 2027. The company has not confirmed the date.

Every filing on SEC EDGAR (CIK 42888)

Risks

  • Sales depend on construction and factory spending. Residential construction stayed soft in 2026, and organic sales fell 6% in Q1 2026. A longer slowdown can keep organic growth low.
  • Recent acquisitions have lower margins than the rest of Graco. Valco Melton had sales of $12 million and an operating loss of $5 million from August 31 to September 25, 2026. If margins of acquired businesses do not improve, the group margin stays lower.
  • Higher product costs and tariffs lowered the gross margin in 2026. Graco must raise prices to offset them, and price increases can lower demand.
  • Graco borrowed under its revolving credit facility in 2026 to pay for acquisitions and buybacks. Debt is still small, but more debt-funded deals can raise risk.

Balance sheet

Cash
$140M
Debt
$134M
Net cash
$6.0M
Credit line
$668M
undrawn

Cash against debt

Cash$140M
Debt$134M

debt covered by cash

When the debt is due

12 months$31M
Later$103M

Graco has almost no net debt. At September 25, 2026, cash was $139.8 million, and debt was $134.5 million: notes payable to banks of $30.0 million, current debt of $0.7 million and long-term debt of $103.8 million.

Dividends

Yield at the current rate
1.6% (current annual rate, at today’s price)
Dividend yield
1.6% (last 12 months, at today’s price of $72.98)
Paid per share
$1.18 in the last 12 months (4 payments)
Current annual rate
$1.18 ($0.295 × 4 a year)
Payout ratio
36% of the last fiscal year’s earnings (the year that ended December 26, 2025)
Latest ex-dividend date
October 19, 2026, $0.295 per share

Dividends per share by year

Graco dividends per share by year
2016
$0.44
2017
$0.48
2018
$0.532
2019
$0.64
2020
$0.70
2021
$0.752
2022
$0.84
2023
$0.94
2024
$1.02
2025
$1.10

From 2020 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 9.5% a year. From 2015 to 2025, the dividend grew by about 10.6% a year.

Source: company filings and market data, read on November 13, 2026. The ex-dividend date is the first day a buyer no longer gets the next payment.

Questions about Graco

What does Graco do?

Graco designs, makes and sells systems and equipment that move, measure, control, dispense and spray fluids and coatings. Its market cap is $12B at the current price of $72.98.

When does Graco report earnings next?

This is an estimate: Graco may report on January 25, 2027. It last reported results on October 21, 2026.

Is Graco stock below its intrinsic value?

Graco stock is close to intrinsic value. This is general information, not advice.

What changed recently at Graco?

The latest update is from November 10, 2026. Graco signed a $600 million accelerated share repurchase agreement with Bank of America.

What are the main risks for Graco?

Sales depend on construction and factory spending. Recent acquisitions have lower margins than the rest of Graco. Higher product costs and tariffs lowered the gross margin in 2026.

How much debt and cash does Graco have?

At September 25, 2026, Graco had $134M of debt and $140M of cash.

Does Graco pay a dividend?

Yes. The current annual dividend of Graco is $1.18 per share. That is a dividend yield of 1.6% at the current price of $72.98. The latest ex-dividend date was October 19, 2026.

Similar companies

  • URIUnited RentalsShares: Interest rates, Tariffs and trade
    Intrinsic value
    Pricey
    Gap
    Slow
  • ALLEAllegionShares: Interest rates, Tariffs and trade
    Intrinsic value
    Close to intrinsic value
    Gap
    Can close
  • DOOBRPShares: Tariffs and trade, Interest rates
    Intrinsic value
    Close to intrinsic value
    Gap
    Slow
  • CNHCNH IndustrialShares: Tariffs and trade, Interest rates
    Intrinsic value
    Deep below intrinsic value
    Gap
    Slow
  • AGCOAGCOShares: Tariffs and trade, Interest rates
    Intrinsic value
    Below intrinsic value
    Gap
    Slow

Loading your notes…

Read it all? Star GGG or pass, then go on to the next one.