This is an old version of WYNN from 5 days ago (Nov 8, 2026).See the latest version
WYNN
- Price
- $83.11
- Discount category
- Below intrinsic value
- Next earnings
- Feb 5, 2027
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes
- Company name
- Wynn Resorts
- Sector
- Casinos & luxury resorts
- About
- Wynn Resorts owns and runs luxury casino resorts. In Macau, it operates two integrated resorts, Wynn Palace and Wynn Macau, through its roughly 72%-owned subsidiary Wynn Macau, Limited, which is listed in Hong Kong. Macau made about half of Wynn's property profit over the 12 months to June 30, 2026. In Las Vegas, it owns Wynn Las Vegas and Encore, two towers with about 4,700 hotel rooms and a large casino floor. It also runs Encore Boston Harbor, a resort near Boston. Wynn earns money from casino gaming, hotel rooms, dining, and entertainment at these properties. It is now building Wynn Al Marjan Island, a resort in Ras Al Khaimah, United Arab Emirates, through a joint venture in which it owns 40%. The resort holds the UAE's first commercial gaming licence and is expected to open in September 2027.
- Thesis
- Wynn Resorts trades at a discount because Macau makes about half of its property profit, and the Macau market is weakening. Macau gaming revenue fell from a year earlier in each month from June to October 2026, and the October fall was 10.0%. So each visitor spends less. Wynn's strong Macau result in Q2 2026 came partly from luck at the tables. In Q3 2026, Adjusted Property EBITDAR fell to $464.2 million from $570.1 million a year earlier: Wynn Palace and Wynn Macau both fell, Las Vegas fell to $158.8 million with low table luck, and a strike hit Encore Boston Harbor. The Wynn Al Marjan Island project in the UAE adds to the caution. It has been delayed about six months, its budget rose by about $600 million, and construction paused briefly in March 2026 during Iranian strikes on the UAE. Wynn also carries about $10.7 billion of debt, and higher interest rates make that debt more expensive to refinance. For the gap to close, Macau gaming revenue must stop falling by Q4 2026, and Wynn must keep its recent Macau market share at normal table luck. Las Vegas profit must grow again in 2027. Al Marjan Island must open in September 2027 within its new budget, and Wynn must not need more than its planned $525 million to $650 million of further equity for Al Marjan and a second hotel there. The Q3 2026 report did not give this evidence. The next evidence comes in Macau's monthly gaming revenue reports, Wynn's Q4 2026 report in early 2027, and the refinancing of about $1.95 billion of debt that comes due, or that holders can put back, in 2027. The real test of the UAE project comes only when it opens in September 2027, so much of the gap will likely not close before then. Given Wynn's debt, a further Al Marjan delay or a longer Macau slowdown could keep the discount in place well past that date.
- Risks
- Macau made about half of Wynn's property profit over the 12 months to June 30, 2026. Macau gaming revenue fell from a year earlier in each month from June to October 2026. A slowdown in Chinese spending, a change in Macau gaming rules, or tension between China and the West would hit Wynn harder than a more geographically spread-out casino operator. Wynn Al Marjan Island has already been delayed about six months and its budget rose by about $600 million. It does not open until September 2027. Wynn owns 40% and still has to put in $525 million to $650 million, which also covers a second hotel there. With the Ras Al Khaimah government, Wynn guarantees completion of the construction loan, and the resort must be complete by June 30, 2028. Construction paused briefly during Iranian strikes on the UAE in March 2026, and the UAE reported more Iranian missiles in August 2026. A further delay or cost increase would push out the new growth. Wynn had about $10.7 billion of debt at September 30, 2026, with ratings of B1 at Moody's and BB- at Fitch. After the September 2026 refinancing, about $1.35 billion still comes due in 2027, and holders can make Wynn Macau buy back $600 million of convertible bonds on March 7, 2027. New debt now costs more: Wynn refinanced $880 million of 5.25% notes with 6.875% notes. Each 1 percentage point rise in floating rates adds about $21 million a year of interest. Higher rates also lower the price investors pay for casino shares with high debt. Weaker consumers can cut spending at all of Wynn's resorts. In Q2 2026, Wynn Las Vegas hotel occupancy fell 2.1 points, slot win fell 5.3%, and Las Vegas profit fell 8.3%. In Q3 2026, Las Vegas profit fell to $158.8 million from $203.4 million, and a strike at Encore Boston Harbor lowered its profit. US consumer sentiment fell to a four-month low in September 2026. In Macau, spending per visitor is falling. Wynn's Q2 2026 profit was helped by unusually high luck at the Wynn Palace tables and by a $43.3 million gain on derivatives. When table results return to normal, reported profit can fall even if the business does not change. Fontainebleau Las Vegas, a large luxury resort with more than 3,600 rooms, opened on the north Las Vegas Strip in December 2023 and competes directly with Wynn Las Vegas and Encore. Tilman Fertitta, who owned about 12% of Wynn in Wynn's 2026 proxy, is also buying Caesars, which owns several Strip casinos.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $1.8B Debt: $10.7B Net debt: $8.9B Interest cover: 1.7× Undrawn credit line: $2.4B Ratings: Moody's B1 (stable outlook), Fitch BB- Wynn Resorts had a shareholders' deficit of $169 million at June 30, 2026, and its debt leaves limited room. This comes from years of losses during the Macau closures, and from buybacks and dividends. At September 30, 2026, debt was $10.73 billion, in separate borrowing groups. $5.77 billion sits at its 72%-owned Wynn Macau, Limited (WML) and its subsidiaries. $4.37 billion sits at Wynn Resorts Finance (WRF) in the US, and $599.1 million at a consolidated retail joint venture. Cash is $1.64 billion of cash and cash equivalents plus $150.2 million of WML short-term investments at September 30, 2026. $1.15 billion of the cash sat in the WML group. WML pays cash to the parent only through dividends that it shares with its minority holders. Interest cover is operating income of $758.4 million over interest expense of $456.3 million for the first nine months of 2026. At June 30, 2026, about 81% of the debt had a fixed rate, and each 1 percentage point rise in floating rates adds about $21 million a year of interest. In September 2026, WRF issued $900 million of 6.875% notes due 2035 and redeemed the 5.25% Wynn Las Vegas notes due 2027. Still due in 2027 are $750 million of WML 5.5% notes and the $600 million retail term loan. Holders can also put back $600 million of WML convertible bonds on March 7, 2027. The undrawn revolver capacity was $1.03 billion at WRF and $1.35 billion at WML. Moody's rates WRF B1, with a stable outlook since June 2026, and Fitch rates Wynn BB-. Wynn and the Ras Al Khaimah government also guarantee completion of the Al Marjan joint venture's $2.4 billion secured construction loan until the resort is complete. Further Al Marjan equity of $525 million to $650 million and refinancing at higher rates compete with buybacks and dividends. As of Sep 30, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- Sep 22, 2026: Refinance Wynn Las Vegas notes due 2027. Passed. Watch: Closing new long-term notes to redeem the $880 million 2027 notes passes; a failed offering fails. Outcome: WRF closed $900 million of 6.875% notes due 2035 to redeem the 5.25% notes due 2027, at a higher interest rate. Nov 1, 2026: Macau October 2026 gaming revenue report. Failed. Watch: October gaming revenue flat or higher than a year earlier, after Golden Week, passes; a fifth monthly fall fails. Outcome: October gaming revenue fell 10.0% from a year earlier to MOP 21.68 billion, the fifth monthly fall in a row. Nov 5, 2026: Q3 2026 results: Macau share at normal table luck. Failed. Watch: Stable Macau market share and EBITDAR with normal hold, and Las Vegas EBITDAR that stops falling, pass; a fall in Macau share or more Las Vegas decline fails. Outcome: Macau EBITDAR fell at both Wynn Palace and Wynn Macau, and Las Vegas EBITDAR fell to $158.8 million from $203.4 million. Jan 1, 2027 (estimate): Macau December 2026 gaming revenue report. Pending. Watch: Macau gaming revenue for Q4 2026 that is flat or higher than a year earlier passes; a fall in Q4 2026 from a year earlier fails. Feb 5, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results: Macau and Las Vegas profit. Pending. Watch: Macau EBITDAR flat or higher than a year earlier and Las Vegas EBITDAR that stops falling at normal hold pass; another fall in either fails. Mar 7, 2027: Refinance 2027 debt and the convertible bond put. Pending. Watch: Refinancing the $750 million Wynn Macau notes, the $600 million retail term loan and any convertible bonds put back on March 7, 2027 without new equity passes; a missed or very costly refinancing fails. Sep 2027 (estimate): Wynn Al Marjan Island opens in the UAE. Pending. Watch: Opening in September 2027 within the new budget, with Wynn equity within $525 million to $650 million more, passes; a further delay or cost rise fails.
- Recent events
- Nov 5, 2026: Wynn reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue fell to $1.69 billion from $1.83 billion. Net income was $17.3 million, or $0.17 per diluted share, and adjusted EPS was $0.33. Adjusted Property EBITDAR fell to $464.2 million from $570.1 million. Wynn Palace fell to $165.8 million from $200.3 million, and Wynn Macau fell to $89.5 million from $108.0 million. Las Vegas fell to $158.8 million from $203.4 million, with table hold of 18.9%, below the expected range of 22% to 26%. Encore Boston Harbor fell to $50.1 million from $58.4 million, with a strike since early September. Nov 5, 2026: Wynn said that Wynn Al Marjan Island is on track to open in September 2027. Wynn put $62.2 million into the joint venture in Q3 2026, for a total of $1.12 billion. Wynn bought back $58.1 million of stock in Q3, which left $268.0 million of authorization, and the board declared a $0.25 per share dividend. Nov 1, 2026: Macau gaming revenue for October 2026 was MOP 21.68 billion, 10.0% lower than a year earlier. It was the fifth monthly fall in a row. Gaming revenue for the first ten months of 2026 was MOP 208.8 billion, 1.6% higher than a year earlier. Oct 23, 2026: A subsidiary of Wynn Macau, Limited committed up to MOP 1.365 billion to a Macau government investment fund, as part of its non-gaming investment obligations. Oct 12, 2026: Jefferies said that its checks show Macau gaming revenue for October 2026 on track to fall 6% to 10% from a year earlier, against market forecasts of no change. Visitor arrivals in the Golden Week holiday rose 15.5%. On October 10, Macau's Chief Executive said that the government keeps its 2026 gaming revenue forecast of MOP 236 billion and will look at October revenue before it decides on a change. Oct 6, 2026: Wynn said it will report Q3 2026 results on November 5, 2026, after the market closes. Oct 1, 2026: Macau gaming revenue for September 2026 was 1.2% lower than a year earlier, at MOP 18.06 billion. It was the fourth monthly fall in a row and the lowest monthly total of 2026. Sep 22, 2026: Wynn Resorts Finance, a Wynn subsidiary, issued $900 million of 6.875% senior notes due 2035, priced on September 10. It will use the money and cash on hand to redeem the $880 million of Wynn Las Vegas 5.250% notes due 2027. The new notes carry a higher interest rate. Sep 22, 2026: Caesars Entertainment shareholders approved its sale to Tilman Fertitta, who owned about 12% of Wynn in Wynn's 2026 proxy. The US Federal Trade Commission asked for more information on the deal on September 14, so the deal has not closed. Sep 17, 2026: Wynn's CEO and CFO each gave up 10% of their cash salary through July 31, 2027, in exchange for stock options with an exercise price of $82.96. Sep 16, 2026: The US Federal Reserve raised its interest rate target by 0.25 percentage points, to 3.75% to 4.00%. Sep 1, 2026: Macau gaming revenue for August 2026 was 1.2% lower than a year earlier. It was the third monthly fall in a row, after a fall of 8.4% in July. Aug 4, 2026: Wynn reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue was $1.86 billion. Net income was $140.1 million, up from $66.2 million a year earlier. Diluted earnings per share were $1.32, up from $0.64. Adjusted Property EBITDAR was $568.3 million, up 2.9%. Aug 4, 2026: In Q2 2026, Wynn Palace kept 29.7% of mass-market table bets, against 22.3% a year earlier, which lifted its profit 28%. Las Vegas profit fell 8.3% to $215.2 million, and Encore Boston Harbor profit fell 12.2%. Aug 4, 2026: The board declared a $0.25 per share quarterly dividend. Wynn also repurchased $75.0 million of stock during the quarter, leaving $326.1 million of buyback authorization remaining. Aug 4, 2026: Wynn said Wynn Al Marjan Island will now open in September 2027, about six months later than the prior target, after the project's budget rose by roughly $600 million. Wynn owns 40% of the project. It has put in $1.06 billion and expects to put in $525 million to $650 million more, which also covers a second hotel at Al Marjan due in 2029. Jul 21, 2026: Macau approved a change to the Wynn Palace land concession for a new hotel, theatre, and event center. Wynn pays a land premium of about MOP 652 million (about $81 million). Wynn expects the new all-suite hotel tower, the Enclave at Wynn Palace, to cost $900 million to $950 million. Jun 29, 2026: Moody's kept Wynn's B1 rating, but changed the outlook to stable from positive in a note reported on this date, because Wynn has not reduced its debt as much as expected. May 28, 2026: Tilman Fertitta, Wynn's largest individual shareholder with about 12% in Wynn's 2026 proxy, agreed to buy Caesars Entertainment for $17.6 billion, including debt. Filings show that his companies have sold call options on Wynn shares since October 2025. Apr 1, 2026: Craig Fullalove became Wynn's Chief Financial Officer, succeeding Julie Cameron-Doe, who retired after more than four years in the role. Mar 11, 2026: Wynn said construction at Wynn Al Marjan Island resumed after a short pause. The pause came during Iranian strikes on the UAE, which started on February 28, 2026.