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VTR

Current
Price
$90.42
Discount category
Close to intrinsic value
Next earnings
Jan 27, 2027
Next earnings is estimate
Yes
Company name
Ventas
Sector
Healthcare REIT
About
Ventas is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns about 1,500 properties in North America and the United Kingdom. About 1,000 of them are senior housing communities. In its senior housing operating portfolio (SHOP), Ventas owns the communities and receives their operating income, while other companies manage them. It also owns outpatient medical buildings, research centers and other healthcare facilities, which it leases to tenants. Its headquarters are in Chicago. Debra Cafaro is Chairman and CEO.
Thesis
The market prices Ventas for the risk that its fast growth in senior housing will slow and that new shares will dilute it. Ventas pays for most of its purchases with new equity. By September 30, 2026, it had settled 47.3 million shares in 2026 for $3.9 billion of gross proceeds, and it had $0.8 billion more of unsettled equity forward sales. It closed $5.2 billion of investments in 2026 by October 27, 2026. Senior housing results depend on occupancy and rents, which can fall if new supply returns or labor costs rise. In Q3 2026, SHOP same-store cash NOI grew 16%, average occupancy rose 290 basis points and revenue per occupied room rose 5%. Net debt to further adjusted EBITDA improved to 4.4 times from 5.3 times a year earlier. For the gap to close, three things must be true. SHOP same-store cash NOI must keep double-digit growth into 2027. The $5.2 billion of 2026 investments must earn the returns that management expects and add to normalized FFO per share. Leverage must stay near 4.4 times or lower. The Q3 2026 report passed the first test. The 2027 guidance in early 2027 shows the growth outlook. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next two to four quarters. The main reason it may not close is a slowdown in senior housing occupancy gains.
Risks
SHOP income depends on occupancy, rents and the costs of the managers that run the communities. New supply, higher labor costs or weak operators can reduce NOI growth quickly. Ventas funds most of its growth with new shares. Shares outstanding rose to 528.8 million at September 30, 2026 from 474.9 million at December 31, 2025. If the $5.2 billion of 2026 investments earn less than expected, the new shares lower FFO per share. Total debt was $12.44 billion at September 30, 2026. Higher interest rates increase the cost to refinance it and can lower property values. Ventas changed its General Counsel and Chief Accounting Officer in 2026. Changes in key roles can slow work for a time.
Balance sheet
Cash: $202M Debt: $12.4B Net debt: $12.2B Net debt / EBITDA: 4.4× (high) Ventas funds its business with unsecured notes, mortgage debt, a commercial paper program and new equity. At September 30, 2026, total debt was $12.44 billion and cash was $202 million. Net debt as Ventas defines it, which adds its share of unconsolidated debt and removes partners' share of consolidated debt, was $12.66 billion. Net debt to further adjusted EBITDA was 4.4 times, down from 4.7 times at June 30, 2026 and 5.3 times a year earlier. SHOP income growth and purchases paid with new shares caused the improvement. Liquidity was $4.5 billion, which includes availability under its unsecured credit facilities, cash and unsettled equity forward sales. Interest expense was $478 million in the first nine months of 2026. Ventas expects about $648 million of interest expense for all of 2026. As of Sep 30, 2026.
Checkpoints
Oct 27, 2026: Q3 2026 earnings: SHOP growth. Passed. Watch: SHOP same-store cash NOI growth above 10% and 2026 normalized FFO guidance kept or raised pass; a guidance cut or a large slowdown in occupancy gains fails. Outcome: SHOP same-store cash NOI grew 16%, and Ventas raised its 2026 normalized FFO guidance to $3.87 to $3.90 per share. Jan 27, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 earnings and 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: SHOP same-store cash NOI growth above 10% and 2027 guidance for normalized FFO per share growth with leverage near 4.4 times or lower pass; flat FFO per share or higher leverage fails.
Recent events
Nov 10, 2026: Ventas Realty, a subsidiary of Ventas, sold $500 million of 5.500% senior notes due 2033, which Ventas guarantees. Ventas plans to use the money for general purposes, which can include repayment of other debt. Oct 27, 2026: Ventas reported Q3 2026 results. Normalized FFO per share rose 10% to $0.99. SHOP same-store cash NOI rose 16%, with average occupancy up 290 basis points. Ventas raised its 2026 normalized FFO guidance to $3.87 to $3.90 per share. It closed $5.2 billion of investments in 2026, above its earlier $4.5 billion target. Net debt to further adjusted EBITDA fell to 4.4 times. Sep 15, 2026: Ventas appointed a new Chief Accounting Officer and Controller, who joins from Cushman & Wakefield on or around October 5, 2026. CFO Robert Probst then stops doing the Chief Accounting Officer role on an interim basis. Jul 29, 2026: Ventas reported Q2 2026 results. Normalized FFO per share rose 9% to $0.97. SHOP same-store cash NOI rose 16%, with average occupancy up 300 basis points. Ventas raised its 2026 normalized FFO guidance to $3.85 to $3.90 per share and its 2026 investment target to $4.5 billion. Jun 15, 2026: The General Counsel of Ventas said she will leave on June 26, 2026 to join Blackstone. Kevin Bohl, Deputy General Counsel, took the role on an interim basis.
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