QSR changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- CA$105.86 → CA$109.28(+3.2%)
- Next earnings
- Oct 29, 2026 → Jan 29, 2027
- Next earnings is estimate
- No → Yes
- Thesis
- The market prices RBI for its high debt, weak sales at Popeyes in the U.S. and slow growth at Tim Hortons in Canada. Net debt was removed: $12.5 added: $12.6 billion at removed: June added: September 30, 2026, or removed: 4.1 added: 4.0 times adjusted EBITDA, and RBI expects adjusted interest expense of $500 million to $520 million in 2026. Popeyes U.S. comparable sales fell removed: 5.2% added: 4.6% in removed: Q2 added: the first nine months of 2026, and Tim Hortons Canada comparable sales rose only removed: 0.1%. added: 1.1%. 3G Capital, the largest holder, also continues to exchange units, which can add selling pressure. For the gap to close, three things must be true. RBI must keep consolidated comparable sales growth of 3% or more and organic adjusted operating income growth of 8% or more, its targets from 2024 to 2028. Popeyes U.S. sales must stop falling. Net leverage must keep falling from removed: 4.1 added: 4.0 times, as free cash flow of removed: $1.63 added: $1.58 billion over the 12 months to removed: June added: September 30, 2026 pays for dividends, buybacks and debt repayment. removed: The Q3 2026 report on October 29, 2026, gives added: Organic adjusted operating income grew 7.8% in the first removed: test. added: nine months of 2026. The full-year report in removed: February added: early 2027 shows whether RBI met its 8% organic growth target for 2026. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is a weaker consumer in the U.S. and Canada, which can slow sales at all four brands.
- Risks
- Debt added: principal was $13.3 billion at removed: June added: September 30, 2026, and net leverage was removed: 4.1 added: 4.0 times adjusted EBITDA. About $5.7 billion of term loans have floating rates, part of which is hedged with swaps to October 2028. Higher rates or lower earnings make the debt harder to carry and limit buybacks. Popeyes U.S. comparable sales fell removed: 5.8% added: 4.6% in the first removed: half added: nine months of removed: 2026. added: 2026, including 2.2% in Q3. If the brand does not recover, franchisees open fewer restaurants and royalty growth slows. Tim Hortons in Canada gives a large part of the profit, and its comparable sales grew only removed: 0.1% added: 1.1% in removed: Q2 added: the first nine months of 2026. A weak Canadian consumer or higher coffee costs can lower its profit. 3G Capital held about 21% of the fully diluted shares after the August 2026 exchange. More exchanges or share sales by 3G can add selling pressure on the stock.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: removed: $1.1B added: $974M Debt: $13.3B Net debt: $12.3B EBITDA, last 12 months: $3.1B Net debt / EBITDA: 4.0× (medium) Interest cover: 5.4× Undrawn credit line: $1.2B Debt due within 12 months: removed: $48M added: $56M Last debt due: 2030 RBI funds itself with secured term loans and senior notes. At removed: June added: September 30, 2026, debt principal was removed: $13.33 added: $13.31 billion: Term Loan B of removed: $4.46 added: $4.44 billion due 2030, Term Loan A of removed: $1.23 added: $1.22 billion due 2028, $4.0 billion of first lien notes due 2028 and 2029, and $3.65 billion of second lien notes due 2028 and 2030. Finance leases added added: about $0.28 billion, and RBI reports total debt of removed: $13.61 added: $13.59 billion and net debt of removed: $12.55 added: $12.61 billion. Cash was removed: $1.06 billion. added: $974 million. Net leverage was removed: 4.1 added: 4.0 times adjusted EBITDA of removed: $3.08 added: $3.12 billion over the 12 months to removed: June added: September 30, 2026, down from removed: 4.6 added: 4.4 times a year earlier. RBI had $1.25 billion available under its revolving credit removed: facility. added: facility, with no borrowings. Interest cover is income from operations added: of $2.02 billion divided by net interest expense added: of $372 million for the first removed: half added: nine months of 2026. Free cash flow was removed: $1.63 added: $1.58 billion over the 12 months to removed: June added: September 30, 2026. The debt is rated below investment grade, and RBI names a path to investment grade as a goal. As of removed: Jun added: Sep 30, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 29, 2026: Q3 2026 results: comparable sales and Popeyes. removed: Pending. added: Passed. Watch: Consolidated comparable sales growth of 3% or more, a smaller fall at Popeyes U.S. and the 8% organic growth target kept pass; a fall in comparable sales growth below 2% or a lower target fails. removed: Feb added: Outcome: Comparable sales grew 3.8%, Popeyes U.S. comparable sales fell 2.2% after 5.2% in Q2, and RBI kept its 8% organic growth target for 2026. Jan 29, 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 results: growth target and leverage. Pending. Watch: Organic adjusted operating income growth of 8% or more for 2026 and net leverage below 4.1 times pass; a miss on the growth target or higher leverage fails.
- Recent events
- added: Oct 29, 2026: RBI reported Q3 2026 results. System-wide sales grew 6.2% and comparable sales grew 3.8%, with 8.4% at Burger King U.S., 3.9% at International and 1.8% at Tim Hortons Canada. Popeyes U.S. comparable sales fell 2.2%, a smaller fall than the 5.2% of Q2. Adjusted EPS rose 6.9% to $1.10, and adjusted operating income rose 6.7% on an organic basis. Net leverage fell to 4.0 times from 4.4 times a year earlier. RBI returned $1.3 billion to shareholders in the first nine months of 2026 and said it remains on track for 8% organic adjusted operating income growth in 2026. Sep 15, 2026: RBI said it will report Q3 2026 results on October 29, 2026. Aug 10, 2026: RBI received a notice from 3G Restaurant Brands Holdings, an affiliate of 3G Capital, to exchange 2,784,549 exchangeable units. RBI said it will buy back the units for cash on hand on August 31, 2026, at the 20-day average NYSE price. After the exchange, 3G holds about 21% of the fully diluted shares. Aug 6, 2026: RBI reported Q2 2026 results. System-wide sales grew 6.4% and comparable sales grew 3.8%, with 8.5% at Burger King U.S. and 5.5% at International. Popeyes U.S. comparable sales fell 5.2%. Adjusted EPS rose 12.9% to $1.07, and adjusted operating income rose 6.7% on an organic basis. RBI returned $435 million to shareholders and said it remains on track for 8% organic adjusted operating income growth in 2026. May 6, 2026: RBI reported Q1 2026 results. Comparable sales grew 3.2%, and Tim Hortons and International had their 20th quarter in a row of positive comparable sales. RBI started share repurchases again in March and expects to buy back $500 million of shares in 2026. Jan 30, 2026: RBI formed a joint venture for Burger King China with a fund managed by CPE, which invested $350 million of new capital. RBI keeps a 17% interest and earns royalties from the restaurants.