PYPL changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $56.70 → $59.48(+4.9%)
- Next earnings
- Oct 27, 2026 → Jan 27, 2027
- Next earnings is estimate
- No → Yes
- About
- PayPal runs online payment services for consumers and merchants in about 200 markets. Its main products are PayPal branded checkout, the Venmo app for payments between people and to merchants, and Braintree, which processes card payments for large merchants without the PayPal brand. PayPal earns a fee on most payments, and branded checkout earns a higher margin than unbranded processing. It also earns interest on customer balances and on its buy now, pay later and other loans, and it sells PayPal and Venmo debit and credit cards. In removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026, it processed removed: $486.4 added: $487.1 billion of payments and had removed: 439 added: 440 million active accounts. Since April 2026, it runs three businesses: Checkout Solutions & PayPal, Consumer Financial Services & Venmo, and Payment Services & Crypto.
- Thesis
- The market fears that PayPal's most profitable business, branded checkout, will keep losing share. Apple Pay, Shop Pay and other wallets compete at the online checkout, and AI shopping agents, such as Meta's Muse, can move the purchase decision away from the PayPal button. added: Profit growth stays slow. In removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026, removed: payment volume grew 10%, but transaction margin dollars grew removed: only 1% and added: 2%, or 3% excluding interest on customer balances, the removed: non-GAAP operating margin fell 248 basis points. added: same rate as in Q2 2026. Active accounts were almost flat at removed: 439 added: 440 million. PayPal named Enrique Lores CEO in February 2026, and he started a removed: new reorganization, added: reorganization that targets at least $1.5 billion of gross annual savings within two to three years, so investors also wait to see whether the turnaround plan works. added: The Q3 report showed first progress: non-GAAP EPS grew 8%, the non-GAAP operating margin rose slightly, and PayPal raised its 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance to about $5.60 from about $5.38. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Transaction margin dollars excluding interest on customer balances must grow faster than removed: the 3% of Q2 2026, added: 3%, with branded checkout stable or growing. PayPal must reach its removed: raised 2026 removed: non-GAAP EPS guidance removed: of about $5.38 added: and give a 2027 outlook with EPS growth while it keeps share buybacks near $1.5 billion a quarter. Venmo must keep growing its revenue, and PayPal must win a share of payments that AI agents make, as with its Meta Muse checkout deal of September 2026. The removed: Q3 report on October 27, 2026, is the next test, and the Q4 report with the 2027 removed: outlook added: outlook, expected in added: late January or early February removed: 2027 added: 2027, is the removed: second. added: next test. Because the fear of share loss to wallets and AI agents fades only with years of steady checkout growth, the gap can close only slowly.
- Risks
- Apple Pay, Shop Pay and other wallets compete with PayPal branded checkout, which earns PayPal's highest margin. If PayPal keeps losing share at the online checkout, its profits can fall. AI shopping agents from large technology companies can choose the payment method for the user. If these agents favor other wallets or take a fee, PayPal's role and margin at checkout can shrink. A new CEO, a new structure and many leadership changes in 2026 bring execution risk. removed: The added: A workforce reduction in Q3 2026 cost $152 million of restructuring charges, and the turnaround can bring more charges and job cuts before growth returns. PayPal holds buy now, pay later and other consumer loans. A weaker consumer can raise loan losses and reduce payment volume.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: removed: $15.3B added: $15.1B Debt: $13.5B Net cash: removed: $1.8B added: $1.6B Interest cover: 12× Debt due within 12 months: $2.5B Last debt due: 2062 PayPal has more cash and investments than debt. At removed: June added: September 30, 2026, cash, cash equivalents and investments were removed: $15.3 added: $15.1 billion. These exclude the removed: $39.7 added: $38.4 billion of funds receivable and customer accounts, which belong to customers. Debt was $13.5 billion: $12.7 billion of senior notes, $200 million of commercial removed: paper and added: paper, ¥90 billion, about removed: $556 added: $572 million, drawn on the Paidy credit removed: facility. added: facility and $46 million of other financing. In May 2026, PayPal issued $2.0 billion of new notes due 2028, 2031 and 2036. removed: The added: Short-term debt removed: due within 12 months added: of $2.5 billion includes $1.25 billion of 2.650% notes due October 1, 2026, the Paidy facility due February 2027, $500 million of notes due June 2027 and the commercial paper. added: PayPal also has revolving credit facilities with a total capacity of about $5.6 billion. Interest cover is operating income divided by interest expense for the first removed: half added: nine months of 2026. PayPal returned $6.0 billion to shareholders with buybacks over the 12 months to removed: June added: September 30, 2026, and it also pays a quarterly dividend of $0.14 per share. As of removed: Jun added: Sep 30, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 27, 2026: Q3 2026 results: checkout and transaction margin. removed: Pending. added: Failed. Watch: Transaction margin dollars excluding interest on customer balances that grow faster than the 3% of Q2 and a 2026 EPS guidance kept near $5.38 pass; slower growth or a lower guidance fails. removed: Feb added: Outcome: Transaction margin dollars excluding interest on customer balances grew 3%, not faster than in Q2, so the growth test failed, although PayPal raised its 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance to about $5.60. Jan 27, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 outlook. Pending. Watch: A 2027 outlook with growth in non-GAAP EPS and transaction margin dollars passes; another year of falling margins fails.
- Recent events
- Oct added: 27, 2026: PayPal reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue rose 2% to $8.6 billion, and payment volume rose 6% to $487.1 billion. Transaction margin dollars rose 2% to $4.0 billion, and 3% excluding interest on customer balances. GAAP EPS fell 4% to $1.25, and non-GAAP EPS rose 8% to $1.45. Active accounts rose 0.6% to 440 million. Buybacks were $1.5 billion. PayPal raised its 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance to about $5.60 from about $5.38. Oct 27, 2026: PayPal's Q3 2026 10-Q said that a global workforce reduction in Q3 2026 cost $152 million of restructuring charges and should save about $340 million of employee costs a year. It also said that the April 2026 reorganization should give at least $1.5 billion of gross annual savings over the next two to three years, and that PayPal will put a large part of the savings back into growth. Oct 5, 2026: Venmo said that its credit card now pays up to 4% cash back on purchases that users split with friends. Sep 22, 2026: PayPal said that its customers will be able to shop and check out with Meta's Muse AI agent at PayPal merchants. PayPal did not give financial terms or a launch date. Aug 28, 2026: Bloomberg reported that Stripe and Advent International stopped their attempt to buy PayPal, two weeks after the talks started again. Reports said that the two sides did not agree on the value of PayPal. PayPal did not comment. Jul 28, 2026: PayPal reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue rose 5% to $8.7 billion, and payment volume rose 10% to $486.4 billion. Transaction margin dollars rose 1% to $3.9 billion, and non-GAAP EPS fell 1% to $1.38. Free cash flow was $1.8 billion, and buybacks were $1.5 billion. PayPal raised its 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance to about $5.38. Jul 15, 2026: Reuters reported that Stripe and Advent International offered $60.50 per share, more than $53 billion in total, to buy PayPal. PayPal did not comment. May 5, 2026: PayPal reported Q1 2026 results and gave details of its new operating model. It guided 2026 non-GAAP EPS from a low-single-digit decline to slightly positive. Apr 29, 2026: PayPal reorganized into three businesses: Checkout Solutions & PayPal, Consumer Financial Services & Venmo, and Payment Services & Crypto. The heads of the Consumer Group and of the Small Business & Financial Services Group left the company.