NVDA changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $213.66 → $200.13(−6.3%)
- Next earnings
- Nov 18, 2026 → Nov 17, 2026
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes → No
- Thesis
- The market prices Nvidia at a discount because some of its huge revenue growth may not be fully organic. Large buyers use debt, or financing Nvidia itself provides, to pay for chips. This makes some demand look circular, meaning Nvidia's own money may be funding purchases of its own chips. The Department of Justice is also checking whether Nvidia structured a license deal with AI startup Groq to avoid normal antitrust review. Nvidia also expects a lower gross margin. It guided the next quarter to about 74%, down from 75%, and its finance chief said that the margin will be lowest, at 71% to 72%, in the quarter after that. For the gap to close, revenue growth must keep coming from many customers, not just financed ones. The new Vera Rubin chip platform must also keep shipping widely. The Groq inquiry must end without a forced change to the deal, and gross margin must stop falling. The next test is Nvidia's fiscal Q3 earnings removed: call, expected in mid to late added: call on November added: 17, 2026. A Justice Department decision could take longer, likely into 2027. If demand and margins hold up over the next two to three quarters, the gap can close.
- Checkpoints
- Nov removed: 18, 2026 (estimate): added: 17, 2026: Fiscal Q3 2027 results: gross margin and customer breadth. Pending. Watch: Gross margin near the 74% guidance and data center growth from many customers pass; a margin below guidance or growth that depends on financed buyers fails. Feb 2027 (estimate): Fiscal Q4 2027 results: margin floor and Vera Rubin ramp. Pending. Watch: Gross margin that holds at or above the 71% to 72% guidance while Vera Rubin ships widely passes; a further margin cut or a slow Rubin ramp fails. Q2 2027 (estimate): Hugging Face purchase closes after regulatory review. Pending. Watch: A close in the first half of 2027 on the agreed terms passes; a block or a long delay by regulators fails. 2027 (estimate): Justice Department decision on the Groq license deal. Pending. Watch: An inquiry that ends with no forced change to the Groq deal passes; a lawsuit or an order to undo the deal fails.
- Recent events
- Oct added: 28, 2026: Nvidia said that it will hold its call on fiscal Q3 2027 results, for the quarter that ended October 25, 2026, on November 17, 2026. Oct 26, 2026: Anthropic filed for its initial public offering. Its S-1 lists NVIDIA GPU compute deals through SpaceXAI (up to $120.5 billion), Nscale (about $44.6 billion) and Lambda (about $41.3 billion). Oct 19, 2026: At an investment summit in Berlin, Nvidia announced commitments of nearly $10 billion to companies, universities and research institutions in Europe. Germany's government and Nvidia signed a joint plan to develop AI for factories, robots, machines and cars. Nvidia named four German start-ups that it plans to back, and Siemens agreed to work with Nvidia on AI-run factories. The press reports did not give the amount for Germany alone. Oct 2, 2026: The Financial Times reported that Amazon is in talks to move about $8 billion of Nvidia Grace Blackwell chips into a separate company that borrows money, and to lease the chips back. These are talks only, and neither company made a comment. Sep 28, 2026: Nvidia raised its share repurchase authorization by $150 billion. The total remaining authorization is now $235 billion, to be used through fiscal 2028. Sep 9, 2026: The New York Times reported that the US Department of Justice is looking into whether Nvidia structured its license deal with AI chip startup Groq to avoid antitrust review. Reports put the deal at about $17 billion to $20 billion. The deal gave Nvidia a non-exclusive license to Groq's chip technology, and Nvidia hired Groq staff, including founder Jonathan Ross. The Department of Justice did not confirm the inquiry. Sep 3, 2026: Nvidia agreed to buy AI model platform Hugging Face for about $11.9 billion, plus up to $1.0 billion of retention awards for staff. Nvidia expects the deal to close in the first half of 2027, after regulatory approvals. Aug 31, 2026: Nvidia agreed to invest $3.5 billion in MediaTek, through most of a $3.9 billion convertible bond offering by MediaTek. MediaTek will let its customers use Nvidia's NVLink Fusion technology to design custom AI chips that connect to Nvidia systems. CEO Jensen Huang said that the deal is "not circular," but some analysts question this claim. Aug 26, 2026: Nvidia reported Q2 fiscal 2027 results. Revenue was $96.2 billion, up 106% from last year. Data center revenue was $89.0 billion, up 117% from last year. Gross margin was 75.0%. Aug 26, 2026: Nvidia guided Q3 fiscal 2027 revenue to $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%, and gross margin to about 74%. On the earnings call, the finance chief said that higher memory costs will make the gross margin lowest in Q4, at 71% to 72%, and that it will then be 72% to 73% in fiscal 2028. The outlook includes no data center revenue from China. Aug 26, 2026: Nvidia said that it started production shipments of the Vera Rubin platform in August 2026. It expects Vera Rubin to be about 20% of data center revenue in Q3 fiscal 2027. Aug 17, 2026: Nvidia agreed to guarantee part of the lease and power payments for an OpenAI data center campus in Pike County, Ohio, of about 4.25 gigawatts. The guarantees go to the landlord, SB Energy, are capped at $105 billion, and start with the first lease phase in fiscal 2029. OpenAI must pay Nvidia back for any amount Nvidia pays. Sep 22, 2025: Nvidia and OpenAI signed a letter of intent. Nvidia will invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI, step by step, as OpenAI deploys at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems.