NGG changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $81.22 → $83.26(+2.5%)
- Next earnings
- Nov 5, 2026 → May 13, 2027
- Next earnings is estimate
- No → Yes
- Thesis
- The market prices National Grid for the cost of its very large investment plan and for the risk of regulation. The company plans to invest at least £70 billion in the five years to March 2031, and net debt rose to added: £48.6 billion at September 30, 2026, from £44.2 billion at March 31, removed: 2026 from £41.4 billion a year earlier. added: 2026. It funds part of the plan with new shares, through a scrip dividend and a larger share count, which reduces EPS growth per share. In the US, a FERC order in March 2026 lowered the allowed returns on New England transmission. Investors also see UK and US regulators as under pressure to keep customer bills low. For the gap to close, three things must be true. National Grid must deliver underlying EPS growth of removed: 13% to 15% added: to 16% in 2026/27, as added: now guided, and then 8% to 10% a year to 2030/31. Its regulators must keep allowing returns near the levels of the RIIO-T3 price control and the recent New York and Massachusetts decisions. It must keep its credit ratings while gearing rises toward the high 60% range by 2030/31. removed: The added: At the half-year results on November 5, removed: 2026 give the next test, added: 2026, underlying EPS rose 22%, and the company removed: said in October 2026 that it expects EPS growth slightly above added: raised its 2026/27 guidance. The full-year removed: results in added: results, planned for May removed: 2027 added: 13, 2027, show the first year of the new plan. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next three to five quarters. The main reason it may not close is higher interest rates, which raise the cost of the debt that funds the plan.
- Balance sheet
- National Grid funds its networks with bonds, hybrid debt and bank loans at the holding company and at its regulated companies. Net debt was added: £48.6 billion at September 30, 2026, up £4.4 billion from £44.2 billion at March 31, 2026, removed: up £2.8 billion in the year, because capital investment removed: of £11.6 billion was added: and the Joulent investment were higher than removed: cash flow and the removed: £2.8 added: £4.1 billion of removed: net proceeds from the sales added: operating cash inflows. Borrowings were £51.2 billion, of removed: National Grid Renewables added: which £5.5 billion was due within one year, and removed: Grain LNG. Cash added: cash, current financial investments and removed: cash equivalents were £375 million. Funds from operations were 13.0% added: financing derivatives offset £2.6 billion. From April 1 to September 30, 2026, the company raised about £5.6 billion of removed: net debt, added: new long-term senior debt and removed: retained cash flow was 9.3% added: about £3.2 billion of removed: adjusted net debt. Adjusted gearing, which counts part added: new committed loan facilities. It had £10.9 billion of added: undrawn committed facilities at September 30, 2026. Underlying net finance costs were £722 million in the removed: hybrid debt as equity, was 61%. added: half year, up 6%. The company expects removed: regulatory gearing added: net debt to rise removed: toward added: by about £4 billion more by March 31, 2027, with regulatory gearing of about 65%, and it expects gearing in the high 60% range by removed: 2030/31 and added: 2030/31. It aims to keep credit metrics removed: in line with added: above the thresholds for its current group removed: rating. UK regulated asset value was £37.0 billion added: ratings, and removed: US rate base was £29.5 billion at March 31, 2026. In October 2026, the company expected half-year net debt to be in line with added: Fitch raised its removed: full-year guidance after the Joulent investment. added: ratings by one notch in June 2026. As of removed: Mar 31, added: Sep 30, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 5, 2026: Half-year 2026/27 results: EPS growth and net debt. removed: Pending. added: Passed. Watch: Results that support underlying EPS growth at or above 13% to 15% for 2026/27 and net debt in line with guidance pass; lower guidance or higher net debt fails. added: Outcome: Underlying EPS rose 22% in the half year, the company raised its 2026/27 guidance to growth of 15% to 16%, and net debt of £48.6 billion was in line with its plan for about £4 billion more growth by March 2027. May added: 13, 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026/27 results: first year of the new plan. Pending. Watch: Underlying EPS growth of removed: 13% added: 15% or more and capital investment added: of about £13.5 billion, on track for at least £70 billion over five removed: years added: years, pass; lower EPS growth or a cut to the plan fails.
- Recent events
- added: Nov 5, 2026: National Grid reported half-year 2026/27 results. Capital investment rose 33% to a record £6.7 billion. Underlying operating profit rose to about £2.6 billion, and underlying EPS rose 22% to 36.5p, helped by the first year of RIIO-T3, US rate base growth and one-off fair value gains in NG Partners. Statutory EPS was 26.9p. Net debt rose £4.4 billion to £48.6 billion. The interim dividend is 16.97p, up 4%. National Grid raised its 2026/27 guidance to underlying EPS growth of 15% to 16%, with about £13.5 billion of capital investment, and kept its five-year plan. Oct 5, 2026: National Grid said in a pre-close update that it now expects 2026/27 underlying EPS growth slightly above its guidance of 13% to 15%. National Grid Ventures & Other expects about £130 million of extra first-half profit from fair value gains in its NG Partners portfolio and stronger interconnector results. Half-year results are due on November 5, 2026. Aug 3, 2026: National Grid announced a simpler operating model. From September 1, 2026, the Group Executive Committee falls from 13 to 8 members, with single Presidents for the UK and the US, a global capital delivery team and a global technology team. Jul 1, 2026: National Grid Ventures agreed to invest $1.75 billion for a 35% interest in Joulent, a platform that develops contracted power generation and high voltage infrastructure for large US power users. May 14, 2026: National Grid reported 2025/26 results. Underlying EPS rose 8% at constant currency to 78.0p, and statutory EPS rose 9% to 65.5p. Capital investment was a record £11.6 billion. The total dividend rose 3.8% to 48.49p. It extended its five-year plan to 2030/31, with at least £70 billion of investment, asset growth of about 10% a year and underlying EPS growth of 8% to 10% a year. Mar 2, 2026: National Grid accepted Ofgem's RIIO-T3 price control for UK Electricity Transmission, which runs to March 2031, and upgraded its five-year financial framework.