MDLZ changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $63.91 → $66.70(+4.4%)
- Discount category
- Far below intrinsic value → Well below intrinsic value
- Next earnings
- Oct 29, 2026 → Jan 29, 2027
- Next earnings is estimate
- No → Yes
- About
- Mondelez International makes and sells snacks in more than 150 countries. Its main products are biscuits and baked snacks, such as Oreo, Ritz, LU and Clif Bar, and chocolate, such as Cadbury Dairy Milk and Milka. It also sells gum, candy and some meals and beverages. It reports four regions: Europe, North America, Latin America, and Asia, Middle East and Africa. Net revenues were about $38.5 billion in 2025, and Europe was the largest region, with removed: $3.38 added: $3.55 billion of the removed: $9.36 added: $9.97 billion of removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026 net revenues. Mondelez makes money from the margin between its prices and the cost of raw materials such as cocoa, sugar, wheat and dairy. Emerging markets gave about removed: 42% added: 41% of net revenues in removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026.
- Thesis
- The market discounts Mondelez because its profit fell after the cocoa price spike, and the recovery comes slowly. Mondelez raised chocolate prices sharply in 2025, and volumes fell, most of all in Europe. In Q2 2026, Europe's organic net revenue fell 3.5%, with volume and mix down 2.1%. removed: Cocoa prices fell in early 2026, but Mondelez had already bought its cocoa for 2026, so lower costs do not help results this year. Adjusted EPS fell 8.8% in constant currency in the first half of 2026, and the 2026 guidance is flat to 5% growth. The added: recovery started in Q3 2026. Lower raw material costs and productivity raised the adjusted gross margin by 3.8 points to 34.2%, adjusted EPS grew 5.5% in constant currency, and Europe's volume and mix grew 1.6% after Mondelez cut prices there. The CEO also said in February 2026 that low consumer confidence limits volume growth in North America. For the gap to close, Mondelez must show that cheaper cocoa removed: reaches added: keeps reaching its margins in 2027, that European volumes removed: grow again, added: keep growing, and that adjusted EPS grows removed: again. The first test is added: again for the removed: Q3 2026 report on October 29, 2026. added: full year. The main test is the full-year report in early removed: February 2027, with the 2027 outlook and the cocoa cost for 2027. If the 2027 outlook shows margin recovery, the gap can close over the next three to five quarters. If cocoa prices rise again or volumes removed: keep falling, added: fall again, the gap can last longer.
- Risks
- Cocoa is a main cost of the chocolate business, and its price changes a lot. removed: Mondelez bought its added: Lower raw material costs lifted the adjusted gross margin in Q3 2026, but cocoa removed: for 2026 at high prices. added: prices change a lot. If cocoa prices rise again before Mondelez buys for 2027, removed: margins stay low. added: the margin recovery can stop. Higher prices reduced volumes, most of all in Europe, where organic net revenue fell 3.5% in Q2 2026. added: In Q3 2026, European volume grew again, but only after Mondelez cut prices by 3.7 points, so Europe's organic net revenue still fell 2.1%. Retailers and private-label products compete on price. If volumes do not removed: recover, added: keep growing, revenue growth stays slow. Consumers in North America have low confidence and look for lower prices, as the CEO said in February 2026. Weak demand limits volume growth in the second-largest region. Mondelez sells in many emerging markets, including Argentina, Türkiye, Egypt and Nigeria, which have high inflation. A strong US dollar lowers the value of foreign sales, and trade changes, such as tariffs on US-Mexico-Canada trade, can raise costs.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: removed: $1.7B added: $1.6B Debt: removed: $21.5B added: $21.7B Net debt: removed: $19.7B added: $20.1B EBITDA, last 12 months: removed: $5.8B added: $6.9B Net debt / EBITDA: removed: 3.4× added: 2.9× (medium) Interest cover: removed: 9.4× added: 10× Undrawn credit line: $6.0B Debt due within 12 months: removed: $5.0B added: $5.4B Mondelez funds itself with unsecured notes of the parent company, in US dollars, euros and other currencies, and with commercial paper. At removed: June added: September 30, 2026, debt was removed: $16.46 added: $16.35 billion of long-term debt, removed: $2.66 added: $1.74 billion of current long-term debt and removed: $2.33 added: $3.65 billion of short-term borrowings, which was mostly added: $3.61 billion of commercial paper at removed: 2.9%. added: 3.5%. EBITDA is GAAP operating income plus depreciation and amortization for the 12 months to removed: June added: September 30, removed: 2026; added: 2026, from the 10-Q and the 2025 10-K; it includes gains from mark-to-market changes of commodity and currency hedges, which change a lot from quarter to quarter. Interest cover is operating income divided by interest expense added: of $439 million for the first removed: six added: nine months of 2026. Undrawn credit is a $4.5 billion revolving facility to February 2030 and a $1.5 billion 364-day removed: facility, signed on February 18, 2026 and added: facility due February 17, 2027. They support the commercial paper program. These facilities require shareholders' equity of at least $25.0 billion, on a defined basis. In the first removed: six added: nine months of 2026, Mondelez bought back removed: $210 added: about $874 million of shares under a $9.0 billion program that runs to December 2027. added: In total, it returned $2.8 billion to shareholders in dividends and buybacks in that period. It expects free cash flow of about $3 billion in 2026. As of removed: Jun added: Sep 30, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 29, 2026: Q3 2026 results: Europe volumes and adjusted EPS. removed: Pending. added: Passed. Watch: Adjusted EPS that is flat or up in constant currency and a smaller fall in European volume pass; another fall in adjusted EPS or a cut to the 2026 outlook fails. removed: Feb added: Outcome: Adjusted EPS grew 5.5% in constant currency, European volume and mix grew 1.6%, and Mondelez kept its 2026 outlook. Jan 29, 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 results and 2027 outlook. Pending. Watch: A 2027 outlook with adjusted EPS growth from lower cocoa costs passes; an outlook of flat or lower adjusted EPS fails.
- Recent events
- Oct added: 29, 2026: Mondelez reported Q3 2026 results. Net revenues grew 2.3% to $9.97 billion, and organic net revenue grew 2.1%, with volume and mix up 1.8%. Adjusted EPS was $0.78, up 5.5% in constant currency, and the adjusted gross margin rose 3.8 points to 34.2% on lower raw material costs. In Europe, volume and mix grew 1.6%, but organic net revenue fell 2.1% because prices fell 3.7 points. Mondelez kept its 2026 outlook of at least 2% organic revenue growth and flat to 5% adjusted EPS growth. Oct 29, 2026: Mondelez agreed to buy a majority stake in Undercover Snacks, a US maker of quinoa crisp snacks. It did not give the price. The deal is to close in the first quarter of 2027, after regulatory approval. Oct 15, 2026: Mondelez said that it will report Q3 2026 results on October 29, 2026, at 4:05 p.m. ET, after the market closes. Jul 28, 2026: Mondelez reported Q2 2026 results. Net revenues grew 4.1% to $9.36 billion, and organic net revenue grew 2.2%. Adjusted EPS was $0.73, down 2.7% in constant currency. Europe's organic net revenue fell 3.5%. Mondelez raised its 2026 organic revenue outlook to at least 2% growth, kept its adjusted EPS outlook of flat to 5% growth, and raised its quarterly dividend by 4%. Jun 15, 2026: Mondelez appointed Amit Banati, the former CFO of Kenvue and Kellanova, as Chief Financial Officer, effective July 1, 2026. Luca Zaramella, the former CFO, stays as Chief Operating Officer. May 20, 2026: At the annual meeting, shareholders re-elected all 10 directors, including CEO Dirk Van de Put as chair. They rejected a proposal for an independent board chair, with about 31% of the votes cast in favor. Apr 28, 2026: Mondelez reported Q1 2026 results. Net revenues grew 8.2% to $10.08 billion, and organic net revenue grew 3.0%, with volume and mix down 0.5%. Adjusted EPS was $0.67, down 14.9% in constant currency.