KMX changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $53.33 → $53.89(+1.1%)
- Thesis
- The market prices CarMax for a business that lost its way and must prove that a new plan works. In fiscal 2026, sales and profits fell, the CEO left, and CarMax recorded a $141.3 million goodwill impairment because its share price and outlook fell. Keith Barr became CEO in March 2026 and cut prices to win back buyers, so gross profit per retail car fell to $2,105 in Q2 of fiscal 2027, $111 less than a year earlier. Investors fear that CarMax must give up profit per car to keep its volume, and that CAF loan losses can rise as it lends more to buyers with weaker credit. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Comparable store used unit sales must keep growing after the 13.0% rise of Q2 while gross profit per retail car stays near the Q2 level. SG&A cuts must reach the $200 million exit rate target by the end of fiscal 2027. CAF loan losses must stay in line with the allowance, which was 3.07% of loans on August 31, 2026, as the Tier 2 loans grow. removed: The added: At its Strategic Update on November 3, 2026, removed: gives added: CarMax set targets through fiscal 2030: retail used unit growth at a mid-single-digit yearly rate and adjusted EPS growth at a mid-teens yearly rate from the removed: targets, the added: fiscal 2026 base of $2.91. The Q3 report on December 17, 2026, gives the next test, and the Q4 report in about April 2027 shows the full year. If the volume gains hold, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. If price cuts do not keep buyers, or credit losses rise, profits can fall again.
- Risks
- CarMax cut prices to win back sales. Gross profit per retail used car fell from $2,216 to $2,105 in Q2 of fiscal 2027. If more price cuts are necessary to keep volume, profits can fall even when sales rise. CAF holds about $16 billion of auto loans and now lends more to Tier 2 buyers with weaker credit. A weaker economy or higher unemployment can increase loan losses above the allowance of 3.07% of loans, and CAF depends on the securitization market for funds. The CEO, Keith Barr, joined in March 2026, and other senior leaders left. The new strategy is not removed: proven, and the added: proven. Its targets removed: come only on November 3, 2026. added: through fiscal 2030 assume a stable operating environment, and CarMax expects CAF income to fall in fiscal 2027 as it adds Tier 2 loans. Online used car sellers and dealers compete for the same buyers and for the cars that CarMax buys from consumers. Cars bought from consumers were flat in Q2 of fiscal 2027. A securities class action, Jason Cap v. CarMax, is pending. CarMax cannot estimate a possible loss.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 3, 2026: Strategic Update: growth targets. removed: Pending. added: Passed. Watch: Clear unit, margin and cost targets with dated milestones pass; vague targets or a lower profit outlook fail. added: Outcome: CarMax set targets through fiscal 2030 for retail used units, adjusted EPS, SG&A savings, gross profit per car and CAF Tier 2 loans, with dated milestones. Dec 17, 2026: Q3 fiscal 2027 results: volume and profit per car. Pending. Watch: Comparable store used unit growth with gross profit per retail car near $2,100 and the start of buybacks pass; falling units or another large drop in profit per car fail. Apr 2027 (estimate): Q4 fiscal 2027 results: full year and SG&A cuts. Pending. Watch: SG&A savings at the $200 million exit rate and CAF loan losses in line with the allowance pass; missed cost targets or a higher loss provision fail.
- Recent events
- added: Nov 3, 2026: CarMax held its Strategic Update. Through fiscal 2030, from a fiscal 2026 base, it targets retail used unit growth at a mid-single-digit yearly rate and adjusted EPS growth at a mid-teens yearly rate. It expects $200 million of run-rate SG&A savings at the end of fiscal 2027, gross profit per retail car steady from fiscal 2027, and capital spending of about $500 million a year from fiscal 2028. CAF plans to make 40% of the loans to CarMax's Tier 2 buyers by fiscal 2030, up from 10%, so CAF income falls in fiscal 2027 because of upfront loss provisions. CarMax keeps a leverage target of 1.5 to 2.0 times and plans to continue share buybacks. Oct 19, 2026: CarMax appointed Darren Woodell, the Controller of Genworth Financial, as Vice President, Controller and Chief Accounting Officer from November 11, 2026. The CFO, Enrique Mayor-Mora, stays in his role. Sep 29, 2026: CarMax reported Q2 fiscal 2027 results. Revenue rose 19.5% to $7.9 billion, retail used units rose 13.8%, and comparable store used units rose 13.0%. Gross profit per retail used car fell $111 to $2,105 because of price cuts. Diluted EPS was $1.16, up from $0.64. CarMax said that it plans to resume share buybacks at a modest level in Q3 and to hold a Strategic Update on November 3, 2026. Sep 23, 2026: A court moved the securities class action Jason Cap v. CarMax to the US District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia. The suit covers investors who bought shares between June 20, 2025 and November 5, 2025, and CarMax has filed a motion to dismiss. Jul 31, 2026: CarMax said that Diane Cafritz, Executive Vice President and Chief Innovation and People Officer, will leave the company on December 31, 2026. Jun 23, 2026: Shareholders elected the Board at the annual meeting, including the new directors William Cobb, James Kessler and Robert O'Shaughnessy, and approved an amended stock incentive plan. Jun 17, 2026: CarMax reported Q1 fiscal 2027 results and its four-pillar growth strategy, Shift into GEAR. Revenue rose 6.2% to $8.0 billion, comparable store used units fell 0.8%, and gross profit per retail used car fell $230 to $2,177. Diluted EPS was $1.31, down from $1.38. Jun 15, 2026: CarMax borrowed a new $500 million term loan from a bank group led by MUFG, due June 15, 2029. It used the money to pay down its revolving credit facility.