GOOGL changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $348.99 → $343.92(−1.5%)
- Discount category
- Below intrinsic value → Well below intrinsic value
- Thesis
- The market removed: worries that added: prices Alphabet at a discount for two reasons. It fears AI chatbots will removed: replace added: pull clicks away from Google removed: Search, and that added: Search. It also fears antitrust rulings removed: will added: could force removed: Google added: costly changes to removed: change how it runs its added: ad business. removed: But added: Heavy AI infrastructure spending adds to the worry, since investors are not yet sure it will earn a good return. For the gap to close, Google Cloud removed: is added: must keep growing removed: fast, driven by companies renting AI computing power and using Google's own AI models. added: fast. Search ad revenue removed: has kept added: must also keep growing even as AI-generated answers removed: now appear next to removed: search results. removed: If added: A US judge ruled in September 2026 that Google will not have to sell its ad exchange or ad server, only follow new bidding rules. This removes the risk of a forced breakup, but either side can still appeal. Alphabet still faces separate antitrust matters in the EU. Alphabet reports Q3 2026 earnings on October 27, 2026. That report will show whether Cloud removed: keeps growing added: growth and Search ad growth both continue at removed: its added: their current removed: pace, added: pace. If both trends hold through early 2027, and removed: Search added: the ad-technology remedy does not removed: shrink added: cut ad revenue much, the removed: way the market fears, the discount can removed: close. added: close over the next two to four quarters.
- Risks
- Google Cloud's growth depends on continued heavy AI spending by Alphabet and by its customers. If AI infrastructure spending slows, Cloud growth can slow with it. AI chatbots and AI-generated answers could reduce the number of clicks on search ads over time. This effect is hard to measure today, since search ad revenue is still growing. added: The September 2026 ad tech ruling requires Google to change how its ad exchange and ad server work, such as sharing bid data with rivals. Compliance costs, or a later appeal that reopens the remedy question, add uncertainty to advertising revenue. In September 2026, a US judge ruled in the ad tech antitrust case that Google must change its ad auction rules but does not have to sell its ad exchange or ad server. Either side can still appeal, and Alphabet faces removed: ongoing added: separate antitrust removed: cases added: matters in the removed: US and the EU. removed: A future ruling could add more restrictions on how Google runs Search, Android, or its advertising business.
- Recent events
- added: Sep 2, 2026: A US judge ruled that Google does not have to sell its AdX ad exchange or its DFP ad server. Google must instead follow new rules for ad auctions, such as sharing real-time bid data with rival ad servers and dropping its "first look" and "last look" bid advantages. Jul 22, 2026: Alphabet reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue grew 24% to $119.8 billion. Google Cloud revenue grew 82% to $24.8 billion. Sep 2, 2025: A US court ruled on remedies in Google's search antitrust case. Google keeps Chrome and Android. Google must end exclusive default-search deals and share some search data with rivals.