GD changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $336.56 → $372.59(+10.7%)
- Discount category
- Below intrinsic value → Close to intrinsic value
- Next earnings
- Oct 30, 2026 → Jan 30, 2027
- Next earnings is estimate
- No → Yes
- Thesis
- General Dynamics trades at a discount because the market doubts that its largest and fastest-growing business, submarines, can earn better margins, and because Gulfstream deliveries can move from quarter to quarter. Marine Systems removed: expects added: had an operating margin of only removed: about 7.4% added: 7.5% in added: the first nine months of 2026, against removed: about 14.7% for Aerospace, because the yards still pay for a larger workforce and late parts from single-source suppliers. The Navy's $76.6 billion award of July 29, 2026 for nine Virginia-class and five Columbia-class submarines secures volume, but the market waits to see if the new prices give higher margins. Gulfstream removed: plans about 160 deliveries added: delivered 119 aircraft in added: the first nine months of 2026, removed: but RBC expects fewer deliveries in added: toward its plan of about 160 for the removed: third quarter, and added: year, but a planned production gap between the last G280 and the new G300 starts in 2027. The CEO also changes on January 1, 2027. For the gap to close, Marine Systems margins must rise above the 2026 level as the new contracts start, Gulfstream must deliver about 160 aircraft in 2026 and guide to growth in 2027, and cash flow must stay near 105% of net income. The removed: first test is the Q3 2026 report on October 30, removed: 2026, with added: 2026 passed the removed: large added: first test: backlog removed: increase from added: rose to $220.3 billion, the removed: submarine awards. added: Marine Systems margin rose to 7.9% in the quarter, and the EPS outlook went up. The next test is the Q4 2026 report with the 2027 outlook, expected in late January 2027, the first under the new CEO. If margins and deliveries hold, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main risk is that supply chain and labor problems keep submarine margins low for years.
- Risks
- Submarine work has low margins. Marine Systems removed: expects added: had an operating margin of removed: about 7.4% added: 7.5% in added: the first nine months of 2026. Single-source suppliers of large parts and the need for more skilled workers slow the work. Much of the work runs on long contracts, so cost overruns can lower profit for years. Gulfstream deliveries can move between quarters, and each jet has a large value. removed: RBC expects 38 deliveries added: Gulfstream delivered 40 aircraft in Q3 removed: 2026, down from 41 added: 2026 and 119 in removed: Q2. added: the first nine months. A planned production gap between the last G280, expected in Q2 2027, and the G300, expected in late 2027 or early 2028, can lower deliveries. Demand for business jets also falls in a weak economy. Most revenue comes from the US government. Changes to the defense budget, delays in funding, or a government shutdown can slow contracts and payments. The CEO said in July 2026 that the industry needs more funds for production. The CEO changes on January 1, 2027, when Danny Deep replaces Phebe Novakovic. Novakovic stays as Executive Chairman, and Deep has run large parts of the company, so the risk of a change in strategy is low.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: removed: $4.3B added: $4.4B Debt: removed: $7.6B added: $7.1B Net debt: removed: $3.2B added: $2.7B Interest cover: removed: 24× added: 27× Undrawn credit line: $4.0B, to March 2027 Debt due within 12 months: removed: $1.3B added: $756M General Dynamics had removed: $7.57 added: $7.07 billion of debt principal at removed: July 5, added: October 4, 2026, down from $8.07 billion at December 31, 2025. removed: In June 2026, it added: It repaid $500 million of notes removed: from cash, added: in June 2026 and removed: it planned to repay $500 million removed: more in August 2026 from cash. added: Debt of $756 million is due within 12 months, mainly notes of $750 million due in April 2027. Cash was $4.39 billion, and net debt was $2.63 billion. It had no commercial paper outstanding at removed: July 5, added: October 4, 2026. A $4 billion committed bank credit facility supports commercial paper and ends in March 2027, and the company may renew or replace it before then. Interest cover is operating earnings divided by net interest expense of removed: $118 added: $163 million for the first removed: half added: nine months of 2026. Management added: now expects net interest expense of about removed: $270 added: $215 million for removed: 2026 and free added: 2026. Free cash flow removed: of about 105% of net income. In added: was $4.83 billion in the removed: second half added: first nine months of 2026, removed: cash flow should be lower because of about $500 million of cash taxes, added: and the company paid a pension contribution of removed: about $500 million removed: and higher capital spending. added: in the third quarter. As of removed: Jul 5, added: Oct 4, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 30, 2026: Q3 2026 results: backlog, Marine margin and Gulfstream deliveries. removed: Pending. added: Passed. Watch: A large backlog increase from the submarine awards, a Marine Systems margin at or above 7.4% and a 2026 plan of about 160 Gulfstream deliveries pass; a lower delivery plan or lower EPS guidance fails. added: Outcome: Backlog rose to $220.3 billion, the Marine Systems margin was 7.9% in the quarter, and the company raised its 2026 EPS outlook to $17.20 to $17.30. Jan added: 30, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 outlook, first under the new CEO. Pending. Watch: A 2027 outlook with higher Marine Systems margins and more Gulfstream deliveries passes; flat margins or fewer deliveries because of the G280 to G300 gap fail. Mar 2027 (estimate): Renewal of the $4 billion credit facility. Pending. Watch: A renewal or replacement before March 2027 on similar terms passes; no renewal fails.
- Recent events
- Oct added: 30, 2026: General Dynamics reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue was $14.6 billion, up 12.9%, and diluted EPS was $4.49, up 15.7%. Orders of $98.8 billion, mainly for Virginia-class and Columbia-class submarines, gave a book-to-bill of 6.8 to 1, and backlog rose to $220.3 billion. The Marine Systems operating margin was 7.9%, and Gulfstream delivered 40 aircraft. The company raised its 2026 outlook to revenue of $56.5 billion to $56.8 billion and diluted EPS of $17.20 to $17.30. Oct 15, 2026: RBC Capital cut its price target to $360 from $410 and kept its Sector Perform rating. It lowered its Q3 2026 Gulfstream delivery estimate to 38 from 41, and its 2026 estimate to 160 from 162. Oct 9, 2026: General Dynamics said it will hold its Q3 2026 earnings call on October 30, 2026. Oct 7, 2026: The board elected President Danny Deep as CEO from January 1, 2027. Phebe Novakovic, Chairman and CEO, will become Executive Chairman. Jul 29, 2026: The Navy awarded Electric Boat $42.1 billion for nine Block VI Virginia-class submarines and $29.5 billion for five Columbia-class Build II submarines, part of a $76.6 billion package. HII's Newport News yard delivers six of the nine Virginia-class boats, and the work runs to July 2038. Jul 29, 2026: General Dynamics reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue was $14.1 billion, up 8.1%, and diluted EPS was $4.24, up 13.4%. Book-to-bill was 1.4 to 1, and backlog was $136.5 billion. It raised its 2026 EPS guidance to $16.80 to $16.90, from $16.45 to $16.55, and kept its plan of about 160 Gulfstream deliveries. Apr 29, 2026: General Dynamics reported Q1 2026 results. Revenue was $13.5 billion, up 10.3%, and diluted EPS was $4.10, up 12%. Book-to-bill was 2 to 1.