EFX changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $161.25 → $188.41(+16.8%)
- Discount category
- Below intrinsic value → Close to intrinsic value
- Next earnings
- Oct 20, 2026 → Jan 20, 2027
- Next earnings is estimate
- No → Yes
- About
- Equifax is a global data, analytics and technology company based in Atlanta. It has about 15,000 employees and operates or has investments in 24 countries. It has three segments. Workforce Solutions sells employment and income verification from its database of payroll records, called The Work Number, and employer services. U.S. Information Solutions (USIS) is the US consumer credit bureau. International runs credit bureaus in countries such as Canada, Australia and the United Kingdom. Revenue was removed: $1.70 added: $1.69 billion in removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026. Mortgage lenders are large customers of both Workforce Solutions and USIS, so mortgage volumes affect results.
- Thesis
- The market prices Equifax for its dependence on a slow mortgage market and for removed: lower margins in its removed: most profitable segment. added: debt. US mortgage revenue grew removed: 25% added: 15% in removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026, but added: the mortgage removed: rates stayed high, added: market became much weaker in the second half of the quarter. Because of this, Equifax reduced its 2026 revenue guidance in October 2026, and the company's growth plan added: still assumes more mortgage activity over time. removed: The operating margin of Workforce Solutions fell to 44.9% in Q2 2026 from 46.4% a year earlier, and net income fell 4%. Debt removed: rose to $5.5 added: was $5.2 billion at removed: June added: September 30, 2026, after share buybacks, and Equifax removed: agreed added: expects to buy Círculo de Crédito in Mexico for an enterprise value of $750 removed: million. added: million in Q4 2026. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Equifax must reach its added: reduced 2026 guidance of revenue of removed: $6.71 added: $6.646 to removed: $6.78 added: $6.676 billion and adjusted EPS of removed: $8.39 added: $8.45 to removed: $8.69. added: $8.55. Workforce Solutions must keep growing outside mortgage, with the government contracts signed in 2026 adding revenue from 2027. Free cash flow must rise, so that the company can pay for the Mexican purchase and keep its buybacks without much more debt. The removed: Q3 added: full-year 2026 report removed: on October 20, 2026 gives added: and the removed: next test. The 2027 removed: guidance added: guidance, expected in removed: February 2027 is added: early 2027, are the main test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is a long period of high mortgage rates, which keeps mortgage volumes low.
- Risks
- Mortgage lenders are large customers. High mortgage rates keep mortgage volumes low, which slows the growth of both Workforce Solutions and USIS. Workforce Solutions has the highest margins in the company. Its operating margin removed: fell to added: was 44.1% in Q3 2026, up from 43.8% a year earlier but below 44.9% in Q2 removed: 2026 from 46.4%, and further added: 2026. Further pressure on its pricing or data would hurt profit. Debt removed: rose to $5.5 added: was $5.2 billion at removed: June added: September 30, 2026, and the Círculo de Crédito purchase will add more. Higher debt leaves less room for buybacks if results are weak. International revenue is exposed to exchange rates and to the economies of Latin America, Canada, Europe and Asia Pacific.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: removed: $170M added: $193M Debt: removed: $5.5B added: $5.2B Net debt: removed: $5.3B Undrawn credit line: $600M added: $5.0B Debt due within 12 months: removed: $1.4B added: $158M Equifax funds its operations with senior notes and commercial paper, which its added: $2.0 billion revolving credit facility backs. At removed: June added: September 30, 2026, total debt was removed: $5.49 billion. This includes $1.41 added: $5.21 billion: $158 million of short-term debt and current maturities and $5.05 billion removed: due within one year, mostly $1.40 billion of removed: commercial paper. added: long-term debt. Cash was removed: $170 added: $193 million. removed: The undrawn credit is the amount still available under the $2.0 added: Short-term debt fell from $1.41 billion removed: revolving facility after the commercial paper it supports. In July added: at June 30, 2026, added: because Equifax sold $1.0 billion of senior notes due 2029 and 2033 added: in July 2026 and used the money to repay commercial removed: paper, which moved short-term debt to longer terms. added: paper. In the first nine months of 2026, operating cash flow was $1,142 million and capital expenditures were $379 million. The purchase of Círculo de Crédito, expected to close in Q4 2026, will add about $750 million of enterprise value. As of removed: Jun added: Sep 30, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 20, 2026: Q3 2026 earnings: mortgage and Workforce Solutions. removed: Pending. added: Failed. Watch: Revenue of $1.68 to $1.71 billion, adjusted EPS of $2.15 to $2.25 and stable Workforce Solutions margins pass; results below the guidance or lower 2026 guidance fail. removed: Feb added: Outcome: Revenue of $1,692.5 million and adjusted EPS of $2.26 met the guidance, but Equifax reduced its 2026 revenue guidance because of a weaker US mortgage market. Q4 2026 (estimate): Círculo de Crédito purchase closes. Pending. Watch: A close in Q4 2026 passes; a delay into 2027 added: or the end of the agreement fails. Jan 20, 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: 2026 adjusted EPS inside the removed: $8.39 added: $8.45 to removed: $8.69 added: $8.55 guidance and 2027 guidance for growth in revenue and free cash flow pass; flat 2027 guidance or higher debt without growth fails.
- Recent events
- added: Oct 20, 2026: Equifax reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue rose 10% to $1,692.5 million, and adjusted EPS rose 11% to $2.26. Workforce Solutions revenue rose 7%, USIS revenue rose 13% and International revenue rose 9%. US mortgage revenue rose 15%, but the mortgage market became much weaker in the second half of the quarter. Equifax reduced its 2026 revenue guidance to $6.646 to $6.676 billion and set adjusted EPS guidance at $8.45 to $8.55, $0.04 lower at the midpoint. It expects the Círculo de Crédito purchase to close in Q4 2026. Jul 29, 2026: Equifax sold $500 million of 5.000% senior notes due 2029 and $500 million of 5.650% senior notes due 2033. It used the money to repay commercial paper. Jul 21, 2026: Equifax reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue rose 11% to $1.70 billion and adjusted EPS rose 13% to $2.25. Workforce Solutions revenue rose 7% and USIS revenue rose 17%. Equifax signed an agreement to buy Círculo de Crédito, a Mexican credit bureau, for an enterprise value of $750 million, with closing expected in Q4 2026. It doubled its target for AI-driven cost savings from 2026 to 2028 to $150 million and returned $366 million to shareholders. Apr 24, 2026: Equifax increased its revolving credit facility to $2.0 billion from $1.5 billion and extended the term of most of the commitments. It also increased its commercial paper program to $2.0 billion.