DUK changes
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- Price
- $129.59 → $128.77(−0.6%)
- Thesis
- The market prices Duke Energy for a very large building plan that needs more debt and new shares. Total debt was $92.8 billion at September 30, 2026. In August 2026, Duke sold $2.0 billion of equity units, which oblige holders to buy new shares by August 2029. Regulators in its states also watch customer bills closely: removed: Duke Energy Florida removed: asked to added: regulators approved lower rates removed: in added: at Duke Energy Florida for 2027, and Duke said in October 2026 that it protects customers from the costs of data centers. Storms add costs, such as Hurricane Isaias in Florida in October 2026. For the gap to close, three things must be true. The North Carolina Utilities Commission must approve the settlements in the Duke Energy Carolinas and Duke Energy Progress rate cases, with a return on equity of 9.8% on a 53% equity ratio, by November 2026, as Duke expects. Adjusted EPS must reach the narrowed 2026 guidance of $6.70 to $6.80 and keep growing 5% to 7% a year, in the top half of that range from 2028, as Duke expects. Duke must fund its plan without more equity than planned. The North Carolina orders, expected in November 2026, and the 2027 guidance with the Q4 2026 report in February 2027 are the next tests. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is higher interest rates, which raise financing costs and make regulated returns less attractive.
- Recent events
- Nov added: 9, 2026: Duke amended its main credit agreement. The lenders agreed to let Duke Energy Progress merge into Duke Energy Carolinas, which Duke expects to do on January 1, 2027. Nov 5, 2026: Duke reported Q3 2026 results. Reported and adjusted EPS were $1.99, up from $1.81, because of the recovery of grid investments and favorable weather. Duke narrowed its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $6.70 to $6.80, from $6.55 to $6.80, and expects results near the top. It kept its growth target of 5% to 7% a year through 2030 and expects to grow in the top half of that range from 2028. The merger of Duke Energy Progress into Duke Energy Carolinas is still targeted for January 1, 2027. added: Nov 3, 2026: The Florida Public Service Commission approved Duke Energy Florida's request to lower its rates in 2027. A typical residential customer who uses 1,000 kWh a month will pay $33 less in January 2027 than in January 2026. Duke said that a new tax strategy let it avoid a base rate increase that was planned for 2027. Oct 10, 2026: Hurricane Isaias passed through Florida. Duke Energy Florida restored power to about 10,000 customers by the next morning, with about 2,200 still without power, and said that its grid improvements helped customers. Sep 25, 2026: Duke's board appointed Joyce Mullen, the former CEO of Insight Enterprises, as a director from September 28, 2026. Sep 3, 2026: Duke Energy Florida asked regulators to lower its rates from January 2027, compared with December 2026. Aug 13, 2026: Duke sold 40 million equity units for $2.0 billion. Each unit includes a contract to buy Duke shares by August 1, 2029 and an interest in 4.85% notes due 2032 and 2036. The total annual payment on the units is 7.75%. Aug 5, 2026: Duke Energy Progress filed a settlement in its North Carolina rate case with a return on equity of 9.8% on a 53% equity ratio and about $3.4 billion of capital in its multi-year rate plan. Duke Energy Carolinas filed a similar settlement on July 17, 2026, with about $3.8 billion of capital. Orders are expected by November 2026. Aug 4, 2026: Duke reported Q2 2026 results. Reported EPS was $1.38 and adjusted EPS was $1.43, up from $1.25. Duke reaffirmed its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.55 to $6.80 and its 5% to 7% growth target through 2030.