DTEGY changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $29.05 → $29.04(−0.0%)
- Next earnings
- Nov 5, 2026 → Feb 25, 2027
- Thesis
- Deutsche Telekom trades at a discount because the market fears new competition for T-Mobile US, its largest asset, and because a holding company rarely trades at the full value of its stakes. The company says that the SpaceX IPO, completed in June 2026, dominated the market for US telecom stocks in the first half of 2026, and investors fear SpaceX as a future competitor. The T-Share fell to its low for the half year, EUR 23.85, on June 30, 2026. On October 9, 2026, T-Mobile US fell about 13% and Deutsche Telekom fell about 9%, after press reports that SpaceX had bought low-band spectrum from Grain Management. Analysts also point to more promotions from Verizon and AT&T. The operating results stay strong: adjusted EBITDA AL grew removed: 7.3% added: 8.0% in organic terms in removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026, removed: and Deutsche Telekom raised its removed: free cash flow added: 2026 guidance added: again in November 2026, and removed: its 2026 share buy-back to added: it plans a 10% higher dividend and up to EUR removed: 5 billion. added: 2 billion of buy-backs in 2027. For the gap to close, T-Mobile US must keep adding postpaid accounts inside its guidance of 950,000 to 1,050,000 for 2026 and keep EBITDA growth near 10%, satellite services must stay a small threat to ground networks, and Deutsche Telekom must meet its 2026 targets of about EUR removed: 47.5 added: 47.6 billion of adjusted EBITDA AL and about EUR 2.20 of adjusted EPS. The removed: tests are added: next test is the removed: T-Mobile US Q3 report in late October 2026, Deutsche Telekom's Q3 report on November 5, 2026, and the full-year report on February 25, 2027. If US growth holds, part of the gap can close over two to three years, but the holding structure keeps some discount.
- Risks
- T-Mobile US is most of the group's value. New competition, such as satellite services from SpaceX, or price competition from Verizon and AT&T can slow its customer growth and lower its share price. Deutsche Telekom's share price follows it. A weaker US dollar lowers the value of T-Mobile US results in euros. Exchange rate effects already lowered reported growth in the first half of 2026. In Germany, the number of broadband lines falls as customers leave copper lines, and only part of them move to fiber. Broadband customers fell by 20,000 in Q2 2026. Net debt including leases was EUR removed: 138.4 added: 134.2 billion at removed: June added: September 30, 2026, up EUR removed: 5.9 added: 1.7 billion in removed: six added: nine months, mainly because of share buy-backs at T-Mobile US and Deutsche Telekom. Higher interest rates raise the cost of new debt. The German state owns 28.6% of the shares with KfW. Regulation of telecom prices, spectrum and network rules in Europe and the US can limit returns.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: removed: €5.4B added: €8.2B Debt: removed: €114.0B added: €113.4B Net debt: removed: €108.6B added: €105.1B EBITDA, last 12 months: removed: €45.3B added: €46.4B Net debt / EBITDA: removed: 2.4× added: 2.3× (medium) removed: Interest cover: 3.9× Debt due within 12 months: €13.0B Ratings: Moody's A3 (stable outlook), S&P A- (stable outlook), Fitch A- (stable outlook) At removed: June added: September 30, 2026, Deutsche Telekom had EUR removed: 5.4 added: 8.2 billion of cash and EUR removed: 114.0 added: 113.4 billion of financial added: liabilities: EUR 93.6 billion of bonds and other securitized liabilities, removed: most added: EUR 4.4 billion of removed: them bonds. added: bank loans, EUR 3.1 billion of liabilities backed by trade receivables and EUR 12.3 billion of other financial liabilities. Debt here does not include EUR removed: 36.1 added: 35.7 billion of lease liabilities. Much of the debt sits at T-Mobile US. The company reports net debt AL, which leaves out most leases and nets some financial assets, of EUR removed: 104.4 added: 100.5 billion, up from EUR 98.1 billion at December 31, 2025, mainly because of share buy-backs. Net debt including leases was EUR 134.2 billion. EBITDA is adjusted EBITDA AL for the 12 months to removed: June added: September 2026, worked out from the full-year 2025 and removed: half-year added: nine-month figures. removed: Interest cover is EBIT divided by interest expense for the first half of 2026. EUR 13.0 billion of financial liabilities fall due within one year, and EUR 60.9 billion are due after five years. Net debt rose in the first half of 2026 because of share buy-backs of EUR 6.1 billion at T-Mobile US and EUR 1.0 billion at Deutsche Telekom. S&P raised its rating to A- on May 11, 2026, and Fitch did the same on June 22, 2026. The company targets ratings between BBB and A-. As of removed: Jun added: Sep 30, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 5, 2026: Q3 2026 results: T-Mobile US growth and guidance. removed: Pending. added: Passed. Watch: Organic adjusted EBITDA AL growth near 7%, T-Mobile US postpaid account growth on track for its 2026 guidance and confirmed group guidance pass; slower US account growth or a cut to guidance fails. added: Outcome: Adjusted EBITDA AL grew 8.0% in organic terms, T-Mobile US is on track for its postpaid account target and Deutsche Telekom raised its 2026 guidance. Feb 25, 2027: Full-year 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: 2026 targets met, 2027 guidance with growth in adjusted EBITDA AL and EPS, and continued buy-backs pass; lower US growth guidance fails.
- Recent events
- added: Nov 5, 2026: Deutsche Telekom reported Q3 2026 results. Net revenue grew 5.5% in organic terms to EUR 31.1 billion, adjusted EBITDA AL grew 8.0% in organic terms to EUR 12.2 billion, and adjusted net profit rose 12.7% to EUR 3.0 billion. T-Mobile US added 274,000 postpaid accounts and is on track for its 2026 target. Deutsche Telekom raised its 2026 guidance to about EUR 47.6 billion of adjusted EBITDA AL and about EUR 20.1 billion of free cash flow AL, and kept adjusted EPS at about EUR 2.20. It plans a dividend of EUR 1.10 per share for 2026, up 10%, and share buy-backs of up to EUR 2 billion in 2027. Oct 19, 2026: Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Telefonica and Vodafone signed a letter of intent to study a joint bid for European 2 GHz mobile satellite spectrum, for direct-to-device services, press reports said. The current licenses in this band end in May 2027. Oct 9, 2026: T-Mobile US fell about 13% and Deutsche Telekom's ADR fell about 9%. Press reports tied the fall to news that SpaceX had bought low-band 800 MHz spectrum from Grain Management, which raised fears of a new wireless competitor. Verizon and AT&T also fell. Oct 5, 2026: At an AI Investor Day in Bonn, Deutsche Telekom confirmed its guidance and medium-term targets. It aims for about EUR 800 million of AI-related revenue from business outside the US by 2030, from about EUR 250 million in 2026. It expects about EUR 1.1 billion of gross savings from AI and automation outside the US by 2027 and about EUR 2.5 billion of indirect cost savings by 2030, both against 2023. Aug 17, 2026: Deutsche Telekom agreed to buy Fiberhost, a Polish fiber network operator, and Inea, a Polish broadband and TV provider, from Macquarie Asset Management for an enterprise value of about EUR 1 billion. The deal adds over 300,000 customers and a network that passes over 1.4 million homes to T-Mobile Polska. Aug 6, 2026: Deutsche Telekom reported Q2 2026 results. Net revenue grew 3.3% in organic terms to EUR 29.9 billion, adjusted EBITDA AL grew 7.3% to EUR 11.8 billion, and adjusted net profit rose 11.1% to EUR 2.8 billion. It raised 2026 free cash flow AL guidance to about EUR 20.0 billion. The same day, it raised its 2026 share buy-back by up to EUR 3 billion, to up to EUR 5 billion, and said the shares trade at the low end of their historical valuation range. Jun 22, 2026: Fitch raised Deutsche Telekom's credit rating to A- with a stable outlook. S&P had raised its rating to A- on May 11, 2026. May 13, 2026: Deutsche Telekom reported Q1 2026 results. Net revenue grew 4.7% in organic terms to EUR 29.9 billion, and adjusted EBITDA AL grew 7.5% to EUR 11.5 billion. It raised its 2026 guidance to about EUR 47.5 billion of adjusted EBITDA AL and more than EUR 19.8 billion of free cash flow AL, and kept adjusted EPS guidance at about EUR 2.20.