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ZBH

Current
Price
$107.47
Discount category
Below intrinsic value
Next earnings
Feb 4, 2027
Next earnings is estimate
Yes
Company name
Zimmer Biomet
Sector
Medical devices
About
Zimmer Biomet makes implants and tools for orthopedic surgery. Its largest products are knee and hip replacements, which gave $767.5 million and $536.5 million of the $2.063 billion of net sales in Q3 2026. It also sells products for sports medicine, extremities, trauma, foot and ankle, and the face and chest (the S.E.T. category), and the ROSA surgical robot, data tools, bone cement and surgical products. Hospitals and surgery centers buy its products, mostly through its own sales teams and independent agents in the US and through distributors in some other countries. It operates in more than 25 countries and sells in more than 100. It bought Paragon 28, a foot and ankle company, in April 2025. In July and August 2026, it bought three smaller companies: the Iovera pain management business, Monteris Medical and Alafair Biosciences.
Thesis
The market doubts that Zimmer Biomet can grow as fast as the market for joint replacements. Knees are its largest business, and knee sales fell 2.6% at constant currency in Q3 2026, with US knee sales down 2.0%. The company said that its US sales force changes, competition in the US and distributor changes in China caused the fall. Other businesses grow faster: at constant currency, hip sales rose 7.0% and S.E.T. sales rose 7.1% in Q3 2026. The company raised its 2026 guidance to 3.0% to 3.5% organic constant currency growth and $8.50 to $8.60 of adjusted EPS. Leadership changes add to the doubt. The CFO left in April 2026 and an interim CFO still served on November 4, 2026, and the head of the Americas and global businesses left on September 30, 2026. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Knee sales must return to growth, with help from the ROSA robot and new products. Organic growth must rise in 2027 after the sales changes are complete. Adjusted EPS must reach the guided $8.50 to $8.60 for 2026, and free cash flow must pay for buybacks and the 2026 purchases while debt stays stable. The full-year 2026 results and the 2027 guidance in early 2027 are the main check. If knee sales and organic growth improve, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. If growth stays below the market, the gap can stay.
Risks
Knee sales do not grow. Knees gave $767.5 million of Q3 2026 net sales and fell 2.6% at constant currency, in the US and in other markets. The changes to how Zimmer Biomet sells in the US and other markets can lose sales reps, agents or customers. The company said that these changes reduce 2026 sales. In China, distributors affected by the changes made legal claims, and the company cannot yet estimate the possible loss. Leadership changes can slow execution. The CFO left in April 2026, and an interim CFO still served at November 4, 2026. The head of the Americas and global businesses left on September 30, 2026. Debt was $7.50 billion at September 30, 2026, and $1.29 billion of it is due within 12 months. Interest cover was about 4.1 times in Q3 2026. Buybacks, a deferred payment of about $186 million for Alafair in Q1 2027 and payments based on targets for recent purchases leave less cash to pay down debt.
Balance sheet
Cash: $400M Debt: $7.5B Net debt: $7.1B Interest cover: 4.1× Undrawn credit line: $1.5B, to June 2031 Debt due within 12 months: $1.3B Last debt due: 2045 Zimmer Biomet funds itself with unsecured notes of the parent company in US dollars, euros and Swiss francs. At September 30, 2026, debt was $7.50 billion at carrying value: $1.29 billion due within 12 months and $6.22 billion long-term. The current part is the 2.425% euro notes due 2026 of $567.7 million, the 4.700% notes due February 2027 of $600 million and $120 million on an uncommitted credit line. The other notes mature from 2027 to 2045. Cash is cash and cash equivalents at September 30, 2026. Interest cover is operating profit of $307.6 million divided by net interest expense of $74.9 million in Q3 2026. Nothing was drawn on the $1.5 billion five-year revolving facility to June 2031 or on the $1.25 billion 364-day facility to June 2027. The facilities require debt of no more than 4.5 times EBITDA. Free cash flow was $372.4 million in Q3 2026. In the first nine months of 2026, the company spent $579.3 million on share buybacks and $359.4 million on three purchases, and $924.7 million of its buyback authorization remained. A deferred payment of about $186 million for Alafair is due in Q1 2027. On November 5, 2026, the company started offerings of new notes in US dollars and euros, which can repay part of the notes due 2026 and 2027. As of Sep 30, 2026.
Checkpoints
Nov 4, 2026: Q3 2026 results: knee sales and organic growth. Failed. Watch: Knee sales that grow again and organic growth at or above the top of the 2026 guidance pass; flat or lower knee sales or a cut to the guidance fail. Outcome: Knee sales fell 2.6% at constant currency, although the company raised its 2026 guidance to 3.0% to 3.5% organic constant currency growth. Feb 4, 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: 2027 guidance with organic growth higher than in 2026 and a permanent CFO in place pass; guidance for growth below the 2026 level fails. Q2 2027 (estimate): US sales changes complete. Pending. Watch: Stable sales teams and higher US knee and hip growth after the changes pass; lost agents or lower US growth fail.
Recent events
Nov 5, 2026: Zimmer Biomet started offerings of new notes in US dollars and in euros. It plans to use the money for general corporate purposes, which can include the repayment of part of its notes due 2026 and 2027, share buybacks and acquisitions. Nov 4, 2026: Zimmer Biomet reported Q3 2026 results. Net sales were $2.063 billion, up 3.1%, or 3.7% at constant currency. At constant currency, knee sales fell 2.6%, hip sales rose 7.0%, S.E.T. sales rose 7.1% and Technology & Data, Bone Cement and Surgical sales rose 13.0%. Adjusted EPS was $1.90, the same as a year earlier, and free cash flow was $372.4 million. It raised its 2026 guidance to 3.0% to 3.5% organic constant currency growth and $8.50 to $8.60 of adjusted EPS. Oct 13, 2026: Zimmer Biomet and THINK Surgical extended for several years their exclusive agreement for the TMINI handheld robot, which works with the Persona Knee System. The companies did not give the financial terms or the exact length. Oct 6, 2026: Zimmer Biomet said that it will report Q3 2026 results at 6:30 a.m. ET on November 4, 2026, with a call at 8:30 a.m. ET. Sep 8, 2026: Zimmer Biomet changed its Americas and global business leadership to speed up its US sales changes. Kevin Thornal, Group President of Global Businesses and the Americas, left on September 30, 2026. From October 1, Gary Campbell leads the Americas, Brian Hatcher leads Recon, S.E.T., CMFT, Neuro and Biosurgery, and Bradley Kessler leads Americas robotics, technology and data. Aug 24, 2026: Zimmer Biomet bought Alafair Biosciences, the maker of a soft-tissue protection device, for $112.6 million in cash at closing, plus a deferred payment and payments based on targets. On August 11, it bought Monteris Medical, the maker of a laser therapy system for brain tumors and epilepsy, for $193.3 million at closing. On July 31, it bought the Iovera pain management business of Pacira BioSciences for $74.6 million at closing. Aug 5, 2026: Zimmer Biomet reported Q2 2026 results. Net sales were $2.177 billion, up 4.8%, or 4.0% on an organic constant currency basis. Knee sales were flat at constant currency, and hip sales grew 5.1%. Adjusted EPS was $2.07, the same as a year earlier. It raised 2026 guidance to 2.25% to 3.25% organic constant currency growth and $8.47 to $8.59 of adjusted EPS. It also received FDA clearance for the next-generation ROSA Shoulder System. Jun 26, 2026: Zimmer Biomet signed a new five-year $1.5 billion revolving credit facility, to June 2031, and a new 364-day $1.25 billion revolving credit facility, to June 2027. May 12, 2026: Zimmer Biomet said that it now expects to buy back up to $1 billion of its stock in 2026, $250 million more than planned, under its $1.5 billion authorization from February 2026. Apr 28, 2026: Zimmer Biomet reported Q1 2026 results. Net sales were $2.087 billion, up 9.3%, or 2.9% on an organic constant currency basis. Adjusted EPS was $2.09, up 15.5%. On April 22, CFO Suketu Upadhyay said that he would resign on April 28 to take a new job. Controller Paul Stellato became interim CFO while the company searches for a permanent CFO.
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