VRSK changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $189.17 → $196.30(+3.8%)
- Thesis
- The market fears that AI will reduce the value of Verisk's data and analytics, and that growth has slowed. Revenue growth fell from 7.5% in 2024 to 6.6% in 2025 and to 3.9% in Q1 2026, which management called the low point. A court case adds a second doubt. In August 2026, a Delaware court ruled that Verisk had no right to end its $2.35 billion purchase of AccuLynx, a roofing software company, and told it to make reasonable efforts to get antitrust approval. Verisk removed: appealed. added: appealed, and on October 23, 2026, the Delaware Supreme Court affirmed the ruling. The FTC asked for more information on the deal in 2025 and has not approved it, and Verisk bought back $1.9 billion of its shares in the first half of 2026 with cash and new debt, so a forced purchase adds debt. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Growth must return to the levels of the Investor Day targets in the second half of 2026, as management expects; in Q2 2026, organic constant currency growth was 5.8% and underlying subscription growth was 8.0%. Insurers must keep buying Verisk's AI products, and subscription renewals must hold. The AccuLynx removed: case added: purchase must removed: end, added: end with small costs, either by removed: a win on appeal added: an FTC decision or by a removed: deal with a clear path to approval added: settlement, and added: with no large damages. The first check is the Q3 2026 report on November 5, 2026. The full-year 2026 report in early 2027 and the removed: Delaware Supreme Court decision added: FTC review of AccuLynx follow. If growth recovers and the case ends, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters.
- Risks
- The AccuLynx case can force Verisk to buy AccuLynx for $2.35 billion, a deal that the FTC questioned for harm to competition and has not approved. removed: If the added: The appeal removed: fails, added: failed in October 2026, so Verisk must work to get approval, and it removed: can owe damages. added: owes AccuLynx its direct costs plus interest. The deal adds debt after Verisk bought back $1.9 billion of shares in the first half of 2026. Legal fees already lowered profit in Q2 2026. AI tools can lower the value of insurance data and analytics, or let insurers and new companies build their own models. Verisk's shares fell by about half from their high by May 2026 on this fear. Longer sales cycles for AI products also slowed growth. Growth can stay slow. Revenue growth fell to 3.9% in Q1 2026, and transaction revenue depends on weather events and claims activity, which change from year to year. Management changes can slow execution. The Chief Information Officer left his role in August 2026, and the Chief Human Relations Officer will retire after a successor is found.
- Checkpoints
- added: Oct 23, 2026: Delaware Supreme Court decision on AccuLynx. Failed. Watch: A win on appeal, or a settlement with small costs, passes; a ruling that forces the $2.35 billion purchase with large damages or a long FTC fight fails. Outcome: The Delaware Supreme Court affirmed the Chancery Court ruling, so Verisk must work to get FTC approval and the $2.35 billion purchase can still go ahead. Nov 5, 2026: Q3 2026 results: growth recovery. Pending. Watch: Organic constant currency growth above the 5.8% of Q2 and subscription growth near 8% pass; growth that falls back toward the 3.9% of Q1 fails. Feb 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: 2027 guidance with growth at the Investor Day target levels passes; lower growth guidance or a weaker margin fails. 2027 (estimate): removed: Delaware Supreme Court decision on AccuLynx. added: FTC review of the AccuLynx purchase. Pending. Watch: removed: A win on appeal, added: An FTC decision or a settlement added: that ends the purchase obligation with small removed: costs, added: costs passes; a removed: ruling that forces the added: forced $2.35 billion purchase added: funded with removed: large damages or a long FTC fight added: more debt fails.
- Recent events
- Oct added: 23, 2026: The Delaware Supreme Court affirmed the Chancery Court ruling in the AccuLynx case. Verisk said that it will act in line with the court order. The $2.35 billion purchase still needs FTC review and other closing conditions, and Verisk said that it is not certain that the deal will close. Oct 1, 2026: Verisk set November 5, 2026, before the market opens, as the date of its Q3 2026 results. Aug 18, 2026: Verisk filed an appeal with the Delaware Supreme Court against the Chancery Court ruling in its case with AccuLynx. Aug 7, 2026: The Delaware Court of Chancery ruled that Verisk had no right to end its $2.35 billion merger agreement with AccuLynx. The court ordered Verisk to use commercially reasonable efforts to get regulatory approval, and gave AccuLynx damages for its direct costs plus interest. The court did not order Verisk to close the deal at once. Verisk's shares opened 5.7% lower on August 10. Jul 29, 2026: Verisk reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue was $806 million, up 4.3%, or 5.8% on an organic constant currency basis, with 8.0% underlying subscription growth. Adjusted EPS was $1.98, up 5.3%, and free cash flow was $298 million, up 57.9%. Legal fees for the AccuLynx case lowered GAAP net income by 9.8%. Verisk kept its 2026 outlook and expects growth to return to the levels of its Investor Day targets in the second half. Jul 27, 2026: Verisk said that Nick Daffan, its Chief Information Officer, would leave the role on August 3, 2026, and stay as a strategic advisor until the end of the year. Jun 26, 2026: The trial in the AccuLynx case ended in the Delaware Court of Chancery. It ran from June 23 to 26, 2026. Apr 29, 2026: Verisk reported Q1 2026 results. Revenue was $783 million, up 3.9%, or 4.7% on an organic constant currency basis. Transaction revenue fell 6.1% because of weather, renewal comparisons and a federal contract. Adjusted EPS was $1.82. Verisk kept its 2026 guidance of $3.19 to $3.24 billion of revenue and $7.45 to $7.75 of adjusted EPS.