UL changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $66.47 → $65.78(−1.0%)
- Thesis
- The market holds Unilever's price down while its Foods business is in a slow and complex separation. On March 31, 2026, Unilever agreed to combine Foods with McCormick. Unilever gets $15.7 billion in cash, its shareholders get 55.1% of the new company, and Unilever keeps 9.9%. The deal closes only by mid-2027, Unilever shareholders do not vote on it, and antitrust reviews can ask for sales of brands. The US review ended early on October 5, 2026, but added: on November 11, 2026 the UK added: authority said that it may send the deal to a longer second-phase review, and added: the EU removed: reviews continue. added: review continues. Investors also expect that many Unilever shareholders will sell the McCormick shares they receive, and Unilever plans to sell its own stake after a one-year lock-up. The London share price fell about 14% from March 17 to April 14, 2026 on this news. A strong euro added pressure, because currency cut turnover by 4.9% in the first half of 2026, but currency added 0.6% in Q3 2026. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Underlying sales growth must stay in the 4% to 6% range, with the second half at about 5% and volume growth of at least 3% for 2026, as guided on October 28, 2026. The underlying operating margin must rise above the 20.0% of 2025. The Foods deal must pass its steps on time: the McCormick registration statement, the McCormick shareholder vote, the antitrust approvals and the closing by mid-2027. The Q3 2026 trading statement on October 28, 2026 showed growth of 5.2%, with 2.9% from volume. Before its investor event of November 4, 2026, Unilever said that it expects 2027 to meet its medium-term targets of 4% to 6% underlying sales growth, at least 2% volume growth and a modest rise in the margin. added: On November 11, 2026, the UK Competition and Markets Authority said that the Foods deal may reduce competition in the UK, and it will send the deal to an in-depth second-phase review unless the parties offer acceptable remedies. The next checks are the removed: UK first-phase antitrust decision by November 11, 2026 added: parties' answer to that finding and the full-year 2026 results on February 11, 2027. If growth holds and the deal closes on plan, the gap can close over the next two to four quarters.
- Risks
- The Foods combination with McCormick is long and complex. It needs a McCormick shareholder vote, antitrust approvals in the UK and the EU, and other approvals, and it is expected to close only by mid-2027. added: On November 11, 2026, the UK authority found that the deal may reduce competition in the UK and said it will open a second-phase review unless the parties offer remedies. Regulators can ask for brand sales, and delays can keep the uncertainty on the share price. Unilever expects to give transition services to the combined company for about two to three years. Sales of the new McCormick shares can press on prices. Unilever shareholders will own 55.1% of the combined company, and many may sell. Unilever plans to sell its 9.9% stake after a one-year lock-up. Currency changes reduce reported results. Currency cut turnover by 4.9% and underlying EPS by 6.0% in the first half of 2026, and it added 0.6% to turnover in Q3 2026. A large part of sales comes from emerging markets with weak currencies. Higher commodity costs made Unilever raise prices, and price growth rose to 2.3% in Q3 2026. Weak consumers or strong competition can make price increases harder. Developed markets fell 0.9% in Q3 2026, and US Foods faced more competition in condiments.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 28, 2026: Q3 2026 trading statement: sales growth. Passed. Watch: Underlying sales growth of 4% or more with positive volume, and the full-year outlook kept, pass; growth below 4% or a cut to the outlook fails. Outcome: Underlying sales growth was 5.2% with 2.9% from volume, and Unilever raised its 2026 volume outlook to at least 3%. Nov 4, 2026: Investor event in New York. Passed. Watch: Clear medium-term targets for the home and personal care company, with margin growth above the 20.0% of 2025, pass; lower targets or more spending with no margin gain fail. Outcome: Unilever confirmed 4% to 6% yearly sales growth with a modest margin rise, expected 2027 to meet it and planned €1 billion of savings by 2029. Nov 11, 2026: UK first-phase antitrust decision on the Foods deal. removed: Pending. added: Failed. Watch: Clearance, or clearance with small remedies, passes; a move to an in-depth second-phase review fails. added: Outcome: On November 11, 2026, the UK Competition and Markets Authority found that the deal may reduce competition and said it will refer the deal to a phase 2 investigation unless the parties offer an acceptable undertaking. Nov 18, 2026 (estimate): Parties' answer to the UK competition finding. Pending. Watch: An undertaking that the CMA accepts, so that it does not open a phase 2 investigation, passes; a phase 2 reference fails. Feb 11, 2027: Full-year 2026 results and 2027 outlook. Pending. Watch: Underlying sales growth within 4% to 6%, an underlying operating margin above the 20.0% of 2025 and a 2027 outlook in the same range pass; growth below 4% or a lower margin fails. Q2 2027 (estimate): Foods and McCormick deal closing. Pending. Watch: The McCormick vote, the antitrust approvals and the closing by mid-2027 with no large brand sales pass; a delay past mid-2027 or large required sales fail.
- Recent events
- Nov added: 11, 2026: The UK Competition and Markets Authority ended its first-phase review of the McCormick and Unilever Foods deal. It decided that the deal may be expected to reduce competition in one or more UK markets. The CMA will refer the deal to an in-depth phase 2 investigation unless the parties offer an acceptable undertaking. The CMA has not yet published the full decision. Nov 3, 2026: Before its investor event of November 4, 2026, Unilever confirmed its medium-term targets: underlying sales growth of 4% to 6% each year, volume growth of at least 2% and a modest rise in the underlying operating margin. It expects 2027 to meet these targets. It plans €1 billion of productivity savings by the end of 2029, which includes the costs that stay after the Foods deal. A new operating model with six regional units starts during 2027, and new leaders take their roles on January 1, 2027. After the change, Unilever will report three categories: Beauty & Personal Care, Home Care and Other. Oct 28, 2026: Unilever reported its Q3 2026 trading statement. Underlying sales growth was 5.2%, with 2.9% from volume and 2.3% from price, as Unilever raised prices because of higher commodity costs. Turnover grew 6.7% to €13.3 billion. Home Care grew 9.1% and emerging markets grew 9.5%, but developed markets fell 0.9% and Foods grew only 0.1%. Unilever raised its 2026 outlook to at least 3% volume growth and second-half sales growth of about 5%, and it kept the 4% to 6% range for the year. It said that the Foods deal with McCormick is on track. Oct 19, 2026: Unilever agreed to sell Welly, a small US first-aid brand, to the private equity firm Forward Consumer Partners. The companies did not give the price. The sale is expected to close by the end of 2026. Oct 5, 2026: The US Federal Trade Commission ended the US antitrust waiting period early for the combination of McCormick and Unilever Foods, trade press reported. The UK Competition and Markets Authority must give its first-phase decision by November 11, 2026. Sep 9, 2026: At a Barclays conference, McCormick presented its plans for the integration, the cost savings and the debt reduction after the combination with Unilever Foods. The deal still needs the McCormick shareholder vote, antitrust approvals and an effective registration statement. Jul 28, 2026: Unilever reported first-half 2026 results. Underlying sales growth was 4.8%, with 4.2% from volume, and Q2 growth was 5.8%, with 5.5% volume, the best volume quarter in more than ten years. Turnover was €25.6 billion, up 0.5% after a 4.9% currency loss. Underlying EPS rose 2.4% to €1.61. Unilever raised its 2026 outlook to underlying sales growth within 4% to 6%, with about 3% volume, and a small rise in the margin. Jul 23, 2026: McCormick announced the planned operating model and the executive team of the company that will combine McCormick and Unilever Foods, with a secondary listing in London. Jun 5, 2026: Unilever completed its €1.5 billion share buyback, which started on April 30, 2026. It bought back 30,703,780 shares. It plans a total of €6 billion of buybacks from 2026 to 2029, funded partly by the Foods deal. Apr 30, 2026: Unilever reported Q1 2026 underlying sales growth of 3.8%, with 2.9% volume. Turnover fell 3.3% to €12.6 billion because of currency. It raised the quarterly dividend by 3% to €0.4664.