STLD changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $238.99
- Discount category
- Pricey
- Intrinsic value source
- AI estimate
- Next earnings
- Jan 26, 2027
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes
- Company name
- added: Steel Dynamics
- Sector
- added: Steel and metals recycling
- About
- added: Steel Dynamics, Inc. (Steel Dynamics) is a US steel producer and metals recycler, based in Fort Wayne, Indiana. It has four segments: steel operations, metals recycling, steel fabrication and aluminum. Its mills use scrap steel as the main input. In Q3 2026, steel shipments were a record 3.8 million tons, and net sales were $6.5 billion. It is also building an aluminum flat-rolled products business, which is still in start-up. Mark Millett is Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. The board named Theresa Wagler, now Chief Financial Officer, as President and Chief Executive Officer from January 1, 2027, and Millett will become Executive Chairman. The shares trade on Nasdaq in US dollars.
- Thesis
- added: The market prices Steel Dynamics above the AI estimate, because investors expect high US steel prices to last and the aluminum business to start to earn money. In Q3 2026, net income was $756 million, or $5.26 per diluted share, against $3.69 in Q2. The average steel selling price rose $102 to $1,400 per ton, while scrap cost fell $8 to $404 per ton. The company says that imports are well below past levels and that customer inventories are low. Steel earnings swing with prices, so the price is earned only if Q3 is not a peak. For the price to be earned, four things must be true. Spreads between steel prices and scrap cost must stay wide, as the company expects through 2027. Aluminum must move from the Q3 2026 operating loss of $26 million to profit as the second CASH line starts in early 2027. Fabrication orders, which are 50% higher than a year ago, must turn into earnings. The new Chief Executive Officer must keep the capital plan, including buybacks under a new $3.0 billion authorization. The next tests are the Q4 2026 report in January 2027 and the aluminum ramp in 2027. If steel prices fall or the aluminum losses last, the price can fall toward the AI estimate.
- Valuation
- added: The intrinsic value for Steel Dynamics is an AI estimate from November 12, 2026. It is not an analyst's value. An AI research agent calculated it from the filings of Steel Dynamics with the SEC. Steel earnings swing with prices, so the method is a multiple of a normalized earnings per share for 2027 that the estimate sets in three cases, and each case has its own multiple. The Q3 2026 release (8-K, October 19, 2026) gives net income of $756 million, or $5.26 per diluted share, for Q3, $3.69 per diluted share for Q2, and $11.72 per diluted share for nine months, so Q1 was $2.77. Nine months annualized is $15.63 per share and Q3 annualized is $21.04 per share. The release also gives an average steel selling price of $1,400 per ton in Q3 and scrap cost of $404 per ton, and the company expects aluminum volumes and profitability to improve through 2027. The Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 gives 142,217,487 shares outstanding at October 21, 2026, cash of $928.6 million and debt of $4,203.9 million. Interest on this debt is already in net income, so the estimate makes no debt adjustment. The 2027 EPS and the multiples are assumptions. The low case assumes $12.00, which is below the nine-month rate because steel prices fall back, at 9 times. It gives $108.00 per share. The base case assumes $17.50, which is between the nine-month rate and the Q3 rate, at 11.5 times. It gives $201.25 per share. The high case assumes $22.00, which is about the Q3 rate, because prices hold and aluminum turns profitable, at 13 times. It gives $286.00 per share. The estimate assumes weights of 25%, 50% and 25%. The weighted intrinsic value is $199.13 per share. As of Nov 12, 2026.
- Risks
- added: Steel prices are cyclical. Steel operations earned $2.3 billion of operating income in nine months of 2026, and Q3 may be a high point. If imports return or demand falls, profit can fall fast. The aluminum start-up has cost much and is not yet profitable. Output in Q3 2026 was less than expected because of yield losses, and the company still has capital to spend on the second CASH line and a slab center. New domestic steel and aluminum capacity may enter the market in the coming years, as the company says. More supply can lower prices and spreads. Trade rules can change. The company says that recent trade actions lowered imports of coated flat-rolled steel. A change in these rules would change prices. A new Chief Executive Officer takes over on January 1, 2027, together with several new senior leaders in operations. A mistake in capital plans or operations would cost money.
- Balance sheet
- added: Cash: $929M Debt: $4.2B Net debt: $3.3B Undrawn credit line: $1.2B, to July 2028 Debt due within 12 months: $21M At September 30, 2026, Steel Dynamics had cash of $928.6 million and debt of $4,203.9 million, of which $20.9 million falls due within 12 months. Total debt of $4.2 billion was unchanged from December 31, 2025. Long-term debt was 30% of capitalization, against 32% at the end of 2025. The company has a $1.2 billion revolver that matures in July 2028, and liquidity was $2.4 billion. In nine months, cash flow from operations was $1.4 billion, capital investments were $411.4 million, dividends were $225 million and share buybacks were $591 million. Interest expense was $111.7 million in nine months, up 159%. As of Sep 30, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- added: Jan 26, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results: steel spreads and aluminum. Pending. Watch: Steel shipments and prices stay near Q3 2026 levels and the aluminum loss gets smaller again, and this passes; lower prices or a bigger aluminum loss fail. Apr 2027 (estimate): Q1 2027 results: second CASH line. Pending. Watch: The second CASH line runs in Q1 2027 and aluminum earns a positive operating income, and this passes; another delay fails.
- Recent events
- added: Nov 9, 2026: Steel Dynamics added a $3.0 billion share repurchase authorization, on top of $216 million left on its earlier program at September 30, 2026. It also declared a quarterly dividend of $0.53 per share, payable on or about January 8, 2027. Oct 23, 2026: In its Q3 10-Q, Steel Dynamics said that its debt of $4.2 billion was unchanged from December 31, 2025, and that cash was $928.6 million. It had 142,217,487 shares outstanding at October 21, 2026. Oct 19, 2026: Steel Dynamics reported Q3 2026 results. Net sales were $6.5 billion, operating income was $1.0 billion, net income was $756 million, and adjusted EBITDA was $1.2 billion. Cash flow from operations was $846 million. The company bought back $276 million of shares. Oct 19, 2026: Steel Dynamics said that its aluminum business had an operating loss of $26 million in Q3 2026, 21% less than in Q2, and was at EBITDA breakeven. All three cold mills run. The first CASH line runs, and the second line should start early in Q1 2027. Aug 3, 2026: Steel Dynamics said that Mark Millett will retire as Chief Executive Officer on January 1, 2027, and become Executive Chairman. Theresa Wagler, the Chief Financial Officer, will become President and Chief Executive Officer.