SPGI changes

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View the full Oct 31, 2026 version

Price: $429.64 → $475.11(+10.6%)
Discount category: Below intrinsic value → Close to intrinsic value
Next earnings: Oct 27, 2026 → Jan 27, 2027
Next earnings is estimate: No → Yes
Thesis: Some investors think that the recent growth of S&P Global is unusually high and will not last. removed: In added: Ratings revenue grew 17% in the second quarter of 2026, removed: Ratings revenue grew 17%. Management added: and management said that much of this growth came from debt for AI data centers and from merger financing. added: In the third quarter of 2026, Ratings revenue grew only 2%, against a strong third quarter of 2025. This kind of issuance can slow when AI spending slows. Other investors think that private lenders will stop using public credit ratings as private credit grows. removed: S&P Global answers this worry with growth in private markets: in the second quarter of 2026, Ratings revenue from private markets grew 60%. The Indices business gives a second source of removed: growth. ETFs added: growth that removed: track S&P indices held $6.35 trillion at June 30, added: depends less on bond issuance. Indices revenue grew 20% in the third quarter of 2026, and removed: Indices added: its fees removed: move with added: from fund assets added: grew 24%. On October 27, 2026, S&P Global raised its 2026 guidance for adjusted EPS because it expects more removed: than with bond issuance. added: revenue from Ratings and Indices. It also started a strategic review of Capital IQ and associated data businesses, which can lead to a separation. For the gap to close, removed: debt issuance by hyperscalers, the largest cloud computing companies, added: Ratings revenue must removed: stay near the $250 to $300 billion that management assumes for 2026. Private added: grow again in 2027 from a high 2026 base, and private credit deals must removed: also continue to use public ratings. added: Indices must keep its growth from fund assets. The removed: third added: Capital IQ review must end with a result that adds value and does not distract management. The fourth quarter results removed: on October 27, 2026 and the removed: issuance data through the end of 2026 will show if the 2026 growth was a temporary peak added: 2027 guidance, expected in late January or removed: a lasting change. added: February 2027, are the next main test. If issuance stays high and removed: private credit continues to use ratings, added: Indices keeps growing, the gap can close over the next two to four quarters. If AI debt issuance falls sharply, growth can go back to its usual rate.
Risks: Much of the recent growth in Ratings comes from debt for AI data centers. On the Q2 2026 call, management increased its assumption for hyperscaler debt issuance in 2026 from about $200 billion to $250 to $300 billion. If AI infrastructure spending slows, this issuance and Ratings revenue can fall sharply. S&P Global plans to increase its debt for a time to buy back more than $7 billion of shares in 2026. Reports of the Q2 earnings call said management expects gross leverage of 2.7 to 2.8 times EBITDA at the end of 2026. This is above the company's normal target of 2.0 to 2.5 times, and management expects to be in that range again by the end of 2027. S&P Global Ratings research said private credit lenders gave about $146 billion in 2025 to borrowers rated B- and below. Broadly syndicated loans gave about $85 billion to the same group. Many private credit deals do not need a public credit rating, which can limit the market for Ratings over time. S&P Global added: started a strategic review of Capital IQ and associated data businesses on October 27, 2026. A separation can take management time, add one-time costs and leave the remaining Market Intelligence business smaller. The review has no timeline and may not lead to a transaction. S&P Global completed the spin-off of its Mobility division in July 2026. The remaining company now has less revenue diversification and must absorb the standalone costs of operating without that business.
Balance sheet: Cash: removed: $4.1B added: $2.4B Debt: removed: $15.2B added: $13.1B Net debt: removed: $11.1B added: $10.6B Interest cover: 24× Undrawn credit line: $2.0B, to December 2029 added: Debt due within 12 months: $2.4B Last debt due: 2062 Ratings: Moody's A3 (stable outlook) S&P Global funds itself with cash from its ratings, index and data businesses, and with unsecured notes that the parent company issues and its ratings subsidiary guarantees. removed: Management plans buybacks of more than $7 billion in 2026 and expects leverage to rise above its target before it falls in 2027. At removed: June added: September 30, 2026, debt removed: of $15.2 billion was removed: fixed-rate notes due from 2027, plus $825 million added: $13.1 billion: $2.4 billion of removed: commercial paper. Notes of $1.7 added: short-term debt and $10.6 billion removed: are due in 2027. Of this debt, $2.0 billion was added: of long-term debt. The Mobility Global removed: notes, which added: notes left with Mobility at the July 1, 2026 removed: spin-off. Without them, debt was about $13.2 billion. At the spin-off, added: and Mobility paid S&P Global a net cash distribution of $1.97 removed: billion, added: billion. Cash, cash equivalents and removed: S&P Global kept it. added: restricted cash was $2.4 billion. Interest cover is removed: first half 2026 operating profit plus depreciation and amortization added: for the first nine months of removed: $4.4 billion added: 2026, $6.3 billion, over net interest expense of removed: $182 added: $267 million. This profit includes removed: a gain added: gains of removed: $186 added: $386 million from removed: a sale added: sales. In the first nine months of 2026, free cash flow was $3.3 billion and added: share buybacks used $4.1 billion of cash. The company still expects buybacks of more than $7 billion in 2026, so debt or cash use must rise in the removed: profit added: fourth quarter. Reports of removed: Mobility. added: the Q2 earnings call said that management expects gross leverage of 2.7 to 2.8 times EBITDA at the end of 2026, above its 2.0 to 2.5 times target. The undrawn $2.0 billion credit line backs the commercial paper and ends on December 17, removed: 2029. added: 2029, per the June 30, 2026 10-Q. Moody's last affirmed its rating in 2022, after the IHS Markit merger. The balance sheet also carries removed: $5.0 added: $5.3 billion of redeemable noncontrolling interest for CME Group's 27% share of S&P Dow Jones Indices. At any time, CME can make S&P Global buy at least 20% of that share at fair value. CME can make S&P Global buy all of it after a change of control. This is a possible cash call that does not show as debt. removed: Until October 5, 2026, S&P Global filed no new note issue and no new buyback agreement after June 30. The buyback plan is about five times the $1.5 billion bought in the first half. Reports of the Q2 earnings call said management expects to borrow about $2 billion more to pay for the buybacks. The same reports said management expects gross leverage of 2.7 to 2.8 times EBITDA at year end, above its 2.0 to 2.5 times target. As of removed: Jun added: Sep 30, 2026.
Checkpoints: Oct 27, 2026: Q3 2026 earnings: Ratings growth and AI debt issuance. removed: Pending. added: Passed. Watch: Ratings revenue growth that stays strong with hyperscaler issuance near the $250 to $300 billion forecast pass; a sharp drop in issuance-driven revenue fails. removed: Feb added: Outcome: Ratings revenue grew only 2% against a strong prior year, but it did not drop, and S&P Global raised its 2026 revenue and adjusted EPS guidance because of higher expected Ratings and Indices revenue. Jan 27, 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: 2027 guidance for Ratings growth above its historical pace and leverage on a path back to 2.0 to 2.5 times pass; guidance that assumes a fall in issuance fails. Apr 2027 (estimate): Q1 2027 earnings: private credit ratings and Indices flows. Pending. Watch: Growth in private credit ratings and in Indices fees from ETF assets pass; a fall in Ratings revenue as private lenders skip public ratings fails.
Recent events: Oct added: 27, 2026: S&P Global reported third quarter 2026 revenue of $3.678 billion, up 7%, without Mobility. Adjusted diluted EPS grew 9% to $4.58. GAAP diluted EPS grew 26% to $4.45 and included a gain from a sale in Energy. Ratings revenue grew 2% to $1,271 million, and Indices revenue grew 20% to $554 million. The company raised its 2026 guidance for adjusted diluted EPS to $17.70 to $17.95, from $17.50 to $17.75. It bought back $2.6 billion of shares in the quarter and still expects buybacks of more than $7 billion in 2026. Oct 27, 2026: S&P Global started a strategic review of Capital IQ and associated data businesses, which are the majority of Kensho Data & Platforms in Market Intelligence. The review can lead to a separation. The company expects to keep RatingsDirect, RatingsXpress and Enterprise Solutions. It gave no timeline and said that the review may not lead to a transaction. Oct 9, 2026: S&P Global named Thomas Kim as Chief Legal Officer from October 19, 2026. He was Chief Legal Officer at Gartner and at Thomson Reuters. He reports to CEO Martina Cheung and leads Legal, Government Affairs, Risk and Compliance. He replaces Steve Kemps, who retires and stays as an advisor until December 31, 2026. Sep 29, 2026: Cboe and S&P Dow Jones Indices signed a 25-year extension of their exclusive license for S&P 500 index options, through 2051. Sep 17, 2026: S&P Global agreed to buy OpenZeppelin, a company that secures onchain (blockchain) finance code. Terms were not disclosed, and the deal is not expected to have a material financial impact. OpenZeppelin will operate under its own name inside S&P Global Ratings. Sep 14, 2026: S&P Global, through S&P Global Ventures, led an investment that increased the Series B round of digital-asset data company Kaiko to $110 million. The investment is part of a wider partnership between the two companies. Sep 1, 2026: Bloomberg reported that S&P Global is at an early stage of a study to spin off Capital IQ Pro, its main data platform. People familiar with the plan said the unit can have a value of high single-digit billions of dollars. S&P Global did not announce a plan, and it can decide not to do it. Jul 28, 2026: S&P Global reported second quarter revenue of $4.15 billion, up 10%. This figure includes Mobility. Without Mobility, revenue grew 11%, and adjusted earnings per share grew 23% to $4.83. Ratings revenue grew 17%, and Indices revenue grew 20%. The company kept its plan to buy back more than $7 billion of shares in 2026. Jul 1, 2026: S&P Global completed the spin-off of Mobility Global Inc., which began trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker MBGL. May 20, 2026: The board of S&P Global approved a plan to spin off the Mobility division into an independent public company.