SPGI changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Thesis
- Some investors removed: see S&P Global's added: think that the recent growth removed: as added: of S&P Global is unusually removed: good added: high and removed: unlikely to added: will not last. added: In the second quarter of 2026, Ratings revenue removed: jumped 17% last quarter, largely on a surge added: grew 17%. Management said that much of added: this growth came from debt for AI data removed: center debt added: centers and added: from merger financing. removed: That is a source added: This kind of issuance removed: that can slow when AI spending removed: cools. added: slows. Other investors removed: worry added: think that private lenders will removed: skip added: stop using public credit ratings removed: altogether as private credit removed: keeps growing. added: grows. S&P Global removed: has answered the second added: answers this worry removed: by doubling its added: with growth in private removed: credit ratings coverage since 2021. It has also expanded further into new areas. These include a September 2026 deal to buy OpenZeppelin, which rates added: markets: in the removed: security added: second quarter of removed: onchain (blockchain) finance code, and an expanded data alliance with Kaiko. added: 2026, Ratings revenue from private markets grew 60%. The Indices removed: business, tied to a record $6.35 trillion in ETF assets, added: business gives a second removed: growth engine added: source of growth. ETFs that removed: moves added: track S&P indices held $6.35 trillion at June 30, 2026, and Indices fees move with fund removed: flows rather added: assets more than removed: the bond-market cycle. This offsets a slowdown in Ratings. added: with bond issuance. For the removed: discount added: gap to close, removed: bond added: debt issuance removed: tied to added: by hyperscalers, the largest cloud computing removed: providers, needs to keep coming in added: companies, must stay near removed: management's $250-300 added: the $250 to $300 billion removed: forecast added: that management assumes for removed: the year. added: 2026. Private credit deals added: must also removed: need added: continue to removed: keep needing added: use public removed: ratings rather than bypassing them. added: ratings. The removed: next quarterly results, due added: third quarter results on October 27, removed: 2026, will help show this. So will full-year added: 2026 and the issuance data through removed: year end, which together added: the end of 2026 will show removed: whether 2026's added: if the 2026 growth was a temporary removed: AI-driven spike added: peak or a removed: durable shift. added: lasting change. If issuance removed: holds up added: stays high and private credit removed: keeps needing added: continues to use ratings, the gap can close over the next two to four quarters. If removed: AI-related added: AI debt issuance removed: slows added: falls sharply, growth removed: could cool added: can go back removed: toward added: to its removed: more normal historical pace. added: usual rate.
- Risks
- Much of removed: Ratings' added: the recent growth added: in Ratings comes from removed: a surge in added: debt for AI data removed: center debt issuance. Management raised added: centers. On the Q2 2026 call, management increased its removed: forecast added: assumption for removed: hyperscaler-related added: hyperscaler debt issuance removed: to $250-300 billion for the year. A slowdown in added: 2026 from about $200 billion to $250 to $300 billion. If AI infrastructure spending removed: could sharply reduce added: slows, this removed: bond issuance and removed: hurt Ratings removed: revenue. added: revenue can fall sharply. S&P Global plans to removed: raise leverage temporarily to fund added: increase its debt for a added: time to buy back more than $7 billion removed: share buyback added: of shares in 2026. Reports of the Q2 earnings call said management expects gross leverage of removed: 2.7-2.8 added: 2.7 to 2.8 times EBITDA removed: by year end. added: at the end of 2026. This is above the company's normal removed: 2.0-2.5 times target removed: range. Private added: of 2.0 to 2.5 times, and management expects to be in that range again by the end of 2027. S&P Global Ratings research said private credit lenders removed: funded nearly added: gave about $146 billion removed: of below-investment-grade debt in removed: 2025, more than the amount funded through broadly added: 2025 to borrowers rated B- and below. Broadly syndicated removed: loans. added: loans gave about $85 billion to the same group. Many private credit deals do not removed: require added: need a removed: traditional public credit rating, which removed: could added: can limit removed: Ratings' addressable added: the market added: for Ratings over time. S&P Global completed the spin-off of its Mobility division in July 2026. The remaining company now has less revenue diversification and must absorb the standalone costs of operating without that business.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $4.1B Debt: $15.2B Net debt: $11.1B Interest cover: 24× Undrawn credit line: $2.0B, to December 2029 Last debt due: 2062 Ratings: Moody's A3 (stable outlook) S&P Global funds itself with cash from its ratings, index and data businesses, and with unsecured notes that the parent company issues and its ratings subsidiary guarantees. Management plans buybacks of more than $7 billion in 2026 and expects leverage to rise above its target before it falls in 2027. At June 30, 2026, debt added: of $15.2 billion was removed: mostly fixed-rate notes due from 2027, plus $825 million of commercial paper. removed: But $2.0 billion added: Notes of added: $1.7 billion are due in 2027. Of this removed: debt added: debt, $2.0 billion was Mobility Global notes, which left with Mobility at the July 1, 2026 spin-off. removed: Before added: Without them, debt was about $13.2 billion. At the spin-off, Mobility paid S&P Global a removed: dividend added: net cash distribution of removed: about $2 added: $1.97 billion, and S&P Global kept it. Interest cover is first half 2026 operating profit plus depreciation and amortization of $4.4 billion over net interest expense of $182 million. added: This profit includes a gain of $186 million from a sale and the profit of Mobility. The undrawn added: $2.0 billion credit line backs the commercial removed: paper. added: paper and ends on December 17, 2029. Moody's last affirmed its rating in 2022, after the IHS Markit merger. The balance sheet also carries $5.0 billion of redeemable noncontrolling interest for CME Group's 27% share of S&P Dow Jones Indices. added: At any time, CME can removed: at any time make S&P Global buy removed: part added: at least 20% of that share at fair value. added: CME can make S&P Global buy all of it after a change of control. This is a possible cash call that does not show as debt. added: Until October 5, 2026, S&P Global filed no new note issue and no new buyback agreement after June 30. The buyback plan is about five times the $1.5 billion bought in the first half. Reports of the Q2 earnings call said management expects to borrow about $2 billion more to pay for the buybacks. The same reports said management expects gross leverage of 2.7 to 2.8 times EBITDA at year end, above its 2.0 to 2.5 times target. As of Jun 30, 2026.
- Recent events
- Sep 29, 2026: Cboe and S&P Dow Jones Indices signed a 25-year extension of their exclusive license for S&P 500 index options, through 2051. Sep 17, 2026: S&P Global agreed to buy OpenZeppelin, a company that secures onchain (blockchain) finance code. Terms were not disclosed, and the deal is not expected to have a material financial impact. OpenZeppelin removed: keeps operating added: will operate under its own name inside S&P Global Ratings. Sep removed: 11, added: 14, 2026: S&P added: Global, through S&P Global removed: expanded its strategic alliance with added: Ventures, led an investment that increased the Series B round of digital-asset data removed: firm Kaiko. added: company Kaiko to $110 million. The investment is part of a wider partnership between the two companies. Sep 1, 2026: Bloomberg reported that S&P Global is at an early stage of a study to spin off Capital IQ Pro, its main data platform. People familiar with the plan said the unit can have a value of high single-digit billions of dollars. S&P Global did not announce a plan, and it can decide not to do it. Jul 28, 2026: S&P Global reported second quarter revenue of $4.15 billion, up 10%. added: This figure includes Mobility. Without Mobility, revenue grew 11%, and adjusted earnings per share grew 23% to $4.83. Ratings revenue grew 17%, and Indices revenue grew 20%. added: The company kept its plan to buy back more than $7 billion of shares in 2026. Jul 1, 2026: S&P Global completed the spin-off of Mobility Global Inc., which began trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker MBGL. May 20, 2026: The board of S&P Global approved a plan to spin off the Mobility division into an independent public company.