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View the full Nov 12, 2026 version

Price: $64.52
Discount category: Close to intrinsic value
Intrinsic value source: AI estimate
Next earnings: Feb 4, 2027
Next earnings is estimate: Yes
Company name: added: Shinhan Financial Group
Sector: added: Banking and financial holding company
About: added: Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd. (Shinhan) is a financial holding company in Seoul, South Korea. Its main subsidiaries are Shinhan Bank, Shinhan Card, Shinhan Securities and Shinhan Life Insurance. Shinhan Bank earned KRW 3,684 billion of the KRW 5,027 billion of net income of the group for nine months of 2026. Shinhan Card earned KRW 486 billion and Shinhan Life earned KRW 419 billion. Shinhan reports in Korean won and files 20-F and 6-K reports. The pick is an American depositary share (ADS). The 2025 Form 20-F says that Citibank, N.A. is the depositary and that each ADS represents one share of common stock. The group had 462,911,723 shares outstanding on October 26, 2026 (6-K, October 27, 2026).
Thesis: added: The price of Shinhan depends on whether the bank can lift its return on equity to its target while it returns more capital to shareholders. In 2025, return on equity was 9.11%, and Shinhan returned 50.2% of its profit to shareholders. The value-up plan, which the board adopted in restructured form on April 23, 2026, sets 2027 as the target year for a return on equity of 10% or more, a shareholder return ratio of 50% or more, a CET1 ratio of 13% or more, and a cut of 50 million in the number of issued shares. Net income to shareholders of the group rose 12.7% to KRW 5,027 billion for nine months of 2026. On October 27, 2026, the board approved a buyback of KRW 450 billion until January 26, 2027, to cancel the shares, and a quarterly dividend of KRW 740 per share. For the price to hold or rise, three things must be true. The return on equity must reach 10% in 2027. Card and insurance profit must stop falling. The capital ratio must stay above 13% while Shinhan buys back shares. The Q4 2026 report in February 2027 is the next test. These 3Q 2026 figures are preliminary, and the auditor has not yet reviewed them.
Valuation: added: The intrinsic value for Shinhan Financial Group is an AI estimate from November 12, 2026. It is not an analyst's value. An AI research agent calculated it from the filings of Shinhan with the SEC. Shinhan is a bank holding company, so the estimate values it on earnings and checks the result against book value. The pick is the American depositary share (ADS). The 2025 annual report on Form 20-F (filed April 22, 2026) says that each ADS represents one share of common stock. This ratio is in the text of the 20-F, and its cover gives only the 477,157,399 shares outstanding at December 31, 2025. Shinhan reports in Korean won. The method is a multiple of earnings per share for 2027, converted to US dollars. The 6-K of October 27, 2026 gives preliminary net income to controlling interest of KRW 5,027,358 million for nine months of 2026, KRW 1,584,629 million for Q3 and KRW 1,820,135 million for Q2. The auditor has not yet reviewed these figures. The dividend 6-K of the same date gives 462,911,723 shares outstanding on October 26, 2026, and the buyback 6-K gives a plan to buy 5,263,157 shares for KRW 450,000 million until January 26, 2027. The estimate uses 457,648,566 shares, which is 462,911,723 less 5,263,157. The 20-F gives hybrid bonds of KRW 4,749,837 million at December 31, 2025, and the estimate deducts coupons of KRW 250,000 million a year from earnings, which is an assumption. The 6-K of August 14, 2026 gives a return on equity of 9.11% for 2025 and a target of 10% or more. The estimate takes net income for 2026 as about KRW 6,600,000 million, which is nine months plus KRW 1,600,000 million for Q4, an assumption. The 2027 net income and the multiples are assumptions. The low case assumes net income of KRW 5,900,000 million, which is earnings per share of KRW 12,346, at 5.5 times. It gives KRW 67,901, or $50.90 per ADS. The base case assumes KRW 6,600,000 million, which is KRW 13,875 per share, at 7 times. It gives KRW 97,127, or $72.80 per ADS. The high case assumes KRW 7,200,000 million, which is KRW 15,186 per share, at 8.5 times. It gives KRW 129,084, or $96.76 per ADS. The estimate converts won at 1,334.10 per US dollar, which is the won and dollar reference rates per euro of the European Central Bank on November 12, 2026 (1,478.32 and 1.1081). The use of this rate for the future is an assumption. As a check, common equity at December 31, 2025 was KRW 53,209,435 million (equity of KRW 57,959,272 million less hybrid bonds), or KRW 111,513 per share on 477,157,399 shares, so the base case is about 0.87 times book value. The estimate assumes weights of 25%, 50% and 25%. The weighted intrinsic value is $73.31 per ADS. As of Nov 12, 2026.
Risks: added: Earnings depend on the bank and on the Korean economy. Shinhan Bank earned KRW 3,684 billion of the KRW 5,027 billion of group net income in nine months of 2026. Credit costs and lending margins in Korea set most of the result. Card and insurance profit are falling. For nine months, operating income was down 7.4% at Shinhan Card and 17.0% at Shinhan Life. In Q3 2026, operating income at Shinhan Card was down 27.2% from a year earlier. Buybacks and dividends use capital. The buyback of KRW 450 billion and the dividend must fit inside the capital ratio target of 13% or more for CET1. Tension with North Korea can hurt Korean markets, the won, and the price of the shares and ADSs. The 20-F lists this as a risk. The ADS price is in US dollars and the results are in won, so changes in the won change the value of the ADS.
Balance sheet: added: At June 30, 2026, the consolidated BIS capital ratio of the group was 15.74%. Equity capital was KRW 57,872 billion against risk-weighted assets of KRW 367,596 billion. The group has said that its CET1 ratio stayed above 13% in 2025. At December 31, 2025, total equity was KRW 60,372 billion, of which KRW 57,959 billion belongs to shareholders of the group. Hybrid bonds of KRW 4,750 billion are in this amount, so common equity was KRW 53,209 billion. A bank funds itself with deposits, so a cash and debt view does not apply. As of Jun 30, 2026.
Checkpoints: added: Jan 26, 2027: End of the KRW 450 billion buyback. Pending. Watch: Shinhan completes the buyback by January 26, 2027 and the CET1 ratio stays above 13%, and this passes; an early stop or a lower capital ratio fails. Feb 4, 2027 (estimate): Full year 2026 results and the 2027 return plan. Pending. Watch: Return on equity for 2026 is near 10% and the dividend and buyback plan for 2027 keeps the shareholder return ratio at 50% or more, and this passes; a lower return on equity fails.
Recent events: added: Oct 27, 2026: Shinhan reported preliminary 3Q 2026 results. Net income to shareholders of the group was KRW 1,585 billion, up 11.3% from a year earlier and down 12.9% from Q2. For nine months, it was KRW 5,027 billion, up 12.7%. The auditor has not yet reviewed these figures. Oct 27, 2026: The board of Shinhan approved a buyback of 5,263,157 common shares, for KRW 450 billion, from October 28, 2026 to January 26, 2027. It plans to cancel the shares. Shinhan held 6,538,515 treasury shares on October 27, 2026, which it also plans to cancel. Oct 27, 2026: The board of Shinhan resolved to pay a quarterly cash dividend of KRW 740 per share, about KRW 342.6 billion, with a record date of November 3, 2026 and a payment date of November 27, 2026. Aug 14, 2026: Shinhan reported its first half results. Its 6-K describes the value-up plan that the board adopted on April 23, 2026. The plan has targets for 2027 of a return on equity of 10% or more, a shareholder return ratio of 50% or more, and a CET1 ratio of 13% or more. The BIS capital ratio of the group was 15.74% at June 30, 2026. Apr 22, 2026: Shinhan filed its annual report for 2025 on Form 20-F. Net income for 2025 was KRW 4.97 trillion, up 11.7%, and return on equity was 9.1%.