SAP changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $213.66 → $210.68(−1.4%)
- Discount category
- Well below intrinsic value → Far below intrinsic value
- Thesis
- removed: The stock fell hard in early 2026 on added: Investors fear that AI agents will added: let companies cut removed: software seat counts, since added: the paid user seats SAP's cloud removed: product added: software is priced removed: per user. But SAP also earns revenue that is not priced per user: software support, and added: around. This fear drove a removed: licensing model that charges per document created, added: sharp SAP selloff in early 2026. That happened even removed: a document created by an AI agent. In added: as SAP's April removed: 2026, SAP also tightened its added: 2026 API removed: rules. An added: policy pushed outside AI removed: agent can no longer plan and run its own sequence of calls against SAP data. It must go through added: agents toward SAP's own Business Data Cloud or removed: Joule instead. This routes AI-driven use of added: Joule. The policy discourages those agents from running their own calls against SAP removed: data through paths added: data. The gap can close if SAP removed: controls added: keeps posting strong cloud growth without leaning only on seat count. In the second quarter of 2026, cloud revenue grew 24% at constant currency and removed: can charge for, which strengthens the removed: case that AI agents extend SAP's moat rather than replace it. The market may have over-reacted to added: cloud backlog grew 26%. That is evidence growth had not yet slowed the added: way the seat-count removed: fear. added: fear implies. The removed: discount can close if added: new API policy still faces pushback from DSAG, the largest SAP removed: shows steady added: user group, over unclear terms. So the routing strategy is not yet proven and could draw more customer or regulatory pushback instead of new revenue. In 2027, many legacy on-premises customers must decide whether to move to the new cloud removed: growth in future quarters. added: product. That decision will show whether the lock-in argument holds up. The next check comes at Q3 2026 earnings on October 21, 2026. A fuller picture is likely over the next two to four quarters, as the API policy and the 2027 upgrade cycle play out.
- Recent events
- added: Jul 23, 2026: SAP reported Q2 2026 results. Cloud revenue was €6.281 billion, up 24% at constant currency, and the current cloud backlog reached €22.929 billion, up 26%. Non-IFRS operating profit missed estimates, and SAP trimmed its full-year operating profit outlook to reflect the dilutive cost of its Dremio and Prior Labs acquisitions, while keeping its cloud and total revenue guidance unchanged. May 1, 2026: SAP and Anthropic announced that Claude now powers reasoning inside Joule, SAP's AI assistant, as part of the new SAP Business AI Platform. Apr 29, 2026: SAP published a new API policy. It blocks outside AI agents from planning and running their own sequence of calls against SAP data. Agents must now go through SAP's own Business Data Cloud or Joule instead. The user group DSAG publicly criticized the policy for unclear terms and an unclear list of covered APIs. Feb 1, 2026: SAP stock fell to €162.10, the lowest price since February 2024. Software stocks fell broadly across this period. Jan 29, 2026: SAP stock fell about 15% in one day. The market reacted to weak cloud growth guidance for 2026. Jul 1, 2025: SAP began to bundle AI usage, called AI Units, into its cloud contracts. This is a new way to price AI agent work, separate from the per-user price.