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View the full Nov 12, 2026 version

Price: $59.43
Discount category: Far above intrinsic value
Intrinsic value source: AI estimate
Next earnings: Jan 25, 2027
Next earnings is estimate: Yes
Company name: added: Ryanair
Sector: added: Low-cost airline
About: added: Ryanair Holdings plc (Ryanair) is the parent of Buzz, Lauda, Malta Air, Ryanair and Ryanair UK, a group of low-fare airlines in Europe. It is based in Dublin, Ireland. In the year that ended March 31, 2026 (fiscal 2026), the group carried 208.4 million passengers, with revenue of €15.54 billion and profit after tax of €2.17 billion. It flies about 3,800 flights a day from 95 bases to almost 220 airports in 34 countries. Its fleet is almost 650 aircraft, and it has 300 new Boeing 737 aircraft on order. About 35,000 people work for the group. Revenue comes from scheduled fares and from ancillary sales such as bags and seats. Ancillary revenue was €3.08 billion in the first half of fiscal 2027. Michael O'Leary is the Chief Executive Officer. Ryanair files Form 20-F and Form 6-K with the SEC and reports in euros. Its American Depositary Shares trade on Nasdaq in US dollars, and each ADS represents two ordinary shares.
Thesis: added: The price of Ryanair depends on whether fares can rise enough in fiscal 2028 to pay for a much higher fuel bill. In the first half of fiscal 2027, profit after tax fell 15% to €2.15 billion, because the price of unhedged jet fuel doubled and the average fare fell 4%, while traffic grew 6%. The company hedged 80% of its fuel for fiscal 2027 at about $67 per barrel. It hedged only 25% of fiscal 2028 at about $95 per barrel, and it expects a fuel bill for fiscal 2028 that is about €2 billion higher at current forward prices. It says that fares will probably rise, because other airlines face the same costs and seats are scarce, but that this is unlikely to pay for the full increase. For the price to hold or rise, three things must be true. Fares must rise with the cost of fuel in 2027. The first 16 Boeing MAX-10 aircraft, due in spring 2027, must arrive on time and lower the cost per seat. The company must also find savings in airport charges, pay and crewing. The balance sheet gives room, because the company repaid its last bond in May 2026 and has net cash of €2.0 billion. The next tests are the Q3 report, expected in early 2027, and the full-year report, expected in May 2027, which should give the first view of fiscal 2028.
Valuation: added: The intrinsic value for Ryanair is an AI estimate from November 12, 2026. It is not an analyst's value. An AI research agent calculated it from the filings of Ryanair Holdings with the SEC. Ryanair files Form 20-F and Form 6-K, and it reports in euros under IFRS. The pick is the American Depositary Share (ADS) that trades on Nasdaq in US dollars. The Form 20-F for the year ended March 31, 2026 (filed June 22, 2026) states on its cover that each ADS represents two ordinary shares. The estimate therefore multiplies each euro value per ordinary share by two. The method is a multiple of diluted earnings per ordinary share for fiscal 2027, which is the year that ends on March 31, 2027. The estimate adds no net cash, because the earnings already include the interest on cash. The H1 fiscal 2027 release (Form 6-K, November 2, 2026) gives profit after tax of €2,147.6 million for the half-year to September 30, 2026, and, for Q2, 1,037.4 million basic and 1,045.9 million diluted weighted average shares. It gives gross cash of €2.6 billion and net cash of €2.0 billion. It says that 80% of the fuel for fiscal 2027 is hedged at about $67 per barrel, that fiscal 2028 is 25% covered at about $95 per barrel, and that traffic for fiscal 2027 should be about 214 million passengers. It gives no profit guidance for fiscal 2027 and says that the company has zero visibility for Q4. It expects a fuel bill for fiscal 2028 that is about €2 billion higher at current forward prices. The statement of changes in equity in the same release shows a loss of €365.1 million for the second half of fiscal 2026. The Form 6-K on total voting rights gives 1,035,847,831 ordinary shares in issue at October 31, 2026, with none held in treasury. The estimate adds 8.5 million shares of dilution, which is the difference between the diluted and basic shares of Q2, for 1,044.35 million shares. It leaves out the effect of the buyback of €800 million that starts in February 2027. The profit for the second half of fiscal 2027 and the multiples are assumptions. The multiples are lower than for an airline with no fuel exposure, because the fuel bill for fiscal 2028 is much higher. The low case assumes a loss of €900 million for the second half, because fares fall and the price of unhedged fuel stays high. Profit after tax is €1,247.6 million and EPS is €1.19. At 9 times it gives €10.75 per ordinary share. The base case assumes a loss of €450 million, which is a little more than the loss of the second half of fiscal 2026. Profit is €1,697.6 million and EPS is €1.63. At 11 times it gives €17.88. The high case assumes a loss of €150 million, because fares rise above the level of last year. Profit is €1,997.6 million and EPS is €1.91. At 13 times it gives €24.87. The estimate converts euros to US dollars at 1.1081 dollars per euro, the euro foreign exchange reference rate of the European Central Bank for November 12, 2026, and multiplies by two. This gives $23.83, $39.63 and $55.11 per ADS. The estimate assumes weights of 25%, 50% and 25%. The weighted intrinsic value is $39.55 per ADS. As of Nov 12, 2026.
Risks: added: The cost of jet fuel in fiscal 2028 can hurt profit. Only 25% of the fuel for fiscal 2028 is hedged at about $95 per barrel, and the company expects a bill about €2 billion higher at current forward prices. Fares may not rise enough to pay for it. Fares and demand can fall. The average fare fell 4% in the first half, and customers now book closer to the flight date, so the company has no visibility for Q4. War in the Middle East and Ukraine, and strikes of air traffic control, can hurt demand and cost. Aircraft can arrive late. The first 16 Boeing MAX-10 aircraft are due in spring 2027, and EASA must still certify the type. A delay would cut growth and the saving in cost per seat. Costs outside the control of the company keep rising. Environmental taxes of the EU rose by €300 million this year, pay rose under new multi-year labor agreements, and airport and air traffic control charges rose. The company moves traffic away from high-tax markets such as Austria, Germany and regional Spain. Ownership rules limit who can hold the shares. EU rules require an EU airline to be majority-owned and effectively controlled by EU nationals. EU nationals held 30% of the share capital at September 30, 2026, and the company has not allowed new deposits of shares for ADSs since June 2001.
Balance sheet: added: At September 30, 2026, Ryanair had gross cash of €2.6 billion and net cash of €2.0 billion. At March 31, 2026, gross cash was €3.6 billion and net cash was €2.1 billion. Cash and cash equivalents were €2,518.1 million. Debt was €438.4 million, all of it non-current. In the half-year, the company repaid €1.3 billion of debt, including its last bond of €1.2 billion in May, and it drew €400 million of its revolving credit facility in September. The facility is €1.1 billion, and about €0.7 billion is undrawn. Lease liabilities were €142.0 million. The company has an unencumbered fleet of 620 Boeing 737 aircraft. Shareholders' equity was €11.62 billion. In the half-year, the company returned €0.4 billion to shareholders, and in September it completed a buyback of €750 million. Another buyback of €800 million starts in February 2027. The company describes its credit rating as BBB+. As of Sep 30, 2026.
Checkpoints: added: Jan 25, 2027 (estimate): Q3 fiscal 2027 results: fares and fuel. Pending. Watch: Average fares in Q3 are ahead of the same quarter a year before, as the company says they are trending, and this passes; lower fares fail. May 2027 (estimate): Fiscal 2027 results and the first view of fiscal 2028. Pending. Watch: Fuel for fiscal 2028 is hedged at more than 25% at prices near the current level, and the company shows that fares rise with fuel cost, and this passes; a fuel bill that fares do not cover fails. Q2 2027 (estimate): First Boeing MAX-10 deliveries. Pending. Watch: EASA certifies the MAX-10 and the first 16 aircraft arrive in spring 2027, and this passes; a delay fails.
Recent events: added: Nov 3, 2026: Ryanair said that traffic in October 2026 grew 1% to 19.4 million passengers, with a load factor of 93%. Traffic in the 12 months to October was 215.4 million passengers, up 5%. Nov 2, 2026: Ryanair reported results for the first half of fiscal 2027. Revenue rose 3% to €10.08 billion, and profit after tax fell 15% to €2.15 billion. The average fare fell 4% to €55.70, and ancillary revenue rose 6% to €3.08 billion. Operating costs rose 10% to €7.69 billion. The company declared an interim dividend of €0.273 per share, payable in February 2027, and a new buyback of €800 million that starts in February 2027. Nov 2, 2026: Ryanair gave no profit guidance for fiscal 2027 and said that it has no visibility for Q4. It cut its traffic target for fiscal 2027 from 216 million to 214 million passengers, so that winter traffic is broadly flat and less fuel is unhedged. It plans traffic of over 220 million passengers next year, with 16 new MAX-10 aircraft. Sep 10, 2026: Shareholders approved all resolutions at the annual general meeting. The vote on the remuneration policy had 61% in favor. May 25, 2026: Ryanair repaid its last bond of €1.2 billion, so the group was effectively free of debt. It has an unencumbered fleet of 620 Boeing 737 aircraft. May 18, 2026: Ryanair reported results for fiscal 2026. Profit after tax before exceptional items was a record €2.26 billion, up 40%, and traffic grew 4% to 208 million passengers.