NVO changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $38.17 → $38.80(+1.7%)
- Thesis
- removed: NVO trades around $38.17, a little below the analysts' intrinsic value. The market removed: is worried added: prices Novo added: at a discount because it fears Novo is losing the obesity-drug race to Eli removed: Lilly: added: Lilly. Lilly's tirzepatide removed: (sold as Zepbound and Mounjaro) beat semaglutide removed: in a head-to-head trial and overtook added: head-to-head. Lilly has already overtaken Novo in ex-US GLP-1 market removed: share in 2026, while added: share, a class of diabetes and weight-loss drugs. Novo's removed: full-year added: own 2026 removed: guidance, even after two upward revisions during the year, added: guidance still points to removed: adjusted sales and removed: operating profit coming in flat to down removed: 6% at constant exchange rates. added: for the year, even after two upward revisions. Generic removed: competition is added: versions of semaglutide are also arriving faster than removed: expected: semaglutide's patent lapsed in added: expected outside the US, with Canada removed: and China in early 2026, and Canada approved its added: approving a first generic removed: version in April 2026. At its September removed: 21, 2026 Capital Markets Day, management guided to removed: 2026-2030 added: 2030 revenue growth only in line with removed: a group of large pharmaceutical peers, not removed: above them, and added: ahead of them. That told the removed: stock fell about 7.7% that day. Why added: market Novo itself expects no better than average industry growth from here. For the gap removed: could still close: new CEO Mike Doustdar is cutting about 9,000 jobs to removed: save roughly $1.3 billion a year, the added: close, two things need to happen together. The Wegovy pill removed: sold about twice what analysts expected in its first full quarter on added: needs to keep growing faster than the removed: market, and added: older injectable franchise shrinks. CagriSema, Novo's removed: next-generation added: next obesity and diabetes drug, added: needs to reach the market and take share back from Lilly. CagriSema already beat removed: Lilly's tirzepatide on weight loss in a removed: Phase 3 head-to-head trial, removed: with added: and an FDA obesity decision added: is due in removed: Q4 2026. Medicare coverage added: the fourth quarter of removed: obesity drugs for some patients, scheduled added: 2026. New CEO Mike Doustdar is also cutting about 9,000 jobs to removed: begin in mid-2026 under added: fund the removed: new US pricing deal, could also expand the market both companies compete for. added: turnaround. If added: the FDA approves CagriSema removed: is approved added: on schedule and removed: the added: its launch goes well alongside continued Wegovy pill removed: keeps growing faster than added: growth, the removed: older injectable Ozempic and Wegovy franchise shrinks, earnings added: gap could removed: re-accelerate and added: start closing over the removed: discount could close. The honest counter-case: Lilly's clinical added: next two to four quarters. Clearer evidence should come by the Q3 2026 report and removed: commercial momentum in obesity has been stronger for more added: into 2027. If Lilly keeps taking share faster than removed: a year, added: Novo can respond, or generic removed: semaglutide could spread added: competition spreads to more removed: markets than expected, and management's added: markets, the discount could persist well beyond 2026. Management's own removed: 2030 targets removed: suggest Novo itself expects no removed: better than average industry growth from here, not added: longer assume a return to removed: its added: Novo's old growth removed: rates. added: rate.