NI changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $42.68 → $44.57(+4.4%)
- Next earnings
- Oct 28, 2026 → Jan 28, 2027
- Next earnings is estimate
- No → Yes
- About
- NiSource is a fully regulated utility holding company. It serves about 3.3 million natural gas customers and 500,000 electric customers in six states under the Columbia Gas and NIPSCO brands. Columbia Gas distributes gas in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Kentucky and Maryland. NIPSCO serves gas and electric customers in northern Indiana. NiSource earns returns on the money it invests in pipes, wires and power plants, as state regulators allow. Through NIPSCO Generation (GenCo), a new unit in which Blackstone Infrastructure holds a minority interest, NiSource builds power plants to serve large data center customers. NIPSCO has special contracts with Amazon Data Services and Alphabet to supply power to their data removed: centers. added: centers, and in October 2026 it signed a contract with Microsoft that still needs regulatory approval.
- Thesis
- The market prices NiSource for the cost of a large new investment program and the risk of its data center strategy. removed: The 2026 to 2030 added: In October 2026, NiSource extended its capital plan removed: is $28.6 billion, added: to $40.0 billion for 2027 to 2033, which includes removed: $7.6 added: $8.0 billion removed: of investments for data centers. removed: Interest added: Net interest expense rose to removed: $391 added: $601 million in the first removed: half added: nine months of 2026 from removed: $272 added: $452 million a year earlier, and debt rose to removed: $17.4 added: $18.3 billion at removed: June added: September 30, 2026. removed: Q2 2026 adjusted EPS fell added: After a change to removed: $0.16 from $0.22 because of higher depreciation and interest expense. NiSource must also find customers for its removed: new generation beyond added: construction plans, GenCo now expects the gas plant for Amazon removed: and Alphabet. added: to start operation in 2030. For the gap to close, three things must be true. NiSource must reach added: the upper half of its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.02 to $2.07 and removed: keep its removed: target added: new 2027 guidance of removed: 9% added: $2.22 to added: $2.30, on the way to its target of 10% removed: annual added: to 11% yearly growth from removed: 2026 added: 2027 to 2033. GenCo must build the plants for removed: Amazon and added: Amazon, Alphabet added: and Microsoft on time and on budget, added: regulators must approve the Microsoft contract, and the contracts must protect existing customers from the costs, as the company says they do. NiSource must keep its investment grade credit ratings while it funds the plan. The removed: Q3 2026 removed: report on October 28, 2026 gives the next test. The 2026 results in removed: February added: early 2027 show whether the company met its guidance. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next two to four quarters. The main reason it may not close is higher interest rates, which raise the cost of the investment plan and make utility shares less attractive.
- Risks
- The data center strategy depends on a few large customers. If Amazon or Alphabet ends a contract or reduces its capacity, or if new plants cost more than planned, NiSource can earn less on its GenCo investments. removed: Interest added: Net interest expense rose removed: 44% added: 33% in the first removed: half added: nine months of 2026. The large capital plan needs new debt and equity. Higher rates increase costs and can make it harder to keep investment grade ratings. State regulators set rates and returns in six states. A rate case with a lower return or a delay in cost recovery reduces earnings growth. Gas utilities can have pipeline safety incidents, and weather affects gas demand. removed: Warm added: Weather affects gas demand, and severe weather removed: reduced revenue in added: can damage the removed: first half of 2026, net of the normalization mechanisms. added: systems, as it did in 2026.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: removed: $70M added: $58M Debt: removed: $17.4B added: $18.3B Net debt: removed: $17.3B added: $18.2B Interest cover: removed: 2.7× added: 2.3× Undrawn credit line: $2.5B Debt due within 12 months: removed: $1.8B added: $1.9B NiSource funds its utilities with senior notes, junior subordinated notes, commercial paper and receivables programs. At removed: June added: September 30, 2026, total debt was removed: $17.40 added: $18.26 billion: long-term debt of removed: $15.61 added: $16.38 billion, current maturities of $1.10 billion and removed: short-term borrowings added: commercial paper of removed: $692 added: $780 million. Cash was removed: $70 added: $58 million. The $2.50 billion revolving credit facility had no borrowings, and added: net available liquidity was removed: $2.10 added: $1.95 billion. removed: In May and August 2026, NiSource sold $2.0 billion added: The debt to capitalization ratio was 51.3%, below the 70.0% limit of removed: new notes and junior subordinated notes. added: the credit facility. Interest cover is operating income divided by net interest expense for the first removed: half added: nine months of 2026. added: NiSource also sells shares through an at-the-market program, which had about $1.15 billion of capacity left at September 30, 2026. Blackstone Infrastructure and other minority holders removed: also fund part of NIPSCO and GenCo with equity removed: contributions, which were $124.5 million in the first half added: contributions. The new capital plan of removed: 2026. added: $40.0 billion for 2027 to 2033 needs more debt and equity. As of removed: Jun added: Sep 30, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 28, 2026: Q3 2026 earnings: guidance and data center plan. removed: Pending. added: Passed. Watch: A reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.02 to $2.07 and progress on GenCo projects pass; lower guidance or a delay in the data center projects fails. removed: Feb added: Outcome: NiSource narrowed its 2026 guidance to the upper half of the range, gave 2027 added: guidance of $2.22 to $2.30 and signed a new data center contract with Microsoft, although the gas plant for Amazon now starts operation in 2030. Jan 28, 2027 (estimate): 2026 results: EPS guidance met. Pending. Watch: 2026 adjusted EPS removed: within added: in the upper half of $2.02 to $2.07 and a reaffirmed removed: 9% added: 2027 guidance of $2.22 to removed: 10% growth target added: $2.30 pass; EPS below the range or removed: a lower removed: target added: 2027 guidance fails.
- Recent events
- Oct added: 28, 2026: NiSource reported Q3 2026 results. Adjusted EPS was $0.27, up from $0.19, and GAAP EPS was $0.27. It narrowed its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to the upper half of $2.02 to $2.07 and gave 2027 guidance of $2.22 to $2.30. It extended its capital plan to $40.0 billion for 2027 to 2033 and raised its yearly adjusted EPS growth target to 10% to 11% for 2027 to 2033. NIPSCO signed a 20-year contract to supply Microsoft's data center, with capacity that rises to 788 MW in 2031. The contract needs approval from the Indiana regulator. NiSource says its data center contracts now bring about $1.75 billion of savings for existing customers. Oct 15, 2026: NIPSCO Generation signed a tolling agreement with an AGP Group company for a 600 MW / 2,400 MWh battery storage project connected to the MISO grid. The first phase is expected to start by December 1, 2027. GenCo will pay about $2.2 billion over a term of about 20.5 years. The agreement needs regulatory approval and an engineering contract and an interconnection agreement by January 31, 2027. Aug 18, 2026: NiSource sold $750 million of 6.250% fixed-to-fixed reset rate junior subordinated notes due 2057. Aug 5, 2026: NiSource reported Q2 2026 results. Adjusted EPS was $0.16, down from $0.22, and GAAP EPS was $0.09. It reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.02 to $2.07, the 9% to 10% annual growth target from 2026 to 2033 and the $28.6 billion capital plan for 2026 to 2030. NiSource said that regulators approved NIPSCO's special contracts with Amazon and Alphabet, which bring about $1.4 billion of savings for existing customers. May 18, 2026: NiSource sold $500 million of 4.750% notes due 2031 and $750 million of 5.300% notes due 2036 to repay existing debt. Feb 11, 2026: NiSource reported 2025 results and gave 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.02 to $2.07. It began to report base plan adjusted EPS, which leaves out data center activities, next to consolidated adjusted EPS.