NBIS changes

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View the full Nov 13, 2026 version

Next earnings: Nov 12, 2026 → Feb 12, 2027
Next earnings is estimate: No → Yes
About: Nebius Group N.V. is an Amsterdam company that sells AI cloud services: GPU capacity, a software platform and a managed inference service (Token Factory) for companies that train and run AI models. Revenue was removed: $582.3 added: $980.8 million in removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026, up removed: 454% added: 571% from removed: $105.1 added: $146.1 million, and the AI cloud business made about removed: 98% added: 99% of it. Annualized run-rate revenue was removed: $3.0 added: $6.4 billion at the end of removed: June 2026. added: September 2026, and remaining performance obligations were $38.7 billion. The group also owns Avride (autonomous vehicles and delivery robots) and TripleTen (education), and holds equity stakes in ClickHouse and Toloka. Nebius removed: expects 5 added: has more than 4 gigawatts (GW) of contracted power added: and expects 5 GW by the end of removed: 2026 and says that it has more than $40 billion of customer commitments. added: 2026. Arkady Volozh is founder and Chief Executive Officer. Nebius is a foreign private issuer: it files a Form 20-F each year and furnishes its results on Form 6-K. The pick is the Class A share on NASDAQ (NBIS), in US dollars.
Thesis: The market prices Nebius as a young AI cloud company that must borrow a very large amount to build the capacity it has already sold. Revenue grew removed: 454% added: 571% in removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026 and the AI cloud business had an adjusted EBITDA margin of removed: 49.7%. added: 53.2%. But capital spending was about removed: $5.7 added: $7.3 billion in the quarter, debt added: on the balance sheet was removed: $8.5 added: $14.2 billion at removed: June added: September 30, 2026, and Nebius removed: then sold $5.75 billion of convertible notes in August and signed a $3.5 billion bridge loan in October that matures in October 2027. added: Delays at third-party data centers moved some capacity into the first half of 2027, so Nebius now expects 2026 revenue at the low end of its $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion range. Customers pay in advance for much of the capacity: deferred revenue was removed: $6.0 added: $9.4 billion at removed: June added: September 30, and removed: Nebius expects added: prepayments on deals signed in Q3 covered more than removed: $9 billion added: 100% of removed: prepayments in 2026. added: their capital spending. For the price to rise, Nebius must removed: turn added: reach its removed: contracts into revenue as fast as it plans, with year-end 2026 annualized run-rate revenue added: 2027 outlook of removed: $7 added: $12 billion to removed: $9 billion, keep the prices added: $13 billion of removed: new deals at the current level, added: revenue and added: a pre-tax breakeven in Q4 2027, bring its owned sites online on time, and pay for removed: the build-out added: $40 billion to $45 billion of capital spending in 2027 without selling many more shares. The removed: Q3 added: Q4 2026 removed: report added: report, which Nebius has not dated yet, is the next removed: test, and the Q4 report follows in early 2027. added: test. The gap can close only over several years of building and filling capacity.
Risks: Funding. Nebius spends far more than it earns: capital spending was about removed: $5.7 added: $7.3 billion in removed: Q2 2026. added: Q3 2026, and it expects $40 billion to $45 billion in 2027. It relies on prepayments, convertible notes, secured loans and share sales. A closed debt market or a fall in the share price would slow the build-out or force more dilution. Execution. Nebius must find power, sites, GPUs and staff for more than 1 GW of new capacity each year from 2027. removed: Late added: Delivery at several third-party sites, including the rest of the New Jersey capacity for Microsoft, moved to the first half of 2027. More late supply or late construction would delay the revenue that its contracts promise. Customers and prices. Large contracts with a few customers, among them Microsoft and Meta, drive much of the growth. If AI spending slows or GPU prices fall, Nebius would have empty capacity and a heavy debt cost. Debt is rising. Debt added: on the balance sheet was added: $14,190.8 million at September 30, 2026, up from $8,545.7 million at June 30, removed: 2026 and grew by about $5.7 billion after that through a secured facility and new notes, net of the exchange. added: 2026. Nebius then signed a $3.5 billion bridge loan that matures in October 2027. Dilution. Nebius sold removed: 12.7 million Class A shares under its at-the-market program in removed: H1 2026, added: with net proceeds of about $1.0 billion in Q3, and exchanged old convertible notes for about 15.8 million shares in removed: August, added: August. Shares outstanding rose to 292,902,405 at September 30, 2026, and removed: its share-based pay was removed: $137.8 added: $196.5 million in the first removed: half. added: nine months.
Balance sheet: added: Cash: $7.4B Debt: $14.2B Net debt: $6.8B Debt due within 12 months: $188M Last debt due: 2034 At removed: June added: September 30, 2026, Nebius had cash added: and cash equivalents of removed: $8,042.1 added: $7,425.6 million and removed: debt added: restricted cash of removed: $8,545.7 added: $1,215.5 million. Debt on the balance sheet was $14,190.8 million, of which removed: $46.7 added: $187.5 million was current. added: It is convertible notes due from 2029 to 2034 and a secured term loan due by October 2030, with $16,478.0 million of principal payable at maturity. Deferred revenue was removed: $5,975.2 added: $9,409.2 million, mostly customer prepayments, and non-current operating lease liabilities were removed: $1,510.4 added: $1,768.8 million. Equity attributable to Nebius was removed: $10,339.5 added: $12,298.2 million. removed: Net added: In the first nine months of 2026, net cash from operating activities was removed: $4,504.1 added: $4,231.1 million removed: in the first six months of 2026 and purchases of property and equipment added: and intangible assets were removed: $8,130.3 added: $15,430.7 million. added: In Q3 2026, income from operations was $50.4 million and interest expense was $112.5 million. There were removed: 271,855,218 added: 292,902,405 shares outstanding. After that date, Nebius removed: took a secured facility of about $775 million in July, sold $5.75 billion of convertible notes in August and signed a $3.5 billion added: senior secured bridge removed: loan added: facility with Citi that matures in removed: October. added: October 2027. All amounts are in US dollars. As of removed: Jun added: Sep 30, 2026.
Checkpoints: Nov 12, 2026: Q3 2026 results: revenue and annualized run-rate revenue. removed: Pending. added: Failed. Watch: Annualized run-rate revenue above $3.0 billion and a reaffirmed 2026 guidance passes; a cut to the guidance fails. added: Outcome: Annualized run-rate revenue rose to $6.4 billion, but Nebius now expects 2026 revenue at the low end of its range and the $7 billion run rate in February 2027, not December 2026. Feb added: 12, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results: removed: year-end annualized run-rate revenue. added: 2026 revenue and 2027 outlook. Pending. Watch: removed: Year-end annualized run-rate added: 2026 revenue of removed: $7 added: $3.0 billion or more added: and a confirmed 2027 outlook of $12 billion to $13 billion of revenue pass; revenue below $3.0 billion or a lower 2027 outlook fail. Q2 2027: Remaining New Jersey capacity for Microsoft. Pending. Watch: Delivery of the remaining New Jersey tranches in Q2 2027 passes; removed: less added: a further delay fails. added: Q4 2027: Pre-tax breakeven. Pending. Watch: A pre-tax result at breakeven or better in Q4 2027 passes; a pre-tax loss fails.
Recent events: added: Nov 12, 2026: Nebius reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue was $980.8 million, up 571%, and adjusted EBITDA was $465.8 million. The net loss from continuing operations was $37.5 million. Annualized run-rate revenue was $6.4 billion at the end of September. Delivery at some third-party sites moved into the first half of 2027, so Nebius now expects 2026 revenue at the low end of its $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion range and annualized run-rate revenue above $7 billion in February 2027, not December 2026. It expects 2026 capital spending of about $27 billion. For 2027 it expects revenue of $12 billion to $13 billion, capital spending of $40 billion to $45 billion and a pre-tax breakeven in Q4 2027. Oct 22, 2026: Nebius said that on October 17, 2026 it signed a $3.5 billion senior secured bridge term loan with Citibank. It bears interest at Term SOFR plus a margin that starts at 2.75% and rises to 3.50%, and it matures on October 16, 2027. Oct 1, 2026: Nebius bought Inferize, a company whose technology cuts the time that AI models need to load and scale in production. Its team and technology joined Token Factory. Sep 8, 2026: Palantir named Nebius its preferred sovereign AI infrastructure partner. After an integration period, Nebius compute and inference will be available to Palantir customers, and the two companies will work to bring new capacity online faster. Aug 24, 2026: Nebius closed an offering of $5.75 billion of convertible senior notes: $3.45 billion of 0.50% notes due 2030 and $2.3 billion of 4.50% notes due 2034. It also agreed to exchange $400 million of its 2029 notes and $400 million of its 2031 notes for about 15.8 million Class A shares. Aug 12, 2026: Nebius reported Q2 2026 results. Revenue was $582.3 million, up 454%, and adjusted EBITDA was $236.2 million. Four large AI cloud deals averaged more than $1 billion each, and Nebius raised its target for contracted power at the end of 2026 to 5 GW. It reaffirmed its 2026 guidance.