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MLM

Current
Price
$524.13
Discount category
Close to intrinsic value
Next earnings
Feb 10, 2027
Next earnings is estimate
Yes
Company name
Martin Marietta Materials
Sector
Construction aggregates, lime and building materials
About
Martin Marietta Materials is a US supplier of aggregates (crushed stone, sand and gravel), lime and limestone products, magnesia-based products and other building materials. It works in 29 states, Canada and The Bahamas. Its Building Materials business sells aggregates, asphalt and paving. Its Specialties business sells lime, limestone and magnesia products. The company changed much in 2026. On February 23 it gave its cement plant and Texas ready mixed concrete assets to QUIKRETE in an asset exchange, with an after-tax gain of $1.4 billion. On May 15 it bought New Frontier Materials, an aggregates business near St. Louis. On August 21 it completed its combination with Lhoist North America (LNA) for total consideration of $12.9 billion, made of $7.0 billion in cash and about $5.9 billion in Martin Marietta shares. LNA had sales of $1,754 million and income from operations of $683 million in 2025. Revenue was $2,369 million in Q3 2026. Ward Nye is Chair, President and Chief Executive Officer. The pick is the common stock on the NYSE (MLM), in US dollars.
Thesis
The market prices Martin Marietta as a company that took on much debt and many new businesses while costs in its main business rise faster than prices. In Q3 2026, aggregates cash gross profit per ton fell 8% to $10.36 and gross profit per ton fell 17%, because energy costs and depreciation grew faster than the organic mix-adjusted price, which rose 2.7%. Total debt rose to $12,823 million from $5,323 million at the end of 2025 for the LNA purchase. The credit agreements cap net debt over EBITDA at 4.75 times now, 4.25 times and then 3.75 times. For the price to rise, price increases on January 1, 2027, which the company expects to be mid- to high-single digit on a mix-adjusted basis, must restore a positive price-cost gap. LNA must keep earning as it did since closing, and cash flow must cut leverage. The Q4 report in February 2027 and its 2027 guidance are the next test. If price increases hold, the gap can close within about two years.
Risks
Debt and leverage. Total debt was $12,823 million at September 30, 2026. The credit agreements cap net debt over EBITDA at 4.75 times for three quarters after August 21, 2026, then 4.25 times for three quarters and 3.75 times after that. A weak market could strain the limit. Costs are rising faster than prices. Aggregates gross profit per ton fell 16% to $7.05 in nine months. The company expects price increases in 2027 to restore a positive price-cost gap, but they may not fully hold. Heritage demand is softer. The company lowered its outlook for its own operations, and it expects softer interest-rate-sensitive private construction. Organic aggregates shipments fell modestly in Q3. Integration of LNA and other deals. Pretax earnings of acquired businesses include charges of $112 million in nine months for selling inventory marked up to fair value. LNA adds a new type of business in lime. Shares were issued for LNA. Shares outstanding rose to 71,118,485 at October 30, 2026 from a weighted average of 60.3 million in Q3 2025, so earnings per share grow only if earnings rise by more.
Balance sheet
Cash: $140M Debt: $12.8B Net debt: $12.7B Undrawn credit line: $1.4B Debt due within 12 months: $720M At September 30, 2026, Martin Marietta had total debt of $12,823 million, with $12,103 million long term and $720 million due within a year. It had unrestricted cash of $140 million and $1.4 billion of unused borrowing capacity. The debt includes a $1.5 billion three-year term facility and $5.5 billion of senior unsecured notes issued in August 2026, and $420 million on the trade receivable facility. Cash from operations was $896 million in nine months, including $250 million of cash tax on the QUIKRETE gain. Capital spending was $445 million, against $602 million a year earlier. The company returned $361 million in dividends and share repurchases. It had 71,118,485 shares outstanding at October 30, 2026. All amounts are in US dollars. As of Sep 30, 2026.
Checkpoints
Feb 10, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidance: pricing and EBITDA. Pending. Watch: A 2027 guidance midpoint for adjusted EBITDA above $3.0 billion and aggregates pricing up by mid- to high-single digits pass; lower fails. Jul 2027 (estimate): Q2 2027 results: leverage covenant step-down. Pending. Watch: Net debt over EBITDA below 4.25 times at June 30, 2027 passes; above fails.
Recent events
Nov 4, 2026: Martin Marietta reported Q3 2026 results. Revenues were $2,369 million, up 28%, adjusted EBITDA was $808 million, up 21%, and adjusted EPS was $5.47, against $6.12. It updated 2026 guidance to revenues of $7,750 million to $7,850 million and adjusted EBITDA of $2,450 million to $2,500 million, and said that heritage demand is softer. Sep 18, 2026: Martin Marietta bought The Frazier Quarry, Inc., an aggregates business in Harrisonburg, Virginia. Aug 21, 2026: Martin Marietta completed its combination with LNA, a producer of high-calcium lime, dolomitic lime and industrial minerals with 20 quarries and production facilities. It paid $7.0 billion in cash, funded by a $1.5 billion three-year term loan and $5.5 billion of senior unsecured notes, and issued about $5.9 billion of shares. Since the closing, LNA added revenues of $216 million and cash gross profit of $115 million to Q3. May 15, 2026: Martin Marietta bought New Frontier Materials LLC, an aggregates business near St. Louis that produces over 8 million tons a year. Feb 23, 2026: Martin Marietta completed its asset exchange with QUIKRETE. It gave its Midlothian cement plant, its cement terminals and its Texas ready mixed concrete assets, with an after-tax gain of $1.4 billion. It paid $250 million of cash tax on the gain.
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