MBGL changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $18.72 → $19.92(+6.4%)
- Discount category
- Deep below intrinsic value → Far below intrinsic value
- Next earnings
- Nov 12, 2026 → Feb 12, 2027
- Next earnings is estimate
- No → Yes
- About
- Mobility Global is the former S&P Global Mobility division, which S&P Global spun off on July 1, 2026. S&P Global shareholders received one Mobility Global share for each S&P Global share, and S&P Global kept no shares. The company sells automotive data, analytics and software, and most of its revenue comes from subscriptions. The CARFAX segment sells vehicle history reports, car listings and other products to more than 40,000 dealers, and to banks and insurers. The B2B segment sells market data, buyer predictions, sales forecasts and dealer marketing tools such as Polk, automotiveMastermind and Market Scan to car makers, suppliers, dealers and banks. In removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026, CARFAX had removed: $312 added: $313 million of revenue and B2B had removed: $156 added: $164 million.
- Thesis
- The market prices Mobility Global as a new spin-off with new debt and lower reported profits. Many S&P Global shareholders received the shares without choosing them, and a new company has no track record as a standalone business. Mobility Global issued $2.0 billion of senior notes before the spin-off and used the money mainly for a dividend to S&P Global. Its GAAP operating profit fell 15% in Q2 2026 because selling and general expenses rose 31%, mostly from $34 million of higher costs to set up the standalone company. Investors also fear weak car markets and AI tools that can copy parts of data and analytics products. For the gap to close, Mobility Global must meet its 2026 guidance of $1,870 million to $1,885 million of revenue and removed: $745 added: $750 million to $760 million of adjusted EBITDA. CARFAX revenue must keep growing near the 8% of Q2 added: and Q3 2026, and new products removed: such as CARFAX Showroom and CARFAX Germany must add revenue. Standalone costs must stop rising, and free cash flow must cover removed: interest added: interest, the dividend and the removed: dividend. added: share buybacks. The Q3 2026 report on November 12, 2026, removed: is the first full quarter as a standalone company, added: passed this test: revenue grew 7.4%, and the added: company raised the low end of its adjusted EBITDA guidance. But selling and general expenses rose 50%, and the adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 41% from 43%. The Q4 report with the 2027 guidance in about February 2027 gives the next test. If growth and margins hold, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters.
- Risks
- Mobility Global is a new standalone company. It must replace services that S&P Global gave it. In removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026, selling and general expenses rose removed: $41 added: $68 million, removed: including $34 added: or 50%. $13 million of added: this was higher costs removed: to set up added: of the removed: standalone company added: separation, and added: the rest came mainly from higher removed: compensation costs. added: compensation, strategic investments, advertising and the costs of a standalone public company. Revenue depends on car dealers and car makers. Weak car sales or fewer dealers can cut subscriptions to CARFAX and B2B products. AI tools and other data providers can compete with parts of its data and analytics products, which can lower prices or slow growth. The company has $2.0 billion of new removed: debt. added: debt and plans to buy back $350 million to $450 million of shares by the end of 2027. The credit facility has a maximum added: net leverage ratio of 3.50 times, and removed: higher debt costs added: and buybacks lower the cash for removed: dividends and investment.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: removed: $186M added: $351M Debt: $2.0B Net debt: removed: $1.8B added: $1.6B EBITDA, last 12 months: removed: $740M added: $744M Net debt / EBITDA: removed: 2.5× added: 2.2× (medium) Undrawn credit line: $500M, to July 2031 Debt due within 12 months: $0.0M Last debt due: 2036 removed: Mobility Global had no long-term debt at December 31, 2025. Debt is the $2.0 billion principal of the senior notes issued on May 29, 2026: $650 million of 5.050% notes due 2029, $650 million of 5.450% notes due 2031 and $700 million of 6.050% notes due 2036, with interest paid each June 15 and December 15 from December 15, 2026. added: The balance sheet shows them as $1,981 million of long-term debt at September 30, 2026. Nothing is due within 12 months. Cash removed: is added: rose to $351 million at removed: June added: September 30, 2026, removed: and these results are on a carve-out basis. added: from $186 million at June 30. EBITDA is removed: the company's adjusted EBITDA for the 12 months to removed: June added: September 30, 2026, added: a calculation on this page from removed: its added: the company's carve-out added: and consolidated figures. removed: The added: Nothing was drawn on the $500 million revolving credit removed: facility became available on July 1, 2026, and it added: facility, which requires a added: net leverage ratio of not more than 3.50 removed: times. added: times, and the company was in compliance with its covenants. Free cash flow was $186 million in Q3 2026 and $363 million in the first nine months. The company pays a quarterly dividend of $0.06 per removed: share. Free cash flow was $177 added: share, and it plans to buy back $350 million removed: in added: to $450 million of shares by the removed: first half added: end of removed: 2026. added: 2027 under an $800 million program. As of removed: Jun added: Sep 30, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 12, 2026: Q3 2026 results: first full standalone quarter. removed: Pending. added: Passed. Watch: Revenue growth near 7% with adjusted EBITDA on track for the $745 million to $760 million guidance passes; a guidance cut or higher standalone costs fail. added: Outcome: Revenue rose 7.4% and the company raised the low end of its adjusted EBITDA guidance to $750 million, although selling and general expenses rose 50%. Feb added: 12, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: 2027 guidance with steady CARFAX growth and stable margins passes; slower growth or lower margins fail.
- Recent events
- added: Nov 12, 2026: Mobility Global reported Q3 2026 results, its first full quarter as a standalone company. Revenue rose 7.4% to $478 million, CARFAX revenue rose 8% to $313 million and B2B revenue rose 6% to $164 million. Net income fell 41% to $42 million, and adjusted EBITDA rose 2% to $195 million, a 41% margin. Free cash flow was $186 million. It raised its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $750 million to $760 million from $745 million to $760 million and kept its revenue guidance of $1,870 million to $1,885 million. In October, the board authorized a share buyback of up to $800 million, and the company expects to buy back $350 million to $450 million of shares by the end of 2027. It declared a quarterly dividend of $0.06 per share, payable on December 14, 2026. Oct 8, 2026: Mobility Global said that it will report Q3 2026 results on November 12, 2026. Aug 7, 2026: Mobility Global reported Q2 2026 results, its first as a public company. Revenue rose 7% to $468 million, CARFAX revenue rose 8% and B2B revenue rose 4%. Net income fell 18% to $53 million, and adjusted EBITDA rose 7% to $202 million, a 43% margin. It gave 2026 guidance of $1,870 million to $1,885 million of revenue and $745 million to $760 million of adjusted EBITDA, and it started a quarterly dividend of $0.06 per share. Jul 1, 2026: S&P Global completed the spin-off of Mobility Global. S&P Global shareholders of record on June 15, 2026 received one Mobility Global share for each S&P Global share, and the shares started to trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol MBGL. May 29, 2026: Mobility Global issued $2.0 billion of senior notes: $650 million at 5.050% due 2029, $650 million at 5.450% due 2031 and $700 million at 6.050% due 2036. The money stayed in escrow until the spin-off on June 30, 2026, and was used mainly for a dividend to S&P Global. May 6, 2026: Mobility Global signed a $500 million revolving credit facility, available from July 1, 2026 and due July 1, 2031.