LOW changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $195.17 → $231.60(+18.7%)
- Discount category
- Well below intrinsic value → Close to intrinsic value
- Next earnings
- Nov 19, 2026 → Nov 18, 2026
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes → No
- Thesis
- The market discounts Lowe's because high mortgage rates keep US home sales low, and fewer home sales mean fewer large DIY projects. The average 30-year mortgage rate reached 7.5% in late September 2026, its highest level since April 2024, and Lowe's stock fell 8.5% in September. In Q2 2026, comparable sales grew only 0.2%, and customer transactions fell 2.1%. Lowe's cut its 2026 outlook to flat comparable sales and sales of $92.0 billion. The 2025 purchases of Foundation Building Materials and Artisan Design Group added debt, so Lowe's uses its cash to repay debt, and it bought back few shares in 2026. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Comparable sales must turn clearly positive, with customer transactions that stop falling. The Pro business and the two acquired distributors must keep growing and raise profit. Debt must keep falling while Lowe's keeps its BBB+ and Baa1 ratings, so that buybacks can start again. The evidence comes with the Q3 2026 removed: report, expected in about mid-November added: report on November 18, 2026, and the full-year report with the 2027 outlook in February 2027. Mortgage rates and home sales in the spring 2027 season are the main test. The gap can close only as the housing market recovers, probably over two to three years. If mortgage rates stay near 7.5%, the discount can last.
- Checkpoints
- Nov removed: 19, 2026 (estimate): added: 18, 2026: Q3 2026 results: comparable sales and transactions. Pending. Watch: Positive comparable sales with a smaller fall in customer transactions and no new cut to the 2026 outlook pass; negative comparable sales or another outlook cut fails. added: Dec 9, 2026: Analyst and Investor Conference: growth and debt plans. Pending. Watch: Clear targets for comparable sales, Pro growth and debt reduction, with a plan to start buybacks again, pass; no new targets or lower targets fail. Feb 2027 (estimate): Full-year 2026 results and 2027 outlook. Pending. Watch: A 2027 outlook with positive comparable sales and lower debt passes; an outlook of flat or negative comparable sales fails. Q2 2027 (estimate): Spring 2027 season: housing and DIY demand. Pending. Watch: Lower mortgage rates and a rise in existing home sales in spring 2027 pass; mortgage rates near 7.5% with home sales still low fail.