LNT changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $71.65 → $73.62(+2.7%)
- Discount category
- Below intrinsic value → Close to intrinsic value
- Thesis
- The market prices Alliant Energy as a utility that must spend a lot of money and issue new shares to serve data centers. The company expects peak demand to grow by about 60% by 2031, and its utilities have 3.4 GW of contracted data center demand. In October 2026, it raised its capital plan for 2027 to 2030 by 19% to $15.9 billion. It has applied for large new natural gas plants in Iowa, such as a 720 MW unit in Linn County and the 1,200 MW Riverhawk Energy Center. To pay for this, it removed: sells added: plans to issue up to $2.7 billion of new shares added: from 2027 through removed: a $1 billion at-the-market program, added: 2030, issues new debt and can borrow up to $5.1 billion through loans that the U.S. Department of Energy guarantees. In the first nine months of 2026, operating income covered interest expense only 1.9 times. Investors fear that new shares and higher interest costs lower earnings growth, and that data center load comes late. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Alliant Energy must earn 2027 ongoing EPS within its $3.63 to $3.73 guidance, which needs the expected revenue from new data centers. The data centers in its area must start to use power as planned. The Iowa Utilities Commission must approve the new gas plants on terms that let the company earn a fair return, with decisions expected in Q1 and Q2 2027. The Q4 2026 report in early 2027 and the Iowa decisions give the next evidence. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next two to four quarters. The main reason it may not close is a regulatory decision that limits the return on the new investment.
- Risks
- The building plan needs much new debt and new shares. In October 2026, Alliant Energy raised its capital plan for 2027 to 2030 to $15.9 billion. removed: In Q2 added: At September 30, 2026, it removed: sold added: had unsettled forward removed: 6.55 added: sales of about 25.6 million shares for removed: $482 million under its at-the-market program. added: $1,736 million, and it expects to issue up to $2.7 billion of common stock from 2027 through 2030. More shares lower the growth in EPS, and higher interest rates raise the cost of new debt. Much of the growth depends on data centers. If these customers delay or reduce their projects, the utilities may build generation that customers do not use, and regulators may not allow the full cost in rates. Regulators in Iowa and Wisconsin decide how much the utilities may earn. Decisions on the new gas plants are expected in 2027, and the new large load tariff in Wisconsin will set the terms for large customers. Weather affects sales. Temperatures lowered retail electric and gas sales by about $0.03 per share in Q2 2026.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $26M Debt: $12.6B Net debt: $12.5B Interest cover: 1.9× Debt due within 12 months: $1.5B At September 30, 2026, debt was $12.56 billion: long-term debt of $11.09 billion, current maturities of $374 million, commercial paper of $704 million and other short-term borrowings of $400 million. The amount due within 12 months includes the current maturities, the commercial paper and the other short-term borrowings. Cash was $26 million, which is normal for a utility that uses commercial paper. Interest cover is operating income of $823 million divided by interest expense of $430 million for the first nine months of 2026. It is low because of the large building plan. On October 28, 2026, the utilities closed loans of up to $5.1 billion that the U.S. Department of Energy guarantees, with a final maturity in 2056. Each advance needs state approval of the project and other conditions. At removed: June added: September 30, 2026, Alliant Energy removed: also had forward sale agreements removed: for shares worth $482 million, which added: that it had not yet removed: settled. added: settled: 18,668,448 shares for $1,232 million under its 2025 at-the-market program and 6,912,857 shares for $504 million under its 2026 program. It expects to settle up to $650 million of them in the rest of 2026, and to issue up to $2.7 billion of common stock from 2027 through 2030. As of Sep 30, 2026.
- Recent events
- Oct added: 30, 2026: Alliant Energy filed its Q3 2026 quarterly report. It expects to settle up to $650 million of its forward share sales in the rest of 2026. From 2027 through 2030, it expects to issue up to $2.7 billion of common stock through its at-the-market programs, its Shareowner Direct Plan and other offerings. At September 30, 2026, its unsettled forward sales were about 25.6 million shares for $1,736 million. Oct 29, 2026: Alliant Energy reported Q3 2026 results. GAAP EPS was $1.52, compared with $1.09 a year earlier, partly because of the timing of income tax expense, which reverses by the end of the year. Ongoing EPS for the first nine months rose 14% to $2.99. The company narrowed its 2026 ongoing EPS guidance to $3.41 to $3.46, from $3.36 to $3.46. It gave 2027 ongoing EPS guidance of $3.63 to $3.73 and a 2027 dividend target of $2.25 per share, up from $2.14. It raised its capital plan for 2027 to 2030 by 19% to $15.9 billion. Its utilities have 3.4 GW of contracted data center demand. Interstate Power and Light will extend its Iowa retail electric base rate stability plan through 2030. Oct 28, 2026: Alliant Energy closed a loan package of up to $5.1 billion from the U.S. Department of Energy. The Federal Financing Bank will lend up to $3.5 billion to Interstate Power and Light and up to $1.63 billion to Wisconsin Power and Light, and the Department of Energy guarantees the loans. Each advance bears interest at the U.S. Treasury rate plus 0.375 percentage points, and the final maturity is May 15, 2056. The money is for new natural gas and battery storage projects, and each advance needs state approval of the project and other conditions. The company projects customer savings of up to $1.2 billion over the life of the loans. Aug 21, 2026: Interstate Power and Light, a subsidiary of Alliant Energy, sold $500 million of 5.100% senior debentures due September 30, 2031. It plans to use the money to reduce commercial paper and capital under its receivables program, and for general corporate purposes. Jul 31, 2026: Alliant Energy's Q2 2026 quarterly report listed new steps for data centers. In April 2026, Interstate Power and Light signed an agreement with a customer that plans a data center in Iowa, with a contracted peak demand of about 370 MW. In June 2026, Wisconsin regulators approved a customer rate for a data center in Wisconsin Power and Light's area and told the utility to file a large load tariff for customers of 100 MW or more. In July 2026, Interstate Power and Light applied to build the Riverhawk Energy Center, a natural gas plant of about 1,200 MW, with a decision expected in Q2 2027. Jul 30, 2026: Alliant Energy reported Q2 2026 results. GAAP EPS was $0.65, compared with $0.68 a year earlier. Higher rate base at both utilities raised earnings, and higher operating, financing and depreciation costs and mild weather lowered them. The company kept its 2026 ongoing EPS guidance of $3.36 to $3.46 and said that it trends in the upper half of the range. It expects load growth of 60% by 2031.