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View the full Nov 12, 2026 version

Price: $89.44
Discount category: Below intrinsic value
Intrinsic value source: AI estimate
Next earnings: Mar 1, 2027
Next earnings is estimate: Yes
Company name: added: Kaspi.kz
Sector: added: Payments, marketplace and consumer finance
About: added: Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz is a payments, marketplace and fintech company based in Almaty, Kazakhstan. In Kazakhstan, its Kaspi.kz Super App gives consumers payments, e-Commerce, e-Grocery, loans, deposits, travel and government services in one app, and its Kaspi Pay Super App serves merchants. Active consumers in Kazakhstan make 77 transactions a month with it. Kaspi.kz has three segments: Payments, Marketplace and Fintech. Fintech is Kaspi Bank, which lends to consumers and merchants and takes deposits. In January 2025, Kaspi.kz bought control of Hepsiburada, an e-Commerce company in Türkiye, and it now owns 93.51% of it. In July 2026, it bought Rabobank A.Ş. in Türkiye and renamed it Hepsi Bank. The company serves more than 27 million consumers and 907 thousand merchants in the two countries. Mikheil Lomtadze is co-founder and Chief Executive Officer. Kaspi.kz files Form 20-F and Form 6-K with the SEC and reports in Kazakhstan tenge (KZT) under IFRS Accounting Standards. Its American Depositary Shares (ADSs) trade on Nasdaq in US dollars, and the Form 20-F states that each ADS represents one common share.
Thesis: added: The price of Kaspi.kz depends on whether its profits in Kazakhstan can grow again while it spends money in Türkiye. In the nine months to September 30, 2026, net income was KZT 792 billion, about the same as a year earlier. Three things held profit back. The cost of deposits rose after interest rates went up in Kazakhstan, the tax rate for banks went up to 25% in 2026, and Hepsiburada lost money, KZT 93 billion in 2025. The market also prices the risk of one country and one currency, because almost all profit comes from Kazakhstan in tenge. Kaspi.kz pays most of its profit as dividends. The dividend for Q2 2026 was KZT 1,000 per ADS, and the Board proposed KZT 1,000 more for Q3 2026, for a vote on December 9, 2026. For the price to rise, three things must happen. The two cuts of 100 basis points to the deposit rate in August and October 2026 must lower funding costs in 2027, as the company expects. Spending in Türkiye must fall in 2027, as the company also expects. The marketplace in Kazakhstan must grow again after a stronger tenge made goods cheaper. The Q4 2026 report, expected in late February or early March 2027, is the next test.
Valuation: added: The intrinsic value for Kaspi.kz is an AI estimate from November 12, 2026. It is not an analyst's value. An AI research agent calculated it from the filings of Kaspi.kz with the SEC. The pick is the American Depositary Share. The 2025 annual report on Form 20-F (filed March 16, 2026) lists American Depositary Shares, each representing one common share, as the security registered on Nasdaq, and the interim financial information for the nine months to September 30, 2026 (6-K, November 12, 2026) says that one ADS represents one share, so the value per share is the value per ADS. Kaspi.kz reports in tenge. The method is a multiple of net income attributable to shareholders for 2027, divided by the number of shares and converted to US dollars, with a sum of the parts and the dividend as checks. The interim financial information gives 190,027,266 common shares outstanding at September 30, 2026, after treasury shares, and 798,268 potential shares from share-based pay for the nine months. The estimate adds them, for 190,825,534 shares. It gives net income attributable to shareholders of KZT 784,684 million for the nine months to September 30, 2026. The Form 20-F gives KZT 1,073,177 million for 2025, and the interim report gives KZT 788,801 million for the nine months to September 30, 2025, so Q4 2025 was KZT 284,376 million and the 12 months to September 30, 2026 were KZT 1,069,060 million. The Q3 2026 release (6-K, November 9, 2026) says that the company cut its three-month deposit rate by 100 basis points in August and again in October 2026, that it expects the benefit in 2027, and that it expects investments in Türkiye to moderate significantly in 2027. The estimate uses group net income, so it includes the losses of Hepsiburada and the interest on the debt of the group, and it makes no other adjustment for debt or cash, because most of them belong to the bank. The 2027 net income and the multiples are assumptions. The low case assumes net income of KZT 1,050,000 million, because funding costs stay high, the tenge stays strong and losses in Türkiye do not fall. It gives KZT 5,502 per share, and at 6 times it gives KZT 33,014 per share. The base case assumes KZT 1,200,000 million, from loan growth near the 14% of Q3 2026, lower deposit rates and smaller losses in Türkiye. It gives KZT 6,288 per share, and at 8 times it gives KZT 50,308 per share. The high case assumes KZT 1,330,000 million, because funding costs fall faster and the marketplace in Kazakhstan grows again. It gives KZT 6,970 per share, and at 10 times it gives KZT 69,697 per share. The estimate converts each case at KZT 444.76 per US dollar, which is the official rate of the National Bank of Kazakhstan for November 12, 2026. The use of this rate for the future is an assumption. The cases are $74.23, $113.11 and $156.71 per share. The estimate assumes weights of 25%, 50% and 25%. The weighted intrinsic value is $114.29 per share. As a check, the sum of the parts uses the net income of each segment for 2025 in the Form 20-F: Payments KZT 433,001 million, Marketplace KZT 279,773 million plus KZT 93,018 million of Hepsiburada losses, and Fintech KZT 354,933 million. At an assumed 10 times for Payments and Marketplace and 6 times for Fintech, which is a bank that must keep capital, and with the Hepsiburada stake at half of the about $1,364 million that Kaspi.kz paid for it, the parts give about $124 per share. This is near the base case, but it uses 2025 profit, before the higher bank tax rate of 2026. As a second check, the dividend of KZT 1,000 per share each quarter is KZT 4,000 a year, or $8.99 per share at the same rate, which is about 71% of the net income of the last 12 months. Kaspi Bank had a Tier 1 capital ratio (k1.2) of 14.3% at September 30, 2026, against a minimum of 6.5% plus buffers of 4%, so the estimate assumes that the bank can keep paying this dividend. The Form 20-F says that dividends depend on payments from Kaspi Bank and its capital. As of Nov 12, 2026.
Risks: added: Almost all profit comes from Kazakhstan and is in tenge. A weaker tenge lowers the value of profit and dividends in US dollars. Changes in tax, bank rules or reserve requirements in Kazakhstan can cut profit, as the higher bank tax rate of 2026 did. Kaspi Bank pays for its loans with deposits. In Q3 2026, the average cost of funding was 14.9%, 150 basis points more than a year earlier. If interest rates stay high, profit in Fintech stays under pressure. Hepsiburada lost KZT 93 billion in 2025, and Kaspi.kz plans to put about $300 million into Hepsi Bank. Türkiye has high inflation and a weak lira, and the business there may not earn a profit for several years. Consumer loans can go bad when the economy slows. The NPL ratio was 6.9% in the first nine months of 2026, up from 6.1% for 2025. Dividends depend on payments from Kaspi Bank. The bank must keep capital above the minimum of the National Bank of Kazakhstan, and a lower capital ratio could limit the dividend.
Balance sheet: added: At September 30, 2026, Kaspi.kz had total assets of KZT 12,392 billion. They included cash and cash equivalents of KZT 1,080 billion, mandatory cash balances with the National Bank of Kazakhstan of KZT 493 billion, investment securities of KZT 1,580 billion and loans to customers of KZT 7,650 billion. Most funding is customer accounts of KZT 8,445 billion. Debt securities issued were KZT 555 billion, up from KZT 332 billion at December 31, 2025, after the issue of $600 million of 5.900% notes due 2031 in April 2026. Equity attributable to shareholders was KZT 2,670 billion. Kaspi Bank had a Tier 1 capital ratio (k1.2) of 14.3% under the rules of the National Bank of Kazakhstan. The minimum is 6.5%, plus a conservation buffer of 3% and a systemic buffer of 1%. As of Sep 30, 2026.
Checkpoints: added: Dec 9, 2026: Shareholder vote on the Q3 2026 dividend. Pending. Watch: Shareholders approve the dividend of KZT 1,000 per share, and this passes; a lower dividend fails. Mar 1, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Pending. Watch: Adjusted EBITDA grows about 5% for 2026 as guided and the 2027 guidance shows lower funding costs and less spending in Türkiye, and this passes; a missed 2026 guidance fails. May 2027 (estimate): Q1 2027 results. Pending. Watch: Net income grows faster than in 2026 as deposit costs fall, and this passes; flat net income fails.
Recent events: added: Nov 9, 2026: Kaspi.kz reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue rose 18% in constant currency to KZT 1.1 trillion, adjusted EBITDA rose 1% to KZT 408 billion and net income was KZT 281 billion. The company kept its guidance of about 5% growth in adjusted EBITDA for 2026 and cut its guidance for Marketplace GMV growth to about 12%. Nov 9, 2026: The Board proposed a dividend of KZT 1,000 per common share for Q3 2026. Shareholders vote on it on December 9, 2026, with a record date of December 8, 2026. Nov 9, 2026: Kaspi.kz said that it will grow its Magnum Daily grocery stores in Kazakhstan from a pilot of 42 stores to about 300 stores by the end of 2027. Sep 9, 2026: Shareholders approved a dividend of KZT 1,000 per common share for Q2 2026, up from KZT 850 for Q1 2026. Jul 14, 2026: Kaspi.kz bought all of Rabobank A.Ş. in Türkiye and renamed it Hepsi Bank. The company said that it plans to put about $300 million of capital into the bank. Apr 24, 2026: Kaspi.kz issued $600 million of 5.900% senior unsecured notes due 2031. Mar 2, 2026: Kaspi.kz reported 2025 results and started a quarterly dividend of KZT 850 per ADS. The company said that the tax rate for banks in Kazakhstan went up to 25% from 20% in 2026.