INTU changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $325.15 → $342.64(+5.4%)
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes → No
- Thesis
- Investors fear that free AI tools will let simple tax filers skip TurboTax. They also fear that people will manage their money inside AI chat tools such as ChatGPT and visit Credit Karma less. This fear deepened in May 2026, when Intuit cut its TurboTax revenue guidance. Intuit said it lost price-sensitive filers and cut 17% of its workforce. Two securities class actions followed in July and August 2026, which add legal cost and negative attention. A change in how Intuit reports earnings adds confusion. From fiscal 2027, non-GAAP earnings include stock pay, so the fiscal 2027 guidance looks lower than the fiscal 2026 figure on the old basis. The gap can close if Intuit's own AI agents and its apps inside ChatGPT and Claude keep customers filing and banking with Intuit. Fiscal 2026 revenue grew 14% to $21.4 billion, and the newer "Big Bets" products grew 34%. At its September 17, 2026 investor day, Intuit reiterated 9% to 10% revenue growth for fiscal 2027. The real test is the next tax season, from January to April 2027. TurboTax must show that it keeps its price-sensitive filers this time. Fiscal Q1 2027 earnings removed: in late added: on November added: 19, 2026 give the first read before that season starts. If TurboTax holds share through the 2027 tax season and Credit Karma keeps growing, the AI-disruption discount should start to close over the next two to four quarters.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 19, removed: 2026 (estimate): added: 2026: Fiscal Q1 2027 earnings: first read before tax season. Pending. Watch: Revenue on track for the 9% to 10% fiscal 2027 growth guidance and steady Credit Karma growth pass; a guidance cut or weak Credit Karma fails. Feb 2027 (estimate): Fiscal Q2 2027 earnings: early tax season signs. Pending. Watch: TurboTax guidance kept and no new loss of price-sensitive filers pass; a lower TurboTax outlook fails. May 2027 (estimate): Fiscal Q3 2027 earnings: TurboTax tax season 2027 result. Pending. Watch: TurboTax units and revenue that meet guidance and keep share pass; a second year of lost filers or a revenue cut fails.
- Recent events
- Oct 20, 2026: Intuit launched Credit Karma Tax for all Credit Karma members, for any level of tax complexity. The federal return is free, and each state return costs a flat $15. Optional expert help costs $29 or $39. This is the free offer for price-sensitive filers that Intuit described at its investor day. Oct added: 15, 2026: Intuit signed an agreement to buy Sequence, an AI revenue management company for mid-market businesses. Sequence adds pricing, billing and collection tools to Intuit Enterprise Suite and QuickBooks Online Advanced. Intuit did not disclose the financial terms. Oct 15, 2026: Intuit agreed to buy Sequence, a young company with an AI platform that automates quotes, billing and revenue recognition. Intuit will add it to Intuit Enterprise Suite and QuickBooks Online Advanced for mid-market businesses. Intuit did not give the price. Oct 14, 2026: Intuit made Intuit Intelligence, its AI agent platform for QuickBooks and its accountant software, available outside the United States, with releases from Toronto, London and Sydney. Some new features, such as automatic invoicing, are in beta. Sep 17, 2026: At its investor day, the CEO said that price was the main reason why do-it-yourself tax customers left TurboTax. In tax year 2025, Intuit tested Credit Karma Tax, with a free federal return and a $15 state return. Intuit said that Credit Karma will now lead with a free offer for price-sensitive filers. Sep 17, 2026: At its investor day, Intuit reiterated fiscal 2027 guidance: revenue of $23.28 to $23.51 billion (9% to 10% growth) and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $22.88 to $23.12 (23% to 24% growth on the new basis). It also set three-year targets: 10% to 15% yearly growth for Global Business Solutions, 4% to 8% for Consumer, and non-GAAP EPS growth in the high teens or more. Aug 25, 2026: Intuit reported fiscal 2026 results. Revenue grew 14% to $21.4 billion, and the newer 'Big Bets' products grew 34%. Intuit guided 9% to 10% revenue growth for fiscal 2027 and raised the quarterly dividend 15% to $1.38. From fiscal 2027, non-GAAP earnings include stock pay. The stock fell about 12% on the next day. Aug 17, 2026: A second class action, Bruce v. Intuit, was filed in the same court. It covers a longer period, from February 25, 2025 to June 1, 2026. Jul 10, 2026: A shareholder filed a securities class action, Baldwin v. Intuit, in the US District Court for the Northern District of California. It alleges misleading statements about TurboTax's position with do-it-yourself filers from August 22, 2025 to May 20, 2026. May 20, 2026: Intuit reported Q3 fiscal 2026 revenue of $8.56 billion, up 10%. It lowered its TurboTax outlook because it lost price-sensitive filers. It also announced a cut of 17% of its full-time workforce, about 3,000 jobs according to Reuters. Feb 24, 2026: Intuit announced a multi-year partnership with Anthropic. TurboTax, Credit Karma, QuickBooks and Mailchimp connect to Claude products, and Intuit builds custom AI agents for mid-market businesses with the Claude Agent SDK. Intuit signed a similar deal with OpenAI in November 2025.