INTU changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $317.84 → $275.79(−13.2%)
- Discount category
- Below intrinsic value → Well below intrinsic value
- Thesis
- removed: In 2026, Intuit became one of the worst-performing stocks in the S&P 500. Investors fear that added: free AI removed: chatbots can soon do added: tools will let simple tax removed: returns and basic budgeting for free, which would hurt TurboTax's price-sensitive filers removed: and added: skip TurboTax. They also fear AI chat tools will take over Credit Karma's removed: loan-matching business. Intuit has responded by signing multi-year partnerships added: business of matching users with removed: both OpenAI added: loans and removed: Anthropic, building their AI models into added: cards. This fear deepened in May 2026, when Intuit cut its removed: own products instead added: TurboTax revenue guidance. Intuit said it lost price-sensitive filers and cut 17% of removed: only competing against them. Despite added: its workforce. A securities class action followed, adding legal cost and extra negative attention on top of the removed: AI fear, added: growth worry. The gap can close if Intuit's removed: core segments kept growing at double-digit rates through fiscal 2026, including Credit Karma and its small business tools. If Intuit's own AI removed: agents added: agents, built with OpenAI and Anthropic, keep customers filing and banking inside its removed: apps, rather than switching added: apps instead of moving to outside AI removed: tools, added: tools. Fiscal 2026 results published in August 2026 showed Intuit topped $20 billion in revenue, with its newer "Big Bets" products growing 34%. At its September 17, 2026 investor day, Intuit reiterated 9-10% revenue growth for fiscal 2027. The real test is the removed: disruption fear may prove overstated. added: next tax season, which runs from January to April 2027. TurboTax must show it kept its price-sensitive filers this time. Q1 fiscal 2027 earnings on December 1, 2026 give the first read before that season starts. If TurboTax holds share through tax season 2027 and Credit Karma keeps growing, the AI-disruption discount should start to close over the next two to four quarters.
- Risks
- AI-native tools may let simple tax filers complete a return without paying for TurboTax. Management already lowered its own TurboTax growth outlook, because of price-sensitive customers testing free alternatives. OpenAI added a personal finance feature inside ChatGPT that matches users with financial products. This sits close to Credit Karma's core business of matching users with loans and credit cards, Intuit's fastest-growing segment. added: A securities class action alleges Intuit added: made misleading statements about TurboTax's price position among do-it-yourself filers before the May 2026 guidance cut. The case moved past its lead-plaintiff deadline in September 2026 and is added: headed toward litigation, which adds legal cost and headline risk on top of the AI-disruption worry. Intuit is cutting about 3,000 jobs, 17% of its workforce, while trying to launch new AI agent products at the same time. A restructuring this large carries execution risk that could slow product delivery or hurt customer service during the transition.
- Recent events
- added: Sep 17, 2026: At its annual Investor Day, Intuit reiterated fiscal 2027 guidance: total revenue of $23.28-$23.51 billion (9-10% growth) and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $22.88-$23.12 (23-24% growth). Sep 8, 2026: The lead-plaintiff deadline passed in the securities class action against Intuit over its TurboTax pricing disclosures, moving the case toward active litigation. Aug 25, 2026: Intuit reported Q4 and full-year fiscal 2026 results. Full-year revenue passed $20 billion, and its newer 'Big Bets' products grew 34% combined. Intuit also set fiscal 2027 guidance of 9-10% total revenue growth. Jun 2, 2026: Following the May added: 2026 stock decline, law firms opened a securities fraud investigation into Intuit over its statements about TurboTax pricing ahead of and during the 2026 tax season. May 20, 2026: Intuit reported Q3 fiscal 2026 revenue of $8.56 billion, up 10.5%. The company also announced it would cut about 3,000 jobs, 17% of its workforce, to refocus spending on AI. Feb 24, 2026: Intuit announced a multi-year partnership with Anthropic, to build Claude-based AI agents into TurboTax, QuickBooks, Credit Karma, and Mailchimp.