IHG changes

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View the full Nov 12, 2026 version

Price: $181.41
Discount category: Far above intrinsic value
Next earnings: Feb 23, 2027
Next earnings is estimate: No
Company name: added: InterContinental Hotels Group
Sector: added: Hotel franchising and management
About: added: InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG) is a global hotel company based in Windsor, United Kingdom. It has 21 hotel brands, among them Holiday Inn Express, Holiday Inn, Crowne Plaza, InterContinental, Kimpton, Six Senses and voco, and the IHG One Rewards loyalty program with more than 160 million members. At September 30, 2026, its system had 7,186 hotels with 1,060 thousand rooms in more than 100 countries, and its pipeline had 2,426 hotels with 353 thousand rooms. IHG calls itself asset-light. The Form 20-F says that at December 31, 2025, 73% of its rooms were franchised and 27% were managed, and that its revenue is mostly the fees that owners pay. In the first half of 2026, revenue from the fee business was $971 million of $1,255 million revenue from reportable segments, and operating profit from reportable segments was $665 million. Elie Maalouf is Chief Executive Officer. IHG files Form 20-F and Form 6-K with the SEC. It reports in US dollars under IFRS Accounting Standards. Its ordinary shares trade in London, and its American Depositary Shares (ADSs) trade on the New York Stock Exchange in US dollars. The Form 20-F states that each ADS represents one ordinary share.
Thesis: added: The price of IHG depends on whether it can keep adjusted earnings growth at the top of its target range while it returns cash to shareholders. Owners of the hotels pay IHG fees, so each new room adds fee income with little capital from IHG. The CEO says that 2026 is the fifth year in a row of faster net room growth. In Q3 2026, global RevPAR (revenue per available room) rose 5.3% and net system growth was 4.9%, and the fee margin was 65.9% in the first half. IHG also buys back its shares, with $707 million of a $950 million program done by October 21, 2026. Investors pay for this record. Three things must hold for the price to hold or rise. RevPAR must keep growing, although Greater China fell 3.3% in Q3 and the GCC countries fell 12% because of the conflict in the Middle East. Net system growth must stay near 5% as the pipeline of 353 thousand rooms opens. Adjusted EPS must grow 12% to 15% a year, while adjusted interest expense rises, which the company expects to be $40 million to $60 million more in 2027 (a preliminary view). The next tests are the 2026 results on February 23, 2027 and the Q1 trading update, expected in early May 2027.
Risks: added: Hotel demand moves with the economy and with travel patterns. RevPAR in Greater China fell 3.3% in Q3 2026 and in the six GCC countries it fell 12%, because of the conflict in the Middle East. Growth in adjusted EPS depends on net room growth and rising fees. A slowdown in openings, or more hotels leaving the system, would cut fee income, which is the main source of profit. Net debt was $3,663 million at June 30, 2026, which is 2.63 times adjusted EBITDA. IHG expects the ratio to stay in its range of 2.5 to 3.0 times at the end of 2026, and its adjusted interest expense is rising. IHG earns in several currencies and reports in US dollars. It has euro bonds that it swaps into US dollars, and a change in rates or currencies would change its interest cost and its profit.
Balance sheet: added: At June 30, 2026, IHG had cash and cash equivalents of $798 million (net of overdrafts and restricted cash) and undrawn bank facilities of $1,500 million, which is total liquidity of $2,298 million. Loans and other borrowings were $4,147 million, of which $1,046 million were current. Net debt was $3,663 million, up $330 million from the start of the year, after $564 million of dividends and buybacks. The ratio of net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 2.63 times, and the target range is 2.5 to 3.0 times. In September 2026, IHG issued bonds of EUR 850 million. In August 2026, a bond of GBP 350 million matured. After currency swaps, IHG has $4.6 billion of bonds with a blended cost of about 5.1%. The next bond to mature is EUR 500 million in May 2027, and the last is EUR 500 million in September 2033. IHG expects adjusted interest expense of $230 million to $240 million for 2026. As of Jun 30, 2026.
Checkpoints: added: Feb 23, 2027: 2026 results: adjusted EPS growth. Pending. Watch: Adjusted EPS grows 14% or more for 2026 and the range for 2027 interest expense is no worse than $40 million to $60 million more, and this passes; slower growth fails. May 2027 (estimate): Q1 2027 trading update. Pending. Watch: Global RevPAR grows 3% or more and net system growth stays near 5%, and this passes; slower growth in either fails. Aug 2027 (estimate): Half-year 2027 results. Pending. Watch: The fee margin rises above the 65.9% of the first half of 2026 and the buyback goes on, and this passes; a lower fee margin fails.
Recent events: added: Oct 22, 2026: IHG gave its Q3 2026 trading update. Global RevPAR rose 5.3%, with the Americas up 6.8%, EMEAA up 5.0% and Greater China down 3.3%. In the first nine months, 289 hotels opened and 516 were signed. IHG said that adjusted EPS growth for 2026 will be around the top end of its target of 12% to 15% a year. Oct 22, 2026: IHG said that $707 million of its $950 million share buyback for 2026 was done, with 4.7 million shares bought. It expects to return more than $1.2 billion to shareholders in 2026 through buybacks and dividends. Sep 28, 2026: IHG's finance subsidiary issued two euro bonds: EUR 350 million at 4.000% due September 28, 2029 and EUR 500 million at 4.625% due September 28, 2033. Currency swaps turned them into $402 million at 5.5% and $574 million at 6.0%. Sep 11, 2026: IHG set its interim dividend for 2026 at 64.5 cents per share, or 47.6 pence, payable on October 1, 2026. Aug 11, 2026: IHG reported results for the first half of 2026. Operating profit from reportable segments rose 10% to $665 million, and adjusted EPS rose 13% to 274.7 cents. Net debt was $3,663 million at June 30, 2026. Feb 26, 2026: IHG filed its Form 20-F for 2025. Adjusted EPS was 501.3 cents, up 15.9%.