FRPT changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $66.63 → $64.52(−3.2%)
- Next earnings
- Nov 4, 2026 → Feb 4, 2027
- Next earnings is estimate
- No → Yes
- About
- Freshpet makes fresh, refrigerated food and treats for dogs and cats. It cooks the food in its own kitchens in the United States and sells it mainly through company-owned branded refrigerators, called Freshpet Fridges, in retail stores. At June 30, 2026, it had Freshpet Fridges in about 30,721 stores in North America and parts of Europe. It sells through grocery, mass, club, pet specialty and online channels. Net sales were removed: $305.6 added: $317.8 million in removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026, up removed: 15.5% added: 10.0% from a year earlier. Freshpet believes that fresh pet food can become a $10 billion category over time.
- Thesis
- The market prices Freshpet for slower sales growth and for the risk that new competitors in fresh pet food take its customers. removed: Freshpet expects net added: Net sales growth removed: of 10% added: slowed to removed: 12% added: 10.0% in added: Q3 2026, removed: slower than the added: from 13.1% and 15.5% removed: of added: in Q1 and Q2, removed: and it named new competitors, economic headwinds and an uncertain consumer as challenges. It also faces added: against a removed: harder added: hard comparison removed: in Q3 2026, after a large club customer expansion a year earlier. Freshpet added: calls the consumer environment challenging and the competition intense. It spends heavily on new production lines, removed: about added: $125 million to $150 million in 2026, so free cash flow is still small. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Net sales growth must removed: stay in added: reach the removed: 10% to 12% added: to 13% range in 2026 and stay faster than the category in 2027. The adjusted gross margin must removed: keep rising toward added: stay at or above the removed: new added: 2027 target of removed: more than added: at least 49%, as new production technology lowers costs. Free cash flow must removed: grow beyond 2025, as the company expects, added: keep growing, so that removed: it added: Freshpet can fund growth and buybacks without new debt. The Q3 2026 report on November 4, 2026 removed: gives added: passed its test: the removed: next test. added: adjusted gross margin reached 50.0%, and Freshpet raised its 2026 sales growth outlook to 12% to 13%. The 2027 outlook in February 2027 is the main test. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is that competition and a weak consumer slow sales growth further.
- Risks
- Other pet food companies now sell fresh and refrigerated products. Freshpet says that many competitors try to copy it. More competition can slow its growth and force higher marketing spend or lower prices. Freshpet sells premium pet food. If consumers spend less, they can trade down to cheaper pet food. Freshpet named the uncertain consumer environment as a risk to its 2026 sales. Freshpet needs new production lines and new technology to grow and to lift margins. Delays, higher costs or quality problems at new lines would reduce profits. Senior leaders removed: change: added: changed: a new CFO joined in February removed: 2026 and added: 2026, the co-founder and President removed: retires added: retired in October added: 2026, and the COO, Nicola Baty, became President on October 21, 2026. Changes in leaders can slow decisions.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: removed: $351M added: $346M Debt: $403M Net debt: removed: $52M added: $57M Last debt due: 2028 removed: Freshpet has more cash than debt. At removed: June added: September 30, 2026, cash was removed: $350.8 added: $345.9 million. removed: Its added: Freshpet's only debt was $402.5 million of 3.00% convertible senior notes due removed: in added: April 1, 2028, carried at removed: $398.4 million. added: $399.0 million, so cash covered about 86% of the debt. Freshpet can settle the notes in cash, shares or both, and a capped call reduces the dilution if the shares rise. It also has finance leases of about $29 million. Operating cash flow was removed: $84.8 added: $145.5 million in the first removed: half added: nine months of 2026, and free cash flow was removed: $27.4 added: $65.3 million after capital spending. Freshpet expects removed: capital spending of about $150 million in 2026 and added: positive free cash flow removed: above that added: in 2026 with capital spending of removed: 2025. added: $125 million to $150 million. It started buybacks in May 2026 and removed: spent $86.5 added: bought 1.8 million removed: by added: shares for $102.5 million in the removed: end added: first nine months of removed: July. added: 2026. It also received $100.0 million from the sale of an equity investment. As of removed: Jun added: Sep 30, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- Nov 4, 2026: Q3 2026 results: growth against a hard comparison. removed: Pending. added: Passed. Watch: Net sales growth that keeps the 2026 guidance of 10% to 12% and a higher adjusted gross margin pass; a cut in guidance fails. added: Outcome: Net sales rose 10.0%, the adjusted gross margin rose to 50.0% from 46.0%, and Freshpet raised its 2026 sales growth outlook to 12% to 13%. Feb added: 4, 2027 (estimate): added: Q4 2026 results and 2027 outlook: growth and free cash flow. Pending. Watch: A 2027 outlook with net sales growth near 10% or more and higher free cash flow passes; an outlook for single-digit growth fails.
- Recent events
- added: Nov 4, 2026: Freshpet reported Q3 2026 results. Net sales rose 10.0% to $317.8 million, all from volume gains. The adjusted gross margin rose to 50.0% from 46.0%, net income was $29.7 million, or $0.58 per diluted share, and adjusted EBITDA rose to $64.5 million. Free cash flow was $65.3 million in the first nine months of 2026. Freshpet raised its 2026 outlook to net sales growth of 12% to 13% and adjusted EBITDA of $215 million to $220 million, with capital spending of $125 million to $150 million. It kept its 2027 targets: sales growth well above the category, an adjusted gross margin of at least 49% and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 20% to 22%. Oct 21, 2026: Nicola Baty, the Chief Operating Officer, became President of Freshpet in addition to her role as COO, after co-founder Scott Morris retired. Aug 5, 2026: Freshpet reported Q2 2026 results. Net sales rose 15.5% to $305.6 million, mainly from volume gains of 15.7%. The adjusted gross margin rose to 48.6% from 46.9%, net income was $19.5 million and adjusted EBITDA was $52.2 million. Freshpet raised its 2026 outlook to net sales growth of 10% to 12% and adjusted EBITDA of $210 million to $220 million. It raised its long-term adjusted gross margin target to more than 49%. Jun 22, 2026: Freshpet said that Scott Morris, its co-founder and President, will retire on October 20, 2026. He will then advise the company for 18 months. May 21, 2026: Freshpet announced its first share repurchase program. By the end of July 2026, it had bought back 1.6 million shares for $86.5 million. May 6, 2026: Freshpet reported Q1 2026 results. Net sales rose 13.1% to $297.6 million. Net income was $48.5 million, which includes a pre-tax gain on the sale of an equity investment. Adjusted EBITDA was $37.9 million. Freshpet raised its 2026 net sales growth guidance. Feb 4, 2026: Freshpet appointed John O'Connor as Chief Financial Officer from February 9, 2026, and Ana Lopez as Senior Vice President of Supply Chain. Ivan Garcia, the interim CFO since October 2025, became Senior Vice President of Finance.