- Company name
- Comfort Systems USA
- Sector
- HVAC and electrical contracting services
- About
- Comfort Systems USA, Inc. designs, installs, maintains and repairs mechanical and electrical systems in commercial, industrial and institutional buildings in the United States, from 211 locations in 155 cities. Its mechanical segment (HVAC, plumbing, piping, controls, off-site construction and fire protection) made 68.6% of revenue in Q3 2026, and its electrical segment made 31.4%. Technology customers, mainly data centers, made 60.8% of Q3 2026 revenue, against 45.8% a year earlier, and manufacturing made 16.8%. New construction was 76.2% of revenue. Revenue was $3.77 billion in Q3 2026, and backlog was $17.81 billion at September 30, 2026. Brian Lane is Chief Executive Officer. The company has almost no debt and paid a dividend of $0.90 per share in Q3 2026. The pick is the common stock on the NYSE (FIX), in US dollars.
- Thesis
- The market prices Comfort Systems as a builder whose profit is tied to a data center building boom that may not last. Data centers drive most of the growth: technology customers were 60.8% of revenue in Q3 2026, and backlog grew to $17.81 billion from $9.38 billion a year earlier. Revenue rose 54% in Q3 2026 and net income per diluted share rose 69% to $13.91. The company says that it expects to grow organically through 2027 and to keep profit levels high, and it expects 65% to 75% of backlog to become revenue within 12 months. For the price to rise, backlog must keep turning into revenue at the current profit margin, and new orders must replace the data center work that ends. Fixed-price contracts lose money if labor and materials cost more than bid. The Q4 report in February 2027 and its backlog are the next test. If backlog and margins hold, the gap can close within about two years.
- Risks
- Data center dependence. Technology customers made 60.8% of revenue in Q3 2026. A pause in spending by a few large customers would cut new orders and, later, revenue and profit.
Contract estimates may be wrong. Comfort Systems books revenue as costs are incurred, and many jobs have fixed prices. If labor or materials cost more than bid, it must reverse profit that it already booked.
Labor and equipment. Over the last several years, Comfort Systems has seen higher labor costs and late deliveries of some materials and equipment. A shortage of skilled workers can slow jobs and raise costs.
The profit margin is high. Adjusted EBITDA was 17.7% of revenue in Q3 2026, against 16.9% a year earlier and 15.3% for the first nine months of 2025. A return to lower margins would cut earnings per share even if revenue grows.
- Balance sheet
- At September 30, 2026, Comfort Systems had cash of $2,158.0 million and total debt of $49.6 million, with no borrowings on its revolving credit facility. Debt was notes to former owners of $48.95 million and other debt of $0.6 million. Total stockholders' equity was $3,335.2 million, against $2,448.8 million at December 31, 2025. Billings in excess of costs and deferred revenue were $3,872.0 million, against $2,120.3 million. It had 34,985,904 shares outstanding at October 16, 2026, and 6,129,102 treasury shares at September 30, 2026. Comfort Systems paid dividends of $2.40 per share in the first nine months of 2026. All amounts are in US dollars.
As of Sep 30, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- Feb 18, 2027 (estimate): Q4 2026 results: backlog and margin. Pending. Watch: Backlog above $17.81 billion with adjusted EBITDA of 17% of revenue or more passes; a lower backlog or margin fails.
Oct 2027 (estimate): Q3 2027 results: revenue growth. Pending. Watch: Revenue above $3.77 billion for the quarter passes; lower revenue fails.
- Recent events
- Nov 5, 2026: Comfort Systems said that its board added 994,606 shares to its stock repurchase program, so that up to 1,000,000 shares can be bought. Since the program began, it bought 11,752,570 shares for $1,711,769,315 through November 4, 2026.
Oct 22, 2026: Comfort Systems reported Q3 2026 results. Revenue rose to $3.77 billion from $2.45 billion, net income was $489.0 million ($13.91 per diluted share) and adjusted EBITDA was $667.9 million, or 17.7% of revenue. Backlog was $17.81 billion, against $14.06 billion at June 30, 2026. Operating cash flow was $1.01 billion. The company declared a quarterly dividend for holders of record on November 12, 2026.
Oct 22, 2026: In its Form 10-Q, Comfort Systems said that it had no borrowings on its revolving credit facility at September 30, 2026, against $100.0 million at December 31, 2025. It held cash of $2,158.0 million.