EXPGY changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Discount category
- Far below intrinsic value → Below intrinsic value
- About
- Experian is one of the world's largest credit bureaus. It collects data on how people and businesses borrow and repay removed: money, then added: money. It sells credit reports, removed: scores, added: scores and analytics to banks, lenders, removed: insurers, added: insurers and other businesses that removed: need to added: must decide removed: who to added: whom they lend removed: to or added: with whom they do removed: business with. Its biggest market is added: business. North removed: America, added: America is its largest market, with about 67% of removed: revenue, where it added: revenue in the year to March 2026. There, Experian also runs Experian Health and a large removed: auto-data added: automotive data business. Latin America, mostly Brazil through removed: its added: the Serasa brand, removed: is added: gives about 15% of removed: revenue, followed by the added: revenue. The UK and Ireland removed: at 11% added: give 11%, and EMEA and Asia Pacific removed: at added: give 7%. removed: Alongside its business-to-business data business, Experian added: also runs a large Consumer Services removed: arm added: business with more than 215 million free members removed: worldwide, who added: worldwide. They get free credit removed: monitoring added: reports and removed: identity protection, with added: monitoring, and some pay for premium subscriptions removed: and product tie-ins like earned-wage access as a smaller extra revenue stream. added: or identity protection. Experian is incorporated in removed: Jersey but tax-resident added: Jersey, is tax resident in removed: Ireland, with added: Ireland and has its head office in Dublin. Its main listing is on the London Stock Exchange, where it is removed: a FTSE 100 constituent; added: in the added: FTSE 100. Each US ADR removed: (EXPGY), each representing added: (EXPGY) is one ordinary removed: share, added: share and trades over the counter on OTCQX. Brian Cassin has been CEO since added: July 2014.
- Thesis
- Investors removed: worry added: fear that added: lenders will need less credit bureau data. AI tools and new removed: competitors will added: data sources can let lenders score borrowers without removed: paying a removed: credit bureau, added: bureau. US mortgage policy now adds a removed: company added: second fear. FICO announced in October 2025 that removed: collects and sells consumer credit data. FICO's move to added: it will license added: mortgage scores directly to removed: mortgage lenders, starting in October 2025, showed this fear is not only theoretical. A weaker US dollar added: lenders. In September 2026 the head of the FHFA, the regulator of Fannie Mae and removed: worries about US consumer credit have added added: Freddie Mac, opened VantageScore 4.0 to added: all of their lenders and said that the removed: pressure. added: bureaus charge too much. In October 2026 Bloomberg reported that the FHFA will let lenders pull credit reports from two bureaus instead of three. The gap can close if Experian keeps organic revenue growth inside its removed: 6%-8% guided range, added: 6% to 8% guidance for fiscal 2027, as it did removed: in fiscal Q1 2027 with 7% removed: organic growth reported in removed: July 2026. It also needs to keep showing that its own proprietary data, not just its score calculations, is what lenders added: the first quarter. North America B2B growth must stay strong while the mortgage rules change, and removed: insurers actually pay for. added: the new cash flow data and fraud products must add growth. A removed: resolution of added: settlement or ruling in the CFPB lawsuit over removed: "sham" dispute removed: investigations, added: investigations without a large removed: penalty, added: penalty would remove a removed: second source of added: smaller doubt. removed: Experian reports added: The evidence comes with the half-year removed: FY27 results on November 18, removed: 2026. That is added: 2026, the removed: next point where investors can check organic growth against guidance. added: third-quarter update in January 2027 and the full-year results with fiscal 2028 guidance in May 2027. If growth holds through removed: that report and added: these reports, the removed: one after it, the discount added: gap can removed: start to close over the next two to four quarters. removed: But if a new entrant added: If the mortgage changes or removed: an AI removed: tool proves it can score credit risk without paying added: scoring cause a removed: bureau, added: clear loss of volume, the removed: discount could added: gap can stay removed: wide, or widen, added: open for removed: years rather than close. added: years.
- Risks
- removed: Investors worry that added: Lenders can need less bureau data if AI tools removed: will added: or new data sources let removed: lenders assess creditworthiness added: them score borrowers without removed: paying a removed: bureau, and FICO's added: bureau. The FICO plan from October 2025 removed: move to sell mortgage scores directly to lenders shows added: that a removed: major added: large partner is removed: already willing added: ready to removed: cut added: remove the bureaus removed: out of added: from part of the fee chain. This removed: fear, more than any single quarter's results, added: fear is removed: why the removed: stock trades well below intrinsic value. added: main reason for the price. US mortgage policy is moving against the bureaus. In September 2026 the FHFA opened VantageScore 4.0 to all lenders of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and said that the bureaus charge too much. In October 2026 Bloomberg reported a plan to accept reports from two bureaus instead of three. Each bureau can then lose some mortgage report volume and some pricing power. The CFPB is suing Experian Information Solutions over alleged "sham" investigations of consumer removed: credit-report disputes. removed: A federal added: The court let the case removed: proceed past a motion to dismiss added: continue in October 2025, and discovery removed: is ongoing. An adverse outcome added: continues. A loss could bring removed: financial penalties and removed: force costlier dispute-handling added: more costly dispute processes. North America removed: is added: gives about two-thirds of group revenue and removed: is tied to added: depends on US consumer credit and mortgage activity. removed: A slowdown in added: Less US lending, a weaker labor removed: market, added: market or removed: reduced mortgage originations added: fewer mortgages would removed: directly cut added: decrease the removed: volume added: number of reports and scores added: that Experian sells. US political pressure on consumer removed: lending, including proposals to cap credit card interest rates and continued scrutiny of data brokers and credit bureaus, could restrict added: lending can limit how Experian collects, removed: prices, added: prices or uses consumer data. added: In January 2026 President Trump called for a 10% cap on credit card interest rates, and bills for such a cap are in Congress. Experian reports in US dollars but earns removed: significant added: much revenue in British pounds, Brazilian removed: real, added: reais and other currencies. removed: Swings added: Changes in the dollar removed: can make reported growth look better or worse than the removed: underlying business. Experian removed: has been making frequent bolt-on acquisitions (idwall, KYC360, ClearSale, added: buys many small companies (ClearSale in 2025, KYC360 in 2025, Own Up and removed: others) added: Konfir in April 2026, idwall in July 2026) to add removed: fraud and added: fraud, identity removed: capabilities. Integrating several deals at once adds execution risk even though none of them added: and data products. Each deal is removed: individually large. Experian is going through a chair transition, with Adam Crozier succeeding long-serving chair Mike Rogers in July 2026. Governance transitions like this rarely move the stock on their own, added: small, but removed: they add a small amount of uncertainty added: many integrations at the removed: board level. added: same time add execution risk.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: $326M Debt: $5.5B Net debt: $5.2B EBITDA, last 12 months: $3.0B Net debt / EBITDA: 1.7× (low) Interest cover: removed: 11× added: 13× Undrawn credit line: $2.5B Debt due within 12 months: $572M Last debt due: removed: 2035 added: 2036 Ratings: S&P A- (stable outlook), Moody's A3 (stable outlook) Experian reports in US dollars. removed: Its added: Most of its debt is removed: mostly unsecured bonds that the group issues removed: centrally, and leverage is added: centrally. Net debt was 1.7 times Benchmark EBITDA at March 31, 2026, below the group's own added: range of 2.0 to 2.5 removed: times range, which added: times. This gives room removed: to fund added: for the removed: new $1 billion removed: buyback and added: buyback, more removed: bolt-on deals added: small acquisitions and removed: to keep a strong credit rating. At March 31, 2026, debt was $5,028 million of bonds and notes, $278 million of commercial paper, $90 million of bank loans and $133 million of leases. removed: The reported added: Reported net debt was $5,179 removed: million. added: million, which includes a $24 million derivative asset that hedges the debt. The amount due within one year counts the bonds only. removed: EBITDA is Benchmark EBITDA for the year to March 2026, and interest added: Interest cover is Benchmark EBIT of $2,397 million removed: over added: divided by net interest expense of added: $185 million (interest expense of $219 removed: million. added: million less interest income of $34 million). The bonds are in euros, US dollars and pounds, mostly at fixed rates. A 500 million euro bond fell due on June 25, 2026. added: On June 17, 2026 Experian sold a $1 billion 5.35% bond due in August 2036. The next bond added: to fall due is a 300 million euro removed: floating-rate added: floating rate note removed: due added: in March 2028. added: In April and May 2026 Experian signed two new $250 million bank loans. The company expects net interest of $250 added: million to $260 million in fiscal 2027. The removed: UK pension removed: plan added: plans had a net surplus of $183 million. Goodwill and other removed: intangibles from acquisitions make up most added: intangible assets of added: $10,339 million are almost twice the removed: $5.6 billion of net removed: assets. added: assets of $5,583 million, because of past acquisitions and buybacks. As of Mar 31, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- Jul 16, 2026: Q1 FY27 trading update: organic growth against guidance. Passed. Watch: Organic revenue growth inside the 6% to 8% range with guidance kept passes; growth below 6% or a guidance cut fails. Outcome: Organic revenue grew 7% and Experian kept its full-year guidance unchanged. added: Oct 2026 (estimate): FHFA decision on credit reports from two bureaus. Pending. Watch: No change, or a change that starts slowly and keeps Experian in most mortgage files, passes; an immediate move to two bureaus with lower report prices fails. Nov 18, 2026: H1 FY27 results: organic growth, margin and leverage. Pending. Watch: Organic growth of 6% to 8% with a higher Benchmark EBIT margin passes; growth below 6% or weaker North America B2B growth fails. Jan 2027 (estimate): Q3 FY27 trading update. Pending. Watch: Organic growth stays inside the 6% to 8% range with no sign that lenders are dropping bureau data passes; a slowdown below 6% fails. May 2027 (estimate): FY27 full-year results and FY28 guidance. Pending. Watch: Full-year organic growth of 6% to 8% and FY28 guidance for similar growth pass; lower FY28 growth guidance because of removed: AI or added: AI, score competition added: or mortgage rule changes fails.
- Recent events
- added: Oct 6, 2026: Experian launched the Experian Cashflow Data Bureau, a new US consumer reporting agency for bank-account cash flow data that lenders can use with credit files. Oct 1, 2026: Bloomberg reported that the FHFA plans to let Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac accept credit reports from any two of the three national bureaus instead of all three. The report said that the FHFA director was expected to announce the change at the Mortgage Bankers Association convention on October 12, 2026. US bureau shares fell on October 2. Sep removed: 9, added: 4, 2026: added: FHFA director Bill Pulte told Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac removed: opened added: to accept VantageScore 4.0 removed: to added: from all approved removed: mortgage lenders. removed: Lenders no longer need prior written approval. added: This ended a pilot for at most 50 lenders that started on May 1, 2026. He said that the bureaus charge too much and that the FHFA was considering reports from two bureaus. The Experian added: ADR fell 4.8% to $37.91 on the day. Experian co-owns VantageScore with Equifax and TransUnion. Jul added: 22, 2026: Shareholders approved all 17 resolutions at the annual meeting. Adam Crozier was elected with 98.97% of votes and became chair after the meeting. Brian Cassin was re-elected with 99.37%. Jul 16, 2026: removed: Experian's added: The Q1 FY27 trading update showed total revenue up 10% at actual removed: rates, added: exchange rates and 7% organically, in the middle of removed: its 6%-8% full-year added: the 6% to 8% guidance removed: range. added: for the full year. North America B2B grew 11% removed: organically while added: organically. North America Consumer Services fell 2% removed: as a data-breach response contract wound down. Full-year guidance was left unchanged. added: because two data breach support contracts ended; without them it grew 3%. Experian did not change its full-year guidance. Jul 1, 2026: removed: Experian's Brazilian unit, Serasa, added: the Brazilian unit of Experian, completed removed: its acquisition added: the purchase of idwall, a removed: digital-identity added: digital identity and removed: fraud-prevention specialist, for added: fraud prevention company. Experian did not disclose the price. Brazilian press reports gave about BRL 400 removed: million (roughly $71 million). added: million. Jun 17, 2026: Experian sold a US$1 billion bond with a 5.35% coupon, due on August 24, 2036. The money is for general purposes, which include the repayment of debt. May 20, 2026: Experian reported removed: record FY26 full-year results removed: (year ended added: for FY26, the year to March 31, removed: 2026): added: 2026. Ongoing revenue removed: of added: was $8,425 million, up 13% at actual added: exchange rates and 8% removed: organically; added: organically. The Benchmark EBIT margin removed: of added: was 28.6%, up removed: 50-60 added: 50 basis removed: points; added: points at actual rates. Benchmark EPS removed: up added: rose 15%. The board removed: raised added: increased the full-year dividend added: by 11% to 69.25 US removed: cents added: cents. Experian bought back $725 million of shares in FY26 and announced a new $1 billion buyback through June removed: 2027, after buying back $725 million added: 2027. FY27 guidance is 6% to 8% organic growth and a margin gain of removed: stock in FY26. Shares still fell on the day on continued AI-disruption worries despite the beat. added: about 50 basis points. Apr 21, 2026: Experian named Adam Crozier, added: chair of BT Group and a former CEO of removed: ITV and Royal Mail, added: ITV, as removed: chair-designate, added: chair designate. He was to removed: succeed added: replace Mike Rogers as chair removed: once added: after the July 2026 annual removed: meeting concluded. added: meeting. Jan 26, 2026: Experian shares removed: extended a slide added: fell to a two-year removed: low, down about 13% for the month, after analysts (including added: low. Analysts, including Panmure removed: Liberum) pointed to fears added: Liberum, named the fear that AI will disrupt added: credit bureaus, the removed: credit-bureau business, alongside a weak US dollar and removed: FICO's move added: the FICO plan to sell mortgage removed: credit scores directly to lenders. added: The fall started after the Q3 FY26 trading update of January 21, 2026, which showed 8% organic growth. Nov 12, 2025: Experian reported H1 FY26 removed: results (six added: results, for the six months to September 30, removed: 2025): total revenue up added: 2025. Revenue grew 12% at constant removed: currency, added: exchange rates and 8% removed: organically, with organic added: organically. Organic growth removed: accelerating added: increased from 8% in Q1 to 9% in Q2. Benchmark EBIT grew removed: 14% added: 14%, and added: the margin rose 50 basis points. The board removed: raised added: increased the interim dividend added: by 10% added: to 21.25 US cents and removed: lifted added: moved full-year removed: organic revenue guidance to removed: the top of its prior range, around 8%. added: about 8% organic growth. Oct 22, 2025: A US federal court denied removed: Experian's added: the motion added: of Experian to dismiss the removed: Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's January 2025 removed: lawsuit, which alleges added: CFPB lawsuit. The lawsuit says that Experian removed: ran added: did "sham investigations" of consumer removed: credit-report disputes removed: in violation of added: about credit reports, against the Fair Credit Reporting removed: Act, and ordered added: Act. The court told Experian to answer the complaint. removed: Litigation is ongoing, with a added: In January 2026 the court removed: ruling on Experian's affirmative added: struck some of the defenses removed: following in January 2026. added: of Experian. Oct 2, 2025: FICO announced added: that it will license its credit scores directly to mortgage removed: resellers added: lenders and removed: lenders, letting them bypass added: resellers, so that they can pay less to bureaus removed: like added: such as Experian for removed: part of the mortgage removed: credit-score fee. added: scores. On October 14, 2025, Experian removed: responded by cutting the price of added: made its removed: own VantageScore 4.0 removed: offering and offering it added: mortgage scores free added: of charge for removed: a limited time. added: an indefinite period.