D changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $63.56 → $66.62(+4.8%)
- Discount category
- Below intrinsic value → Close to intrinsic value
- Next earnings
- Oct 30, 2026 → Jan 30, 2027
- Next earnings is estimate
- No → Yes
- Thesis
- The market prices Dominion as a fixed part of NextEra Energy plus deal risk. Since the merger agreement of May 2026, each Dominion share is worth 0.8138 NextEra shares and a small cash amount at closing, so the stock moves with NextEra's share price. The price also includes a discount for the risk that regulators delay the deal or set conditions. The merger needs approvals from FERC, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the utility commissions of Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina, without a burdensome condition. In September 2026, the companies made their offer to Virginia larger, with four years of residential bill credits instead of two and other commitments paid by shareholders. In October 2026, the staff of the Virginia State Corporation Commission (SCC) recommended that the SCC reject the merger unless the companies accept 57 conditions, and Virginia's governor asked for a six-year freeze of residential base rates. The analysts' intrinsic value is for Dominion on its own, so the gap will probably not close while the deal is pending. It can close only in two ways. NextEra's share price can rise, which lifts the value of the exchange ratio. Or the merger can fail, and the market must then value Dominion on its own at a higher price, which is not certain. The companies expect the deal to close removed: 12 to 18 months after May 2026, so between about May and November added: in the second half of 2027. The removed: Q3 2026 report on October 30, 2026, the SCC hearing from November 17, 2026, the added: South Carolina hearing in December 2026, the SCC decision, which state law requires by January 11, 2027, and the removed: decisions of the other commissions added: North Carolina hearings from February 2027 are the dated tests. The main reason the gap may not close is that the price stays tied to NextEra until the deal closes or fails.
- Balance sheet
- Cash: removed: $296M added: $435M Debt: removed: $53.4B added: $54.6B Net debt: removed: $53.1B added: $54.2B Debt due within 12 months: removed: $6.7B added: $5.7B Dominion funds its large building program with senior notes, junior subordinated notes, commercial paper and equity. At removed: June added: September 30, 2026, total debt was removed: $53.4 added: $54.6 billion. This includes long-term debt of removed: $46.7 added: $48.9 billion, of which $7.5 billion is junior subordinated notes and $794 million is securitization bonds, removed: $4.0 added: $2.4 billion of securities due within one removed: year, $2.5 added: year and $3.3 billion of short-term removed: debt and $200 million added: debt. Nothing was drawn on removed: a added: the supplemental credit facility. Cash was removed: $296 added: $435 million. Interest and related charges were removed: $555 added: $623 million in removed: Q2 added: Q3 2026, up from removed: $505 added: $527 million a year earlier. removed: In June 2026, Dominion issued $825 million of senior notes due 2036 and $1.5 billion of junior subordinated notes due 2056. The merger agreement limits some financing and other actions until closing, added: such as debt or equity issues above a set amount and added: quarterly dividends above $0.6675 per share without NextEra's consent. NextEra expects the combination to improve the credit ratings of Dominion and Dominion Energy Virginia. As of removed: Jun added: Sep 30, 2026.
- Checkpoints
- Oct 30, 2026: Q3 2026 earnings and merger approvals. removed: Pending. added: Passed. Watch: Operating earnings in line with the 2026 guidance and progress on the state merger approvals pass; lower guidance or a new delay in the approval schedule fails. added: Outcome: Operating earnings rose to $1.28 per share, Dominion now expects the top half of its 2026 guidance, and the state commissions set hearing schedules with final orders in Virginia and South Carolina expected in January 2027. Jan 11, 2027 (estimate): Virginia SCC decision on the merger. Pending. Watch: Approval with conditions that the companies accept passes; a rejection, or conditions that the companies refuse, fails. added: Jan 30, 2027 (estimate): added: Q4 2026 earnings and merger progress. Pending. Watch: 2026 operating earnings in the top half of $3.45 to $3.69 per share and no new delay in the merger approvals pass; lower earnings or a delay fails. 2027 (estimate): Merger closes with NextEra. Pending. Watch: Approval by the Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina commissions without a burdensome condition, and a close between May and November 2027, pass; a rejection, a new large condition or a delay past 2027 fails.
- Recent events
- Oct added: 30, 2026: Dominion reported Q3 2026 results. GAAP net income was $1.30 per share, and operating earnings rose to $1.28 per share from $1.06. Dominion said that it expects 2026 operating earnings in the top half of its guidance of $3.45 to $3.69 per share, and it reaffirmed its credit, dividend and long-term growth guidance. Its Q3 2026 Form 10-Q says that Dominion and NextEra filed for clearance under the HSR antitrust law in October 2026 and that the estimated cost of the CVOW project stays at about $11.7 billion. Oct 21, 2026: In its Q3 2026 release, NextEra Energy said that the Virginia and South Carolina commissions set hearings for November and December 2026, and that the companies expect final orders from both in January 2027. The North Carolina Utilities Commission set expert witness hearings that start in February 2027. NextEra kept its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $3.92 to $4.02 and targets the high end. Oct 19, 2026: The staff of the Virginia State Corporation Commission filed testimony that the merger, as proposed, fails the Utility Transfers Act. Staff recommended rejection unless the companies accept 57 binding conditions, 25 of which the companies already proposed. The new conditions include a bankruptcy-remote entity to ring-fence Dominion Energy Virginia and four board members not related to NextEra. Governor Spanberger also asked for rejection unless the companies meet 10 commitments, including a six-year freeze of residential base rates. The companies said they will answer through the SCC process. The evidentiary hearing starts on November 17, 2026, and the SCC must decide by January 11, 2027. Sep 14, 2026: NextEra Energy and Dominion announced a larger Virginia benefits package for the merger. It doubles residential bill credits from two years to four years, adds $100 million to the EnergyShare bill assistance program through 2038 and promises 1,000 new direct jobs in Virginia. All new commitments need approval from the Virginia State Corporation Commission. Sep 3, 2026: Dominion shareholders approved the merger with NextEra Energy. About 671 million votes were for the merger and about 8.6 million were against it. Aug 25, 2026: Dominion said that it received demand letters and that two shareholder lawsuits were filed in New York about the merger proxy statement. Dominion said that the claims have no merit, but it added more disclosures to avoid a delay of the merger. Jul 31, 2026: Dominion reported Q2 2026 results. GAAP net income was $0.37 per share and operating earnings were $0.79 per share, up from $0.75. GAAP income included impairment charges on some nonregulated solar and renewable natural gas facilities. Dominion reaffirmed its 2026 operating earnings guidance of $3.45 to $3.69 per share. Jun 8, 2026: Dominion sold $1.5 billion of junior subordinated notes due 2056. On June 3, 2026, it also sold $825 million of 5.35% senior notes due 2036. May 18, 2026: NextEra Energy and Dominion announced an all-stock merger. Dominion shareholders will receive 0.8138 NextEra shares for each share, plus a share of a $360 million cash payment at closing. The companies proposed $2.25 billion of bill credits for Dominion's customers and expect to close in 12 to 18 months.