CRM changes
Pick any two versions below to diff them.
- Price
- $213.65 → $218.01(+2.0%)
- Next earnings is estimate
- Yes → No
- Thesis
- The market doubts that Salesforce can grow faster when AI agents can do work that paid user seats do now. Without Informatica, revenue grew about 6% in Q2 fiscal 2027 (a calculation from the release figures), much slower than in the past. Salesforce also uses more debt and more purchases. In March 2026, it sold $25.0 billion of notes to pay for a $25 billion accelerated share repurchase, and debt rose to $39.5 billion at July 31, 2026. After Informatica, it bought Contentful and Fin in September 2026, and on October 20, 2026 it agreed to buy Braze for about $5.66 billion. Investors fear that purchases hide slow organic growth. For the gap to close, three things must be true. Organic revenue growth must accelerate in the second half of fiscal 2027, as management expects, with current remaining performance obligation growth near the 14% of Q2. Agentforce and Data 360 ARR, nearly $3.9 billion at July 31, 2026, must keep growing and add revenue instead of replacing seats. Free cash flow must grow 4% to 5% in fiscal 2027, as guided, and keep growing, so that debt can fall while Salesforce moves toward its fiscal 2030 revenue target of more than $63 billion. The Q3 fiscal 2027 removed: report, expected in early added: report on December removed: 2026, added: 2, 2026 is the first test, and the Q4 report with the fiscal 2028 guidance, expected in late February 2027, is the next. If these checks pass, the gap can close over the next four to six quarters. The main reason it may not close is AI agents from other companies, which can lower the number of paid seats that customers buy.
- Checkpoints
- Dec 2, removed: 2026 (estimate): added: 2026: Q3 fiscal 2027 results: organic growth. Pending. Watch: Revenue at or above the guided $11.42 billion to $11.5 billion, current remaining performance obligation growth near 14% and signs of faster organic growth pass; slower growth or lower fiscal 2027 guidance fail. Feb 2027 (estimate): Fiscal 2027 results and fiscal 2028 guidance. Pending. Watch: Free cash flow growth of about 4% to 5% in fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028 guidance that keeps the path to the fiscal 2030 target pass; lower free cash flow or weak fiscal 2028 guidance fail.